ABC/Washington Post: Biden +10

[wbrocks67]

It'll be 11pm on election night, the west coast polls will just have closed putting Biden over 270 votes, and morons like David Wasserman will still be tweeting "jUsT wAiT fOr TrUmP tO gO nUcLeAr On BiDeN". Trump has been viciously attacking Biden for months. His son accused him of being a pedophile last week. No one cares. Trump has destroyed the country.

I think Dave Wasserman tries to caveat Democrats' chances because he wants to be seen as 'nonpartisan'. The numbers favor Democrats right now, so he's trying to throw out something contrarian in order to not seem biased. Maybe? I agree he can be really frustrating, as can most of those eggheads (Amy Walter, Nate Cohn, etc.).

I just wish Cohn would stop citing those NYT/Siena polls from 8 months ago. Just do new ones already.

and he treats them as if they are the gold standard/only polls that matter. we all love NYT/Siena polls and how much he treated us last cycle, but they aren't the end all-be all

[Progressive Pessimist]

Fake news! This is a poll by the Amazon Post!

No really, this is terrible for Trump. Biden improved on his previous numbers in this poll by five times  and is above 50%, by every measurement, where we have also seen Trump's COVID-19 approval absolutely plummet. And this is still a relatively good poll for him when it comes to his approval on both his overall performance and on the virus.

Now, was this poll actually conducted during the riots? If so, it suggests that people are seeing them and not necessarily linking them to Democrats. The buck really may stop with Trump, at least as perceptions are concerned. Between them, the economy, and the virus potential voters probably feel like the nation has become a dystopia during his tenure, I certainly feel this way, and if others do too why would they vote for another four years of it?

[wbrocks67]

It shouldn't be understated that among adults, Biden's lead is THIRTEEN POINTS. I mean, wow.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

"B-but Trump will rebound! Dems in dissarray! Economy! Rioters!"

Burisma, Uranium One, Pizzagate, Benghazi, Her emails!!!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Here's how Trump can still win

I remember late last year people were saying that polls that early were useless, and that it wasn't until March that polls become more meaningful. It's now almost June, and Trump is getting wrecked still.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568

Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

In May of 2004 ABC/Washington Post had Bush and Kerry tied
In May of 2012 ABC/Washington Post had Obama was winning the race by 3 points


At this point Bush and Obama were either leading their opponent or were in a tie with them
Neither of them had their challenger Blowing them away with 10 point lead lol

Sorry but I have to disagree with you
When it comes to an incumbent president Huge leads Do Mean a lot more and if it had been Trump who had a 10 point lead..........many would be saying that this race is over

[SN2903]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Because you said so? Why do you keep making statements as if you are God or something?

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

January 20, 2021: Justice Roberts "Joseph Robinette Biden Jr, do you solemnly swear-" SN2903 "Here's how Trump can still win"

[BoJack Horseman]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

2020 is not 2016, Biden is not Hillary, and none of Trump’s attacks are sticking. The race may narrow but at the end of the day Trump is in big trouble.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Whoa, he crumbles in September now? I thought it was in 2 weeks. Or after the Republican National Convention.

Crazy how the goalpoast keeps moving.

[SN2903]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November.  

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

2020 is not 2016, Biden is not Hillary, and none of Trump’s attacks are sticking. The race may narrow but at the end of the day Trump is in big trouble.

He hasn't attacked him yet that much. Biden isn't Hillary but he is closer to a Hillary than an Obama.

[SN2903]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Whoa, he crumbles in September now? I thought it was in 2 weeks. Or after the Republican National Convention.

Crazy how the goalpoast keeps moving.

You haven't been paying attention. I have said his lead will narrow and narrow until things are tied by RNC/Labor Day.

[woodley park]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November.  

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

2020 is not 2016, Biden is not Hillary, and none of Trump’s attacks are sticking. The race may narrow but at the end of the day Trump is in big trouble.

He hasn't attacked him yet that much. Biden isn't Hillary but he is closer to a Hillary than an Obama.

Quite the contrary, Grump has already thrown the kitchen sink at Biden, and nothing seems to have stuck. I’d like to take your prediction seriously, so could you explain what is going to change between now and Labor Day to make Biden’s lead dissipate? Barring a miracle, we are still going to be in the midst of an economic and public health crisis, with a second wave looming, so what part of that is going to make Trump more popular?

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Whoa, he crumbles in September now? I thought it was in 2 weeks. Or after the Republican National Convention.

Crazy how the goalpoast keeps moving.

You haven't been paying attention. I have said his lead will narrow and narrow until things are tied by RNC/Labor Day.

January 31-Biden +5.4%, February 29-Biden +5.4%, March 31-Biden +5.8%, April 30-Biden +6.2%, May 31-Biden +5.9%. But I guess that 0.3% surge for Trump means Biden is doomed, right?

[ON Progressive]

41 (43) % for an outsider / underdog in May is not bad, for the incumbent president it is

What people need to understand is that Trump has always been the outsider/underdog and he always will be. I'm not saying he's in a good position right now but let's not pretend all the usual rules of incumbency apply to him.

Is this why every single poll has a sizable majority of Americans believing Trump is favoured to win? Because he's seen as the underdog?

[Ferguson97]

41 (43) % for an outsider / underdog in May is not bad, for the incumbent president it is

What people need to understand is that Trump has always been the outsider/underdog and he always will be. I'm not saying he's in a good position right now but let's not pretend all the usual rules of incumbency apply to him.

Is this why every single poll has a sizable majority of Americans believing Trump is favoured to win? Because he's seen as the underdog?

Incumbents usually win and people really don't want to be "wrong"

[Skunk]

Again y'all, stop arguing with SN2903. There is nothing you can say to convince him that Trump isn't going to win. If you point to any poll, either the polls are wrong because they were in 2016 (even though national polls weren't even off by that much in 2016) or it doesn't matter because Trump will go nuclear and Biden will surely be behind in September anyways. Why? Because SN2093 said so, shut up. Think Gretchen Whitmer is popular in Michigan right now? No way, SN2093 and all of his friends hate her, so she must clearly be underwater in approvals.

There is absolutely nothing, and I mean nothing, that he won't adamantly refute because either his Solid levels of partisan hackery and arrogant personality won't let him admit that Trump isn't in the best shape for re-election at the moment. He's dragging this forum down and everyone trying to argue with him only makes him impossible to ignore.

[The Mikado]

Serious question: if this poll had Trump 53, Biden 43, would anyone on this thread be going "Polls, hah. Look at 2016. Polls are worthless?"

No one would. The entire thread would either A. be saying it's crunch time for Biden and that if something doesn't change now he's finished, or B. just writing Biden's obituary.

[tagimaucia]

Was there a divide between higher quality national polls and lesser ones in 2016 in terms of what they were showing, average-wise? I don’t think there was but I’d have to check. There definitely seems to be something going on at the moment. The last 3 A- or above rated polls on 538, if I’m not mistaken:

ABC/Wapo +10
Fox +8
Monmouth +9

The RCP average is still under 6 though.

[wbrocks67]

Was there a divide between higher quality national polls and lesser ones in 2016 in terms of what they were showing, average-wise? I don’t think there was but I’d have to check. There definitely seems to be something going on at the moment. The last 3 A- or above rated polls on 538, if I’m not mistaken:

ABC/Wapo +10
Fox +8
Monmouth +9

The RCP average is still under 6 though.

which is why 538 needs to bring back its aggregator. RCP always has an agenda.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1267418112950853633

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November.  

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

2020 is not 2016, Biden is not Hillary, and none of Trump’s attacks are sticking. The race may narrow but at the end of the day Trump is in big trouble.

He hasn't attacked him yet that much. Biden isn't Hillary but he is closer to a Hillary than an Obama.

My dude, the President got impeached over a campaign move to attack Joe Biden using foreign policy. Did you miss all the weeks of Republicans pretending to care about Hunter Biden while the Trump kids loot the government?

[woodley park]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1267418112950853633

Yeah, this. And just looking around on what you see on TV, it is not hard to see why. Police beating down protesters in the streets, the latter of whom are wearing masks not to hide their identity but to protect themselves from the worst pandemic in a century. The unemployment rate has skyrocketed and won't return to 2019 levels for years, if not longer. Meanwhile, the President of the United States threatens protesters with attack dogs and brute force, peddles conspiracy theories about Joe Scarborough, and encourages armed militias to overthrow local state governments -- seditious acts! Things are so bad right now that it is almost surreal. In like a 'is this actually happening' kind of way. This certainly isn't Morning in America. This IS the American carnage Trump talked about in his inauguration speech.

And I don't see how any of this gets better in the next several months. That is basically what Trumpsters here seem to think. Like COVID was going to magically go away, these protests are going to magically die down, the virus will magically cease killing thousands a day, all the lost jobs are going to magically come back, etc.

I'm not taking anything for granted, and I'm certainly going to vote and agitate all my family and friends for them to vote. But I find it hard to believe that the Trump presidency can continue for another four years after all of this chaos. And I don't feel any need to caveat that with "muh six months is a lifetime in politics" conventional wisdom CYA.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

If numbers look like this in October, the question won't be whether Biden will win. It will be whether Biden will win Texas.