YouGov: Biden +8

[Roblox]

Stop arguing with SN people. He's nothing more than a racist Trump hack drone. You cannot reason or debate with him, you can only ignore him until he goes mad and leaves over a lack of attention.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

SN doesn't believe that Ds won landslides in 92-96 and 2008-12 and won WI, OH and PA in 1976, he thinks that Ds will forever lose the rust belt eventhough 1/3rd of minorities live in poverty and 66 percent of Latinos and African Americans are in prisons exacerbating the wealth gap. Just like Rs dont believe that Susan Collins, just because she is some sort of moderate will lose to Betsy Sweet and she is down in ME 2 and 9 points in ME AL

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think Rs understand urban poverty, not living in a middle class home, that's why the country is moving leftward, due to another Recession

[ElectionsGuy]

This turned into a sh**tshow real quick.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This turned into a sh**tshow real quick.

That usually happens when the secret ingredient is added.

[ON Progressive]

I’m going to lock this thread while I do some cleaning up on my lunch break. This has gotten extremely derailed.

EDIT: Back to being unlocked, please don't derail this thread again.

[SN2903]

I’m going to lock this thread while I do some cleaning up on my lunch break. This has gotten extremely derailed.

EDIT: Back to being unlocked, please don't derail this thread again.

I want to apologize TO Penn Quaker Girl and anyone else I may have offended. The post about immigrants I meant to put illegal immigrants but forgot to put illegal before immigrants. I do not believe the cops are innocent and that is not my opinion. I believe they are guilty of a crime I just do not know the exact crime and I do not think all of the facts have been presented fairly. All I was questioning was the fact that this could being used to fuel division by the media and all of the facts are not being presented. I do not think that these protests are helping to unite the country and I think the governors and mayors in many cases have been too slow to act. I believe that the protests have been highjacked by ANTIFA and radical groups and their message has been lost. I am also concerned about other countries trying to take advantage of this division within our country.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Apology accepted, SN!

[SN2903]

Apology accepted, SN!

[Pollster]

This might be one of the worst polls for Donald Trump I've seen since he became a political figure.

He is not only losing the election and trending downward. This poll shows his rhetoric failing to take hold with anything close to a winning number of Americans (do remember that the winning number for Republicans is much lower than the winning number for Democrats). Virtually everything he says is being rejected out of hand.

A majority says he is racist.

A majority says he should stop posting on twitter.

He is underwater or barely above water on every major issue.

His strong approval overall is barely 1 in 4 people.

I try to avoid big, sweeping pronouncements on this board as I do in my work, so the furthest I'll go here is that I have never seen an incumbent President running for reelection from such a position of weakness in my lifetime.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

I’m going to lock this thread while I do some cleaning up on my lunch break. This has gotten extremely derailed.

EDIT: Back to being unlocked, please don't derail this thread again.

I want to apologize TO Penn Quaker Girl and anyone else I may have offended. The post about immigrants I meant to put illegal immigrants but forgot to put illegal before immigrants. I do not believe the cops are innocent and that is not my opinion. I believe they are guilty of a crime I just do not know the exact crime and I do not think all of the facts have been presented fairly. All I was questioning was the fact that this could being used to fuel division by the media and all of the facts are not being presented. I do not think that these protests are helping to unite the country and I think the governors and mayors in many cases have been too slow to act. I believe that the protests have been highjacked by ANTIFA and radical groups and their message has been lost. I am also concerned about other countries trying to take advantage of this division within our country.

As I sit here in Indianapolis, facing a second straight 8 pm curfew, knowing people at the protests, knowing from friends who have witnessed the police provocation that is going on, seeing all the information being passed directly from person to person... If you think the mainstream media is creating this, you really have no idea what is going on.

The media is reacting to the situation, not creating it. The media does what it always does: finds the most sensationalist angle to get ad views. Don't mistake that for creating division for division's sake.

The protests have not been hijacked by "Antifa." If anything, they have been hijacked by the far right, who have also been provoking violence and heralding the "boogaloo."

[SN2903]

This might be one of the worst polls for Donald Trump I've seen since he became a political figure.

He is not only losing the election and trending downward. This poll shows his rhetoric failing to take hold with anything close to a winning number of Americans (do remember that the winning number for Republicans is much lower than the winning number for Democrats). Virtually everything he says is being rejected out of hand.

A majority says he is racist.

A majority says he should stop posting on twitter.

He is underwater or barely above water on every major issue.

His strong approval overall is barely 1 in 4 people.

I try to avoid big, sweeping pronouncements on this board as I do in my work, so the furthest I'll go here is that I have never seen an incumbent President running for reelection from such a position of weakness in my lifetime.

Bush in '92 and Carter in '80 at this point had 3-4% lower average approval ratings. Trump's approval is holding steady in the mid 40s. There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

[psychprofessor]

This might be one of the worst polls for Donald Trump I've seen since he became a political figure.

He is not only losing the election and trending downward. This poll shows his rhetoric failing to take hold with anything close to a winning number of Americans (do remember that the winning number for Republicans is much lower than the winning number for Democrats). Virtually everything he says is being rejected out of hand.

A majority says he is racist.

A majority says he should stop posting on twitter.

He is underwater or barely above water on every major issue.

His strong approval overall is barely 1 in 4 people.

I try to avoid big, sweeping pronouncements on this board as I do in my work, so the furthest I'll go here is that I have never seen an incumbent President running for reelection from such a position of weakness in my lifetime.

Bush in '92 and Carter in '80 at this point had 3-4% lower average approval ratings. Trump's approval is holding steady in the mid 40s. There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Bush in 92 at least held a lead against Clinton and Perot until mid-May. It was actually around the Rodney King riots that Perot leap-frogged and then Clinton took the commanding lead after the DNC. I don't think Trump has led Biden at any point in any polling - and in a two way race with head to heads in some polls in the 30's...disaster

[SN2903]

This might be one of the worst polls for Donald Trump I've seen since he became a political figure.

He is not only losing the election and trending downward. This poll shows his rhetoric failing to take hold with anything close to a winning number of Americans (do remember that the winning number for Republicans is much lower than the winning number for Democrats). Virtually everything he says is being rejected out of hand.

A majority says he is racist.

A majority says he should stop posting on twitter.

He is underwater or barely above water on every major issue.

His strong approval overall is barely 1 in 4 people.

I try to avoid big, sweeping pronouncements on this board as I do in my work, so the furthest I'll go here is that I have never seen an incumbent President running for reelection from such a position of weakness in my lifetime.

Bush in '92 and Carter in '80 at this point had 3-4% lower average approval ratings. Trump's approval is holding steady in the mid 40s. There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Bush in 92 at least held a lead against Clinton and Perot until mid-May. It was actually around the Rodney King riots that Perot leap-frogged and then Clinton took the commanding lead after the DNC. I don't think Trump has led Biden at any point in any polling - and in a two way race with head to heads in some polls in the 30's...disaster

The only time Trump led Clinton was at the RNC in July of 2016. He didn't lead at any other point. Trump doesn't have to be leading he just has to narrow it and win in the EC.

[psychprofessor]

This might be one of the worst polls for Donald Trump I've seen since he became a political figure.

He is not only losing the election and trending downward. This poll shows his rhetoric failing to take hold with anything close to a winning number of Americans (do remember that the winning number for Republicans is much lower than the winning number for Democrats). Virtually everything he says is being rejected out of hand.

A majority says he is racist.

A majority says he should stop posting on twitter.

He is underwater or barely above water on every major issue.

His strong approval overall is barely 1 in 4 people.

I try to avoid big, sweeping pronouncements on this board as I do in my work, so the furthest I'll go here is that I have never seen an incumbent President running for reelection from such a position of weakness in my lifetime.

Bush in '92 and Carter in '80 at this point had 3-4% lower average approval ratings. Trump's approval is holding steady in the mid 40s. There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Bush in 92 at least held a lead against Clinton and Perot until mid-May. It was actually around the Rodney King riots that Perot leap-frogged and then Clinton took the commanding lead after the DNC. I don't think Trump has led Biden at any point in any polling - and in a two way race with head to heads in some polls in the 30's...disaster

The only time Trump led Clinton was at the RNC in July of 2016. He didn't lead at any other point. Trump doesn't have to be leading he just has to narrow it and win in the EC.

Trump is now the incumbent...this isn't 2016. This isn't Trump the unknown versus Clinton the known. If you're an incumbent running for re-election polls in a two way race under 40 are, let's say, not good.

[SN2903]

This might be one of the worst polls for Donald Trump I've seen since he became a political figure.

He is not only losing the election and trending downward. This poll shows his rhetoric failing to take hold with anything close to a winning number of Americans (do remember that the winning number for Republicans is much lower than the winning number for Democrats). Virtually everything he says is being rejected out of hand.

A majority says he is racist.

A majority says he should stop posting on twitter.

He is underwater or barely above water on every major issue.

His strong approval overall is barely 1 in 4 people.

I try to avoid big, sweeping pronouncements on this board as I do in my work, so the furthest I'll go here is that I have never seen an incumbent President running for reelection from such a position of weakness in my lifetime.

Bush in '92 and Carter in '80 at this point had 3-4% lower average approval ratings. Trump's approval is holding steady in the mid 40s. There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Bush in 92 at least held a lead against Clinton and Perot until mid-May. It was actually around the Rodney King riots that Perot leap-frogged and then Clinton took the commanding lead after the DNC. I don't think Trump has led Biden at any point in any polling - and in a two way race with head to heads in some polls in the 30's...disaster

The only time Trump led Clinton was at the RNC in July of 2016. He didn't lead at any other point. Trump doesn't have to be leading he just has to narrow it and win in the EC.

Trump is now the incumbent...this isn't 2016. This isn't Trump the unknown versus Clinton the known. If you're an incumbent running for re-election polls in a two way race under 40 are, let's say, not good.

It's not good but he has a lot of time and a 5-6 point lead is not a disaster. 8-10 would be. Trump can easily narrow this thing to within the 0 to 4 range. Easily. Biden will make mistakes the question is how many and how bad. He hasn't had a really bad week in a while. Also the test will be when he does made mistakes he will be compound them like Hillary did in 2016: kept downplaying the emails and looked evasive or will he stamp them out like Obama and Bill Clinton did. Biden has no history of running great campaigns ever and at best he is a mediocre candidate bordering on bad. Trump has proven he is a great campaigner already. Biden has never proved he can run a good campaign ever. Primaries don't count. It's whoever wins the GE. No one remembers Kerry or Romney.

[Pollster]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This is certainly wave insurance and Ds shouldnt get complacent,  but Ds need wave insurance if its VBM, and WI or PA can be very tight but if Ds pick off FL, AZ or OH, we wont have to wait for a recount in either WI or PA to wait for Biden to be Prez

[SN2903]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

Good point and I think he can get a good number of them back IF the economy is on the up swing and if he can show a little bit more discipline with the tweeting. Trump has gotta step up his game the next few months. There is no doubt at that. I def think he should give an oval office address addressing the racial component of what happened and also condemning the rioters and working to restore order. He's gotta  be less antagonistic than he has been lately. Easier said than he can done but he has shown he can do it. In the last month of the 2016 race he was very disciplined. He needs to focus on staying on message and hammering Biden with negative advertising.

[Ferguson97]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

Good point and I think he can get a good number of them back IF the economy is on the up swing and if he can show a little bit more discipline with the tweeting.

It's more likely we return to February's economy than this happens

[SN2903]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

Good point and I think he can get a good number of them back IF the economy is on the up swing and if he can show a little bit more discipline with the tweeting.

It's more likely we return to February's economy than this happens

He has to limit the bad tweets.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

I work for a very conservative insurance company in a very conservative state. Our corporate leadership has made it very clear that it has to forge its own path forward because the current administration has lost the plot. Business leaders are acting like the responsible adults they are, while POTUS throws temper tantrums. I have never seen such a disconnect between the business community and the Republican Party.

I don't see how any Republican incumbent can win if this environment doesn't change by November.  If he does win, he might be the first Republican in a very long time to win without a majority of college-educated white men (he won 53% in 2016).

[Ferguson97]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

I work for a very conservative insurance company in a very conservative state. Our corporate leadership has made it very clear that it has to forge its own path forward because the current administration has lost the plot. Business leaders are acting like the responsible adults they are, while POTUS throws temper tantrums. I have never seen such a disconnect between the business community and the Republican Party.

I don't see how any Republican incumbent can win if this environment doesn't change by November.  If he does win, he might be the first Republican in a very long time to win without a majority of college-educated white men (he won 53% in 2016).

If Trump even narrowly loses college-educated white men (49-51), I don't think he could possibly win. The math isn't there.

[Crumpets]

Wow, Biden surging! They'll be crying themselves to sleep at the RealClearPolitics HQ tonight!

For the record, RCP has yet to add this poll and still has the last YouGov poll in the average.

[South Dakota Democrat]

There is a disconnect between his approval and these head to head polls which means either #1 the race is tighter because many of these "undecided" are actually with Trump or #2 There are people who approve of him but are voting for Biden. I side with #1 because it doesn't make sense for someone to approve of him and be voting for Biden.

Breaking my policy of not engaging with you because you actually make a decent point here.

Focus group data suggests these people are suburban men, mostly white and with college degrees (often postgrad degrees), who are disproportionately likely to be financially invested. Many initially credited Trump with not ruining an already good economy for them and are favorable to the tax cuts he signed. With the economy currently in shambles, they have moved away from him. The reality of political chaos equaling financial chaos has broken through to them. Many of their wives, voting-aged children, and increasingly their parents are supporting Democrats. Trump campaign will need to do a lot of work to avoid bleeding here.

Good point and I think he can get a good number of them back IF the economy is on the up swing and if he can show a little bit more discipline with the tweeting. Trump has gotta step up his game the next few months. There is no doubt at that. I def think he should give an oval office address addressing the racial component of what happened and also condemning the rioters and working to restore order. He's gotta  be less antagonistic than he has been lately. Easier said than he can done but he has shown he can do it. In the last month of the 2016 race he was very disciplined. He needs to focus on staying on message and hammering Biden with negative advertising.

I stopped reading after you said "if he show a little bit more discipline with the tweeting."