Why was Maryland closer than usual in 2004?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:03:13 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Why was Maryland closer than usual in 2004?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Why was Maryland closer than usual in 2004?  (Read 1357 times)
iceman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 862
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 31, 2020, 04:48:53 PM »

Kerry only won by 13 points.
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,394


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2020, 03:57:10 PM »

A few blue states were closer that year.  Kerry won California by under 10 points.  I'm not entirely sure why.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,267
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2020, 04:38:20 PM »

A few blue states were closer that year.  Kerry won California by under 10 points.  I'm not entirely sure why.

California was still trending D. Remember that Bush won the popular vote and was strong with Hispanics as well.
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,394


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2020, 04:52:14 PM »

A few blue states were closer that year.  Kerry won California by under 10 points.  I'm not entirely sure why.

California was still trending D. Remember that Bush won the popular vote and was strong with Hispanics as well.

If it trended D, it didn't do so in a significant way.  Pretty sure Gore won it by 13 in 2000, and then won it by 10 in 2004 (while there was a 2.5 shift to the Republicans in the NPV).
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,469
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2020, 05:13:19 PM »

A better question is why Clinton won it by only 16 during his reelection in 1996.  Maryland was the only state to swing towards Gore.  From Clinton to Kerry, it still trended left.

Also, let's not forget that Bush carried Maryland in 1988. 
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,583
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2020, 05:16:09 PM »

My guess would be the lingering effects of both 9/11 and the Beltway sniper shootings bringing some moderates into the Bush camp in a place where there are a lot of affluent DC commuters.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,469
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2020, 05:22:47 PM »

As for blue states that swung heavily towards Bush, there's New York and New Jersey, where 9/11 was especially big.  There's also Hawaii and Rhode Island, which appear to be particularly pro-incumbent, for some reason.
Logged
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,053
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2020, 05:36:51 PM »

My guess would be the lingering effects of both 9/11 and the Beltway sniper shootings bringing some moderates into the Bush camp in a place where there are a lot of affluent DC commuters.

Actually, no. The suburbs actually swung toward Kerry, but that appears to have been more than canceled out by Baltimore and the rural areas swinging toward Bush. I assume the Baltimore swing is a reflection of Kerry doing weaker than Gore with blacks.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2020, 05:58:04 PM »

Bush wasted so many popular votes by improving on his PV numbers in safe D states in the Northeast. John Kerry would have won the EC in a tied national race, thanks to his Ohio and the Rust Belt strategy.
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2020, 05:27:31 PM »

California had a GOP Governor but he was an A List celebrity and wasn’t especially conservative.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 13 queries.