Morning Consult: Biden +12

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/01133130/2005131_crosstabs_POLICE_Adults_v1_LM.pdf

Sampling dates: May 31-Jun 1
Sample size: 1990 adults
MoE: 2%

Biden 46%
Trump 37%
Undecided 17%

Their last poll (May 18-24, MoE 1%) had a sample size of ~30,000 registered voters and showed Biden 46%, Trump 41%.

These 'more or less likely questions' can be of limited value if partisan responses distort those of undecided voters, but I've highlighted this question for whatever it's worth:

"Specifically, are you more or less likely to vote for President Trump or Joe Biden as a result of George Floyd’s death and subsequent protests?"

Biden: 40%
Trump: 29%
No impact: 19%
Don't know: 12%

[Gass3268]

Second poll to show Trump dropping because of protests.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any comparison between Nixon and Trump is misguided. Biden is more like Nixon, a well-known former VP who promises a return to normalcy, while Trump is the one in this case who is identified with chaos and disorder.

[psychprofessor]

oooof incumbent president sitting at 39% 5 months away from an election...this is ghwb territory

[wbrocks67]

Wow, this is pretty major. Morning Consult had this race static for months, basically, at like Biden +4/5.

Also: RCP won't put this in their average either.

[ProudModerate2]

And I'm sure this is before images of Biden seen on the streets talking to people.
I may go higher in Biden's favor.
(Is this an ongoing poll? And we are just seeing the early results right now, with more updates to come as more people are polled?)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

oooof incumbent president sitting at 39% 5 months away from an election...this is ghwb territory

GHWB had the comfort of fighting off a volatile third party challenge and hoping that vote would collapse in his favour by election day. Not so here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I misposted - the figures for the VI polling were 46%, 37%, not 48%, 39%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And I'm sure this is before images of Biden seen on the streets talking to people.
I may go higher in Biden's favor.
(Is this an ongoing poll? And we are just seeing the early results right now, with more updates to come as more people are polled?)

I don't know what would give you that impression, but 538 have removed it from their tracker and it now leads to a 404 page.

[ElectionsGuy]

The link doesn't work, but regardless the reason it's so different is because they went from 30K registered voters to 2K adults. 17% undecided. Not at all useful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The link still works for me.

FWIW, MC does so many polls, with some being adults and some being RV, that I don't think it's very useful to try to track changes between them.

[Bidenworth2020]

The link doesn't work, but regardless the reason it's so different is because they went from 30K registered voters to 2K adults. 17% undecided. Not at all useful.

A 2k sample is perfectly fine when conducting a national. Biden +9 is on the higher end of average, but is still an entirely reasonable result.

[ElectionsGuy]

The link doesn't work, but regardless the reason it's so different is because they went from 30K registered voters to 2K adults. 17% undecided. Not at all useful.

A 2k sample is perfectly fine when conducting a national. Biden +9 is on the higher end of average, but is still an entirely reasonable result.

The 2k sample size isn't a problem but when you don't even bother to see if the person is registered (nonetheless likely at all to vote) then it's a entirely worthless result, regardless if it 'fits' with the other polls.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Yeah, I don’t think the President should be getting any polling bumps while the country is imploding on his watch.

[psychprofessor]

oooof incumbent president sitting at 39% 5 months away from an election...this is ghwb territory

GHWB had the comfort of fighting off a volatile third party challenge and hoping that vote would collapse in his favour by election day. Not so here.

I just meant incumbent candidate under 40. This is even worse for Trump in a two way race.
Going back to the last incumbent running, Obama 2012, I don't think I ever recalled any poll against Romney with Obama sub 40%. Just awful numbers for an incumbent running for re-election 5 months out.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Looks like Trump becoming George Wallace is not working.

[Holmes]

SN2903’s reaction to this poll:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like Trump becoming George Wallace is not working.

I'd be happy to see Trump get the same PV percentage that Wallace got in '68.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

An update to this - numbers for RVs have been released here and they're worse for Trump:
https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/01181629/2005131_crosstabs_POLICE_RVs_FINAL_LM-1.pdf

1624 RVs
MoE 2%
May 31-June 1

Biden 51%
Trump 39%
Don't know 10%

"Specifically, are you more or less likely to vote for President Trump or Joe Biden as a result of George Floyd’s death and subsequent protests?"

Biden 45%
Trump 31%
No impact 18%
Don't know 7%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, I don’t think the President should be getting any polling bumps while the country is imploding on his watch.

Exactly, it was never a given that Democrats would automatically be linked to the protests, and that doesn't seem like the case right now. I just want one Minnesota poll before we finally get confirmation of whether this is true or not, though I expect it to be.

[The Ex-Factor]

Lol at only 18% saying 'no impact'. 80% of y'all at minimum were locked into either Biden or Trump already.

[libertpaulian]

Yet another poll showing Trump freefalling:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1267595407380500480

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Maybe not a great poll quality-wise, but another data point against the "Trump=Nixon" narrative nonetheless.

[The Mikado]

Maybe not a great poll quality-wise, but another data point against the "Trump=Nixon" narrative nonetheless.

I love how now even Trump's own people are saying Trump is Nixon.

There was a time not that long ago (that I remember!) when no politician would ever dare compare himself to Richard Nixon and that was seen as basically the ultimate insult.

[wbrocks67]

The link doesn't work, but regardless the reason it's so different is because they went from 30K registered voters to 2K adults. 17% undecided. Not at all useful.

A 2k sample is perfectly fine when conducting a national. Biden +9 is on the higher end of average, but is still an entirely reasonable result.

The 2k sample size isn't a problem but when you don't even bother to see if the person is registered (nonetheless likely at all to vote) then it's a entirely worthless result, regardless if it 'fits' with the other polls.

you were saying...