Why did California go GOP in 76 and 88?

[Gustaf]

California was a swing state, with something of a GOP lean for a long time. It's closeness in 1976 is probably over-stated, because of Reagan supporters staying home.

And to Jfern, there is an obvious such effect. Look at Masssachusetts in 1980 and Arizona in 2000. It didn't happen with Vermont, because a) Dean didn't have that kind of support there I think, b) Kerry didn't "beat" Dean, the man knocked himself out of the race and c) Deaniacs were too concerned about Bush, by and large.

[Gustaf]

How will CA tred in he future? Will it keep going left?

I think so...
According to Census Bureau projections, California may not win a single seat in 2010 reaportionement.
With an ever growing immigration, that means that middle class families are continuing to escape the state.

Then : Less and less white middle class families + growing number of Asian Americans (less christian and more secular than other ethnic groups) = Solid blue state.

I wonder what will be the effect of a crash of the housing bubble. Will middle class families come back to California, and then make it a competitive state again ?

Asian Americans are very meritocratic though. And they also get screwed by affirmative action. I don't think they're given as a Democratic voter group.