KS-Civiqs: Bollier +1 over Kobach, Marshall +1 over Bollier
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  KS-Civiqs: Bollier +1 over Kobach, Marshall +1 over Bollier
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Author Topic: KS-Civiqs: Bollier +1 over Kobach, Marshall +1 over Bollier  (Read 1162 times)
Panda Express
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« on: June 02, 2020, 07:41:12 AM »

link,

Bollier: 42%
Kobach: 41%

Bollier: 41%
Marshall: 42%

Kobach leads Marshall 35%-26% in the primary
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2020, 07:51:09 AM »

Bollier 41%
Hamilton 40%
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АndriуValeriovych
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2020, 08:38:59 AM »

Lean R -> Pure Tossup
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OneJ
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2020, 08:45:15 AM »

I'm going to contain my excitement for this race. It should be pointed out that Bollier is right around the low 40s level Biden is despite outperforming him by the margin. She does seem to have room to grow among Independents (13% undecided) against both Marshall and Kobach, fortunately. Obviously, she's going to want Kobach win the primary.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2020, 08:48:37 AM »

There are MAJOR red flags in the crosstabs for folks who believe this to be a toss-up. It's very similar to the SC poll they did. Regardless of who gets nominated as the Republican, this seat is not going to flip under most circumstances.
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Astatine
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2020, 08:51:47 AM »

What's up with those approval ratings?

Kelly +7
Roberts -20
Moran -8
Bollier +/- 0
Kobach -19
Marshall +2
Hamilton -8
Trump +4
Biden -30

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Gracile
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2020, 09:03:15 AM »

It's a poll for DailyKos, so functionally a D internal.
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Pollster
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2020, 09:13:55 AM »

People have got to stop polling ďsomeone elseĒ dear lord
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2020, 09:14:05 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2020, 09:22:40 AM by EastOfEden »

Wow, very close race. Would have expected Bollier +3 over Kobach, Marshall +5 over Bollier.

A pleasant surprise, really. Bollier's ads are weak. Very much in the vein of the "embarrassed R-state Democrat." She'd be a relic of a time past in that respect as a Senator, but I'm not complaining. We're in dire need of compromise, I think.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2020, 10:00:32 AM »

Stop. Between this and South Carolina. These states are slam dunks for the Rís.

Montana could go Blue (Maybe). But Kansas and South Carolina? Stop.
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WD
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2020, 10:39:35 AM »

Stop. Between this and South Carolina. These states are slam dunks for the Rís.

Montana could go Blue (Maybe). But Kansas and South Carolina? Stop.

No. Kansas is lean R with Marshall, tossup with Kobach. But your right about SC
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2020, 10:44:14 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2020, 10:52:05 AM by Cory Booker »

Stop. Between this and South Carolina. These states are slam dunks for the Rís.

Montana could go Blue (Maybe). But Kansas and South Carolina? Stop.

We are in a Pandemic with 25 percent unemployment,  this poll contradicts the other poll that had Marshall leading by 9 pts

So, much for Sen elect Marshall, that SnowLabrador  stated boldly. Marshall being up 1 point isnt Lean R, its tossup
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2020, 10:56:26 AM »

Called it! Smiley
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Boobs
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2020, 11:05:23 AM »


I think you donít really have grounds to perform autofellatio until after the votes are counted...
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S019
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2020, 11:25:33 AM »

Marshall was never going to make this race Safe R, and that NRSC internal with him under 50% had to be a warning sign. This race is quickly looking competitive even with Marshall, and now I'm inclined to argue that Kobach would be an underdog, if he won the primary. Again interested to see how the UnBeAtAbLe TiTaN RoGeR MaRsHaLl crowd reacts to this poll.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2020, 11:33:57 AM »


He still has James winning in MI, Collins winning in ME, Daines swimming in MT and Rs winning in KS.  He hasn't called anything yet, on his profile map

AZ, CO, ME and NC are gonna go D

He is gonna be very wrong on.Election Day
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2020, 11:38:06 AM »

It's a poll for DailyKos, so functionally a D internal.

It's only commissioned for DailyKos. Civiqs is a pretty good pollster.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2020, 11:41:35 AM »

So Kobach would only be doing 1% worse than how Lindsey Graham does, and Marshall will do better than Graham. If you tell me that on Election Night, I'll feel pretty good about Republicans winning this seat.

I will moreso acknowledge the primary poll though as we haven't had much to work off of there, and that is concerning for Marshall.
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S019
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2020, 11:50:08 AM »


He still has James winning in MI, Collins winning in ME, Daines swimming in MT and Rs winning in KS.  He hasn't called anything yet, on his profile map

AZ, CO, ME and NC are gonna go D

He is gonna be very wrong on.Election Day

I mean your map isn't perfect either, you have KY and SC in Safe D, which makes absolutely no sense, they are Safe R. Also MTTreasurer meant that this race would not magically become Safe R if Marshall was nominated and polls like this seem to confirm that.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2020, 11:51:27 AM »

James winning isn't happening
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S019
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2020, 12:21:18 PM »


Agreed, but SC and KY flipping isn't either. Anyways, MTTreasurer correctly predicted that even with Marshall this race would not be a slam dunk for Republicans.
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Person Man
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2020, 12:36:22 PM »

There is the potential for 2022 to be a blue wave if 2020 is a wash or minor setback.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2020, 02:10:01 PM »


I think you donít really have grounds to perform autofellatio until after the votes are counted...

By "called it" I meant that this race wasnít Safe R, which really isnít a "bold" prediction at all.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2020, 08:29:33 PM »

If accurate, this may just be a tossup regardless of Bollier's opponent. I would love for the GOP to think they have this seat in the bag with Marshall and end up having to spend a lot here to get him elected anyway.
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Modok
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« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2020, 09:37:20 PM »

The polling is very similar to the 2018 GOV race.
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