Earliest Presidential Election a Republican could have won without Vermont?
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Author Topic: Earliest Presidential Election a Republican could have won without Vermont?  (Read 872 times)
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
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« on: September 25, 2020, 06:36:20 PM »
What is the earliest date a Republican could have plausibly won a Presidential election while losing Vermont? In reality, of course, this didn't happen until George W. Bush's win in 2000 but could this have occurred earlier?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2020, 07:08:54 PM »
1980.
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buritobr
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2020, 07:25:25 PM »
Reagan's margin in Vermont was 6. His national margin was 9. The polls were showing a 3p national margin few days before November 4th 1980. If there was no surge for Reagan in the eve, Carter could have won Vermont and even though, Reagan would have won the NPV and the EC.
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E-Dawg
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 08:04:09 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2020, 08:13:49 PM by Guy »
I would actually argue that Goldwater could have in 1964 if he had a strong enough colitation to win the election. Vermont was one of his weakest states.  A winning colatition for Goldwater would have dependent on sweeping the south (minus Texas) and the West, along with being competitive in the midwest. Northeast including Vermont still would have voted for Johnson in a close Goldwater victory, Goldwater was a horrible fit for the state.
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2020, 08:43:34 PM »
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2020, 10:14:00 PM »
When the Religious Right becomes a big force. The earliest I'd say would be a particularly close Reagan '76 election against a Democrat who really resonates with Vermont.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2020, 07:42:54 PM »
1980 probably

1988 for sure
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2020, 07:43:43 PM »
Technically 1964 since it was left of the nation
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Chips
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2020, 09:12:33 AM »
1964 election if VT was tied:



Barry Goldwater: 427 electoral votes
President Johnson: 108 electoral votes
Undecided: 3 electoral votes
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