Why did Trump underperform in Texas relative to pre 2016 Republicans?
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  Why did Trump underperform in Texas relative to pre 2016 Republicans?
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Author Topic: Why did Trump underperform in Texas relative to pre 2016 Republicans?  (Read 934 times)
Samof94
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« on: June 20, 2021, 12:39:08 PM »
« edited: June 25, 2021, 05:56:43 AM by Samof94 »

Why did Trump underperform(relative to even Romney) so much in Texas and didn’t win by a double digit margin??
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2021, 01:52:43 PM »

Heavy suburban swings against him in places like the DFW area. Biden flipped Tarrant, cut the margins heavily in Denton and Collin, ran up the score in Dallas proper, Austin, Houston, etc. Hillary and Beto had already done some of the work and he just continued those trends.

These suburban and college-educated white Democratic trends existed all over the country and are a big part of why Arizona and Georgia flipped outright. The South was not immune to them, and we’re seeing the education gap being more and more important as the racial gap becomes a bit less important. So even though Trump got big swings with Hispanics in the RGV, he still came closer to losing Texas than any Republican in years.

That’s also because of the numbers game; the places trending D rapidly are also those that are growing most rapidly while the places going the other way are stagnant or shrinking. That’s how Georgia swung over 5 points and flipped. If current trends continue in Texas (which voted about as R as GA did in 2016), it will flip eventually.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2021, 02:53:20 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2021, 03:07:50 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2021, 05:56:48 PM »

Heavy suburban swings against him in places like the DFW area. Biden flipped Tarrant, cut the margins heavily in Denton and Collin, ran up the score in Dallas proper, Austin, Houston, etc. Hillary and Beto had already done some of the work and he just continued those trends.

These suburban and college-educated white Democratic trends existed all over the country and are a big part of why Arizona and Georgia flipped outright. The South was not immune to them, and we’re seeing the education gap being more and more important as the racial gap becomes a bit less important. So even though Trump got big swings with Hispanics in the RGV, he still came closer to losing Texas than any Republican in years.

That’s also because of the numbers game; the places trending D rapidly are also those that are growing most rapidly while the places going the other way are stagnant or shrinking. That’s how Georgia swung over 5 points and flipped. If current trends continue in Texas (which voted about as R as GA did in 2016), it will flip eventually.

The Texas metro areas are not diversifying as much as the Atlanta metro area. There is no remedy to defend the notion that Trump overperformed. I am from Texas. Not only was Beth O'Rourke popular in Dem areas, Cruz was incredibly unpopular even with Trump voters. If Cornyn was on the ballot, I guarantee you he would've won by more. Cruz is a stick in the mud for Dems, because he is a tea party extremist and for Trumper because he refused to endorse Trump early on. In addition, there was a bit of a pushback in the RGV relative to 2016 and Georgia didn't have those massive swing against Biden in any counties.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2021, 06:05:44 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


Yeah, I would argue that Trump managed to do as well as expected, if not better. Though perhaps part of that was unrealistic expectations for the state to flip.
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2021, 11:50:07 AM »

This is total revisionist history as leading up to the election, anyone who said that Texas wouldn't be closer than it was in 2018 was gaslight repeatedly by many posters on this forum
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2021, 11:54:14 AM »

He performed in line with expectations if you were looking at the 2016 margin and the trends that were present, and also put into perspective that 2018 was a Dem-friendly midterm that likely wasn't going to be repeated in another presidential cycle. He however vastly overperformed the blue echo chamber consensus that was built around bad polls and blue wave hype. He even did a bit better than I expected him to, thanks to his impressive Rio Grande performance.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2021, 12:18:12 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2021, 12:21:15 PM by Calthrina950 »

Heavy suburban swings against him in places like the DFW area. Biden flipped Tarrant, cut the margins heavily in Denton and Collin, ran up the score in Dallas proper, Austin, Houston, etc. Hillary and Beto had already done some of the work and he just continued those trends.

These suburban and college-educated white Democratic trends existed all over the country and are a big part of why Arizona and Georgia flipped outright. The South was not immune to them, and we’re seeing the education gap being more and more important as the racial gap becomes a bit less important. So even though Trump got big swings with Hispanics in the RGV, he still came closer to losing Texas than any Republican in years.

That’s also because of the numbers game; the places trending D rapidly are also those that are growing most rapidly while the places going the other way are stagnant or shrinking. That’s how Georgia swung over 5 points and flipped. If current trends continue in Texas (which voted about as R as GA did in 2016), it will flip eventually.

The Texas metro areas are not diversifying as much as the Atlanta metro area. There is no remedy to defend the notion that Trump overperformed. I am from Texas. Not only was Beth O'Rourke popular in Dem areas, Cruz was incredibly unpopular even with Trump voters. If Cornyn was on the ballot, I guarantee you he would've won by more. Cruz is a stick in the mud for Dems, because he is a tea party extremist and for Trumper because he refused to endorse Trump early on. In addition, there was a bit of a pushback in the RGV relative to 2016 and Georgia didn't have those massive swing against Biden in any counties.

Cornyn of course was on the ballot last year, as you know, and he significantly outperformed Cruz, winning by over a million votes and nearly 10%. He also ran substantially ahead of Trump, who won by about 630,000 votes and 6%. And Abbott was reelected in 2018; he too significantly outperformed Cruz, winning by over a million votes and 13%.

This is total revisionist history as leading up to the election, anyone who said that Texas wouldn't be closer than it was in 2018 was gaslight repeatedly by many posters on this forum

I personally thought that Texas was competitive, and believed that it would be within a few points either way. I did not expect for Trump to make the gains in the Rio Grande Valley that he did, nor do I expect for him to squeeze out even more votes from Texas' vast rural and exurban areas. Biden barely improved over Clinton in Harris and Fort Bend Counties, and he didn't improve enough over her in Bexar, Dallas, or Travis Counties. He also did worse than O'Rourke in El Paso, Hays and Williamson Counties, and failed to flip back Jefferson County, which O'Rourke narrowly won.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2021, 12:33:48 PM »

Heavy suburban swings against him in places like the DFW area. Biden flipped Tarrant, cut the margins heavily in Denton and Collin, ran up the score in Dallas proper, Austin, Houston, etc. Hillary and Beto had already done some of the work and he just continued those trends.

These suburban and college-educated white Democratic trends existed all over the country and are a big part of why Arizona and Georgia flipped outright. The South was not immune to them, and we’re seeing the education gap being more and more important as the racial gap becomes a bit less important. So even though Trump got big swings with Hispanics in the RGV, he still came closer to losing Texas than any Republican in years.

That’s also because of the numbers game; the places trending D rapidly are also those that are growing most rapidly while the places going the other way are stagnant or shrinking. That’s how Georgia swung over 5 points and flipped. If current trends continue in Texas (which voted about as R as GA did in 2016), it will flip eventually.

The Texas metro areas are not diversifying as much as the Atlanta metro area. There is no remedy to defend the notion that Trump overperformed. I am from Texas. Not only was Beth O'Rourke popular in Dem areas, Cruz was incredibly unpopular even with Trump voters. If Cornyn was on the ballot, I guarantee you he would've won by more. Cruz is a stick in the mud for Dems, because he is a tea party extremist and for Trumper because he refused to endorse Trump early on. In addition, there was a bit of a pushback in the RGV relative to 2016 and Georgia didn't have those massive swing against Biden in any counties.

Cornyn of course was on the ballot last year, as you know, and he significantly outperformed Cruz, winning by over a million votes and nearly 10%. He also ran substantially ahead of Trump, who won by about 630,000 votes and 6%. And Abbott was reelected in 2018; he too significantly outperformed Cruz, winning by over a million votes and 13%.

This is total revisionist history as leading up to the election, anyone who said that Texas wouldn't be closer than it was in 2018 was gaslight repeatedly by many posters on this forum

I personally thought that Texas was competitive, and believed that it would be within a few points either way. I did not expect for Trump to make the gains in the Rio Grande Valley that he did, nor do I expect for him to squeeze out even more votes from Texas' vast rural and exurban areas. Biden barely improved over Clinton in Harris and Fort Bend Counties, and he didn't improve enough over her in Bexar, Dallas, or Travis Counties. He also did worse than O'Rourke in El Paso, Hays and Williamson Counties, and failed to flip back Jefferson County, which O'Rourke narrowly won.

Yes, you're correct. I also believe that Cornyn being on the ballot in 2018, he would've done much better than Cruz.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2021, 01:39:55 PM »

Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024
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Woody
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2021, 02:56:59 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2021, 03:32:14 PM »

Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2021, 03:38:30 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.
92 and 96 don't really count because of the third party vote
Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.
I know, I live in Tennessee ugh

That said, public polling was what the American public had, unlike the more accurate secret polls the campaigns had access to. Trump jibbersih doesn't count

To the average American who follows politics, Trump over performed in every swing state except Georgia
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2021, 03:45:47 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.
92 and 96 don't really count because of the third party vote
Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.
I know, I live in Tennessee ugh

That said, public polling was what the American public had, unlike the more accurate secret polls the campaigns had access to. Trump jibbersih doesn't count

To the average American who follows politics, Trump over performed in every swing state except Georgia

The premise is false, in my opinion. Texas never was a swing state. Georgia's margin was way more narrow than Texas was in 2016. I cringed whenever the news labeled Texas a swing state. The mathematical implication require Dallas County to be 70%+ for Biden, Biden carry Collin County by 10%+ which is just so....unrealistic at this point. The voters moving into suburban Atlanta are solidly Dem black voters, while those moving to suburban Texas are mostly non-black. The swing required to flip Texas this cycle was completely irrational.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2021, 04:04:11 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.
92 and 96 don't really count because of the third party vote
Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.
I know, I live in Tennessee ugh

That said, public polling was what the American public had, unlike the more accurate secret polls the campaigns had access to. Trump jibbersih doesn't count

To the average American who follows politics, Trump over performed in every swing state except Georgia

The premise is false, in my opinion. Texas never was a swing state. Georgia's margin was way more narrow than Texas was in 2016. I cringed whenever the news labeled Texas a swing state. The mathematical implication require Dallas County to be 70%+ for Biden, Biden carry Collin County by 10%+ which is just so....unrealistic at this point. The voters moving into suburban Atlanta are solidly Dem black voters, while those moving to suburban Texas are mostly non-black. The swing required to flip Texas this cycle was completely irrational.
No one expected Biden to carry Texas nor did anyone think the polls were going to be 100% accurate, just as no one expected Biden to win by 8 points nationally

That said, it was a swing state in the sense Biden could have carried it if he rolled a perfect six. The same couldn't be said for a state like South Carolina or Alaska.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2021, 04:06:30 PM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.
92 and 96 don't really count because of the third party vote
Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.
I know, I live in Tennessee ugh

That said, public polling was what the American public had, unlike the more accurate secret polls the campaigns had access to. Trump jibbersih doesn't count

To the average American who follows politics, Trump over performed in every swing state except Georgia

The premise is false, in my opinion. Texas never was a swing state. Georgia's margin was way more narrow than Texas was in 2016. I cringed whenever the news labeled Texas a swing state. The mathematical implication require Dallas County to be 70%+ for Biden, Biden carry Collin County by 10%+ which is just so....unrealistic at this point. The voters moving into suburban Atlanta are solidly Dem black voters, while those moving to suburban Texas are mostly non-black. The swing required to flip Texas this cycle was completely irrational.
No one expected Biden to carry Texas nor did anyone think the polls were going to be 100% accurate, just as no one expected Biden to win by 8 points nationally

That said, it was a swing state in the sense Biden could have carried it if he rolled a perfect six. The same couldn't be said for a state like South Carolina or Alaska.

Yes.
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Samof94
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« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2021, 05:54:43 AM »

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.


According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.
Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.
Those races had Perot as a candidate.
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