2024 IN-SEN: Former Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett vs Senator Mike Braun

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Who would win?

Given how much Joe Hogsett won by in 2019 (clearing 70% in a city-county where Clinton only got 58% in 2016 and where Donnelly only got 64% in 2018), he would be a formidable candidate. How would he do against Mike Braun?

[NewYorkExpress]

Braun probably still wins, but it would be close. I think Pence (or whoever the Republican nominee is)'s coattails let Braun hold on.

Mike Braun (R) 49.9%
Joe Hogsett (D) 49.2%

[President Biden Democrat]

Senator Braun will still win. Braun was able to beat an incumbent in a Democratic wave year in 2018. Indiana is a safe Republican state in most elections. This seat could narrow considerably but it would definitely stil go to Braun.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If everything had gone right, the Democrats could have won in IN 2018, but that time has passed. It is titanium R at the presidential and senatorial level and is not being won back in this political generation.

Hogsett would be better off going for the Governor's mansion, where he might stand a chance.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Braun will defeat any Democratic opponent by >10%. The Indiana Democratic party is decimated, and getting 70% in a low-turnout mayoral election in Marion County is not indicative of ability to win statewide. Donnelly made mistakes, but Braun's victory in a Democratic wave year suggests it will be a long time to come before Democrats are competitive statewide again.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Braun will defeat any Democratic opponent by >10%. The Indiana Democratic party is decimated, and getting 70% in a low-turnout mayoral election in Marion County is not indicative of ability to win statewide. Donnelly made mistakes, but Braun's victory in a Democratic wave year suggests it will be a long time to come before Democrats are competitive statewide again.

Even at the gubernatorial level?

[President Biden Democrat]

Braun will defeat any Democratic opponent by >10%. The Indiana Democratic party is decimated, and getting 70% in a low-turnout mayoral election in Marion County is not indicative of ability to win statewide. Donnelly made mistakes, but Braun's victory in a Democratic wave year suggests it will be a long time to come before Democrats are competitive statewide again.

Even at the gubernatorial level?

Democrats probably could win Indiana at the gubernatorial level but not in senate or presidential elections.

[libertpaulian]

Braun would crush him, especially given Indy has had consecutive years of record homicides on Hogsett's watch.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Braun will defeat any Democratic opponent by >10%. The Indiana Democratic party is decimated, and getting 70% in a low-turnout mayoral election in Marion County is not indicative of ability to win statewide. Donnelly made mistakes, but Braun's victory in a Democratic wave year suggests it will be a long time to come before Democrats are competitive statewide again.

Even at the gubernatorial level?

Especially at the gubernatorial level. At present there is no statewide Democratic bench; the only plausible candidate is Buttigieg, and he has wisely chosen to focus his efforts on gaining a beachhead in national politics. Barring a Kansas-style collapse of the state Republican party, I don't see voters losing their appetite for GOP politics here in the near future. I'd love to be wrong, of course.

[libertpaulian]

Braun will defeat any Democratic opponent by >10%. The Indiana Democratic party is decimated, and getting 70% in a low-turnout mayoral election in Marion County is not indicative of ability to win statewide. Donnelly made mistakes, but Braun's victory in a Democratic wave year suggests it will be a long time to come before Democrats are competitive statewide again.

Even at the gubernatorial level?

Especially at the gubernatorial level. At present there is no statewide Democratic bench; the only plausible candidate is Buttigieg, and he has wisely chosen to focus his efforts on gaining a beachhead in national politics. Barring a Kansas-style collapse of the state Republican party, I don't see voters losing their appetite for GOP politics here in the near future. I'd love to be wrong, of course.

Tallian had better work her ass off to win the AG's race.  If she wins, and plays her cards right, she could be a credible gubernatorial candidate.

[MATTROSE94]

Mike Braun easily wins with something like a 55-45 margin. The only way that this race could be competitive is if Eddie Gallagher (the Navy SEAL Special Warfare Operator who came to national attention after he was charged with war crimes and pardoned by President Trump) who is an Indiana resident somehow primaries Mike Braun. Even then, Joe Hogsett would still lose.