Rate IL-14

[Woody]

?

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt D.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Torn between Lean/Likely D. Oberweis is a weak candidate.

[andjey]

Likely D

[Roll Roons]

Lean D. Underwood is probably a bit to the left of the district, but we had to go and nominate the perennial loser.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The party is stupid for nominating Oberweis. Likely D. Better run someone competent next time before Underwood gets entrenched (depending on how redistributing goes).

[Gracile]

Lean D. Underwood will not win by a big margin, of course, but pulling Oberweis as her opponent basically assured her victory.

[Joseph Cao]

[R–IL hattrick unfortunately foiled by Gracile]

Lean D, honestly could be Likely by fall. This could've been a top pickup opportunity with Underwood's liberal voting record, and of all the candidates to choose from we just had to pick the one person shameless enough to have run to succeed and been endorsed by Dennis Hastert.

Anyway, I'd like to hope the 2022 candidate is slightly less of a perennial loser, but Madigan has presumably been buffing up his carving knives in preparation for unleashing some cartographical monstrosity of a gerrymander that draws Underwood into a Hillary+8 seat or something and candidate quality might no longer matter by then.

[OKbooma]

Lean D. It's possible, but I think the only house seat the gop will pick up is OK-5.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Tossup, but probably favoring Underwood, I do think this seat will be quite close, but on the other hand, it was only Trump+4, and if Biden's large national leads continue, Chicago suburbs are certainly a place that I can see Trump fall, probably dragging down Oberweis with him.

[Suburbia]

Lean D.

Underwood will win reelection.

2022 can be a better year for IL GOP here.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Likely D

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Lean D, closer to Likely than Toss-Up. Underwood is a good candidate, and wouldn’t be easy to bet (regardless of how “left” she is), but Oberweis wasn’t the wisest choice for Republicans.

[Raccoon]

Likely D

Yea, she will win like like 53 to 47. Not exactly a landslide but Biden could actually barely win her district.

On a whole it is still a Republican district though combining up and down ballot voting patterns that is trending Democratic. Rauner won it by eight, Raoul won it by 7. Only Democrats who won it in 2018 were White (obviously), Mendoza (and that is just by guessing it was probably within 2%) and of course Underwood.

So right now I predict:

Biden 49.5
Trump 49.0
Other 1.5

Underwood 53.2
Oberweis 46.8

Under a Biden midterm I am very much looking forward to see how places like the Chicago suburbs vote in 2022 and we will get a preview on how genuine suburban trends were post Trump in 2021 in places like suburban Richmond, VA and Virginia Beach. Nova to a lesser extent.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

[R–IL hattrick unfortunately foiled by Gracile]

Lean D, honestly could be Likely by fall. This could've been a top pickup opportunity with Underwood's liberal voting record, and of all the candidates to choose from we just had to pick the one person shameless enough to have run to succeed and been endorsed by Dennis Hastert.

Anyway, I'd like to hope the 2022 candidate is slightly less of a perennial loser, but Madigan has presumably been buffing up his carving knives in preparation for unleashing some cartographical monstrosity of a gerrymander that draws Underwood into a Hillary+8 seat or something and candidate quality might no longer matter by then.

It really doesn’t take a nasty draw in Chicagoland to shore up Underwood and clean up Casten’s seat., even accounting for Illinois losing two seats

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Lean D. Could have been a Tossup if not for Jim Oberweis of all people getting the GOP nom.

[lfromnj]

[R–IL hattrick unfortunately foiled by Gracile]

Lean D, honestly could be Likely by fall. This could've been a top pickup opportunity with Underwood's liberal voting record, and of all the candidates to choose from we just had to pick the one person shameless enough to have run to succeed and been endorsed by Dennis Hastert.

Anyway, I'd like to hope the 2022 candidate is slightly less of a perennial loser, but Madigan has presumably been buffing up his carving knives in preparation for unleashing some cartographical monstrosity of a gerrymander that draws Underwood into a Hillary+8 seat or something and candidate quality might no longer matter by then.

It really doesn’t take a nasty draw in Chicagoland to shore up Underwood and clean up Casten’s seat., even accounting for Illinois losing two seats

16 seats is quite tough,my guess is at that point they just cut Newman.

[Joseph Cao]

[R–IL hattrick unfortunately foiled by Gracile]

Lean D, honestly could be Likely by fall. This could've been a top pickup opportunity with Underwood's liberal voting record, and of all the candidates to choose from we just had to pick the one person shameless enough to have run to succeed and been endorsed by Dennis Hastert.

Anyway, I'd like to hope the 2022 candidate is slightly less of a perennial loser, but Madigan has presumably been buffing up his carving knives in preparation for unleashing some cartographical monstrosity of a gerrymander that draws Underwood into a Hillary+8 seat or something and candidate quality might no longer matter by then.

It really doesn’t take a nasty draw in Chicagoland to shore up Underwood and clean up Casten’s seat., even accounting for Illinois losing two seats

Quite true, though my guess at the most likely outcome is that Madigan prioritizes shoring up Bustos over the two freshmen (freshman and freshwoman?) either through drawing IL-17 further into Chicagoland or by linking the Quad cities to Democratic pockets in central Illinois, and from eyeballing the Illinois redistricting thread both options would almost certainly cause the act of fortifying Underwood's seat to result in an uglier district; that's an eventuality and he's shown no hesitation in going down that road if he needs to. But I'm happy to defer to those with more redistricting experience on this.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

We need a redistricting commission in every state. Hopefully Congress + Biden act on this

[lfromnj]

We need a redistricting commission in every state. Hopefully Congress + Biden act on this

Unconstitutional to mandate one, you can withhold Federal funds like HR1 but certain states would just wait it out till they can repeal that.

[Ye We Can]

I don't think this is the year Jim Oberweis finally breaks through.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

We need a redistricting commission in every state. Hopefully Congress + Biden act on this

Unconstitutional to mandate one, you can withhold Federal funds like HR1 but certain states would just wait it out till they can repeal that.

So you mean like what The feds did with Marijuana drinking age etc?

[lfromnj]

We need a redistricting commission in every state. Hopefully Congress + Biden act on this

Unconstitutional to mandate one, you can withhold Federal funds like HR1 but certain states would just wait it out till they can repeal that.

So you mean like what The feds did with Marijuana drinking age etc?

Yeah basically the drinking age stuff

[Libertas Vel Mors]

We need a redistricting commission in every state. Hopefully Congress + Biden act on this

Unconstitutional to mandate one, you can withhold Federal funds like HR1 but certain states would just wait it out till they can repeal that.

So you mean like what The feds did with Marijuana drinking age etc?

Yeah basically the drinking age stuff

Which was also wrong, because you're taking the state's money either way.

[Badger]

We need a redistricting commission in every state. Hopefully Congress + Biden act on this

Unconstitutional to mandate one, you can withhold Federal funds like HR1 but certain states would just wait it out till they can repeal that.

So you mean like what The feds did with Marijuana drinking age etc?

Yeah basically the drinking age stuff

I was too lazy to read the entire opinion, but I never quite understood how the decision upholding Obamacare nevertheless distinguished these prior Holdings like the drinking age, Etc from tying Medicaid funding to increased coverage.

R
Anyway, gerrymandering is such a pernicious and growing poison to American democracy that I would totally support such a move to cut funding 2 States who don't engage in a genuinely independent redistricting Commission. Frankly, after this coming election would be the perfect time to do so. It would probably require a republican Trifecta to repeal it.

In from a purely partisan standpoint, I would gladly endure the loss of one or two redistricting seats in Illinois and maybe one in Maryland in order to fairly redraw the Congressional maps in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Michigan, etc.