ABC/Washington Post: Biden +10

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1266954740073549824

His lead isn't real. Doesn't have any enthusiasm and Trumps campaign is about to go super negative.

That doesn't change the fact he's polling historically bad for an incumbent president.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This stratification is something:

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1267138822053265408

[Roll Roons]

This stratification is something:

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1267138822053265408

That's not too surprising. The most affected counties tend to be urban ones (most of NYC), and the least are generally pretty rural.

[ProudModerate2]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

SN is funny.
It's always "wait until next week (or two weeks)," "after this or that."
Remember when he was saying wait until Biden's "ain't Black" comment was suppose to be some huge number changer in SN's mind (and in his posts in Atlas)?

This never ends with him. His problem is that he goes and probably salivates on reading posts in some uttra-pro-trump, cultist website. Then he comes here and spews the same wet-dream scenarios and "wait until" fantasy stories.

[Lief 🗽]

It'll be 11pm on election night, the west coast polls will just have closed putting Biden over 270 votes, and morons like David Wasserman will still be tweeting "jUsT wAiT fOr TrUmP tO gO nUcLeAr On BiDeN". Trump has been viciously attacking Biden for months. His son accused him of being a pedophile last week. No one cares. Trump has destroyed the country.

[Crumpets]

Even if we go off the pessimistic 2016 model of having every single undecided voter go to Trump, he still loses by 6.

[Red Willow]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568

Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568
Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

But neither do polls in May mean "nothing at all".  At this distance from the election, poll averages are reasonably well correlated with the final outcome.  This correlation increases the closer we get to the election.  Biden's lead at this point is such that if the election were held next week, he would win pretty easily.  At this point, he is the favorite, and anyone who doesn't believe this is simply engaging in self-delusion.  The potential for change over time is where most of the uncertainty lies.  There is plenty of time for Biden to lose his lead -- but the longer he maintains that lead, the more likely he will be to win in November. 

If this was a football game, I'd say that Team Biden had a two-touchdown lead at halftime.  It's very possible to lose from that position, and many teams have done so (don't talk to me about the Falcons in the Super Bowl).  But you'd still rather be the team who's ahead at this point than the one behind.  And the longer the clock runs while you hold the lead, the harder it will be for the opponent to come back.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/727807114492653568

Not saying it will repeat, but huge leads in May don't mean much.

Oh, cone on. If we were getting Romney 53, Obama 43 in May/June of 2012 people would have been panicking. If this poll were Trump 53, Biden 43, Dem posters here would be writing off the election and saying that "this is why Biden was a mistake" etc.

A candidate being above 50 vs an incumbent with a 10 point lead five months out is a favorite. Just look at the reactions to the Kelly/McSally race a few boards down.

[Dumbo]

41 (43) % for an outsider / underdog in May is not bad, for the incumbent president it is

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1266954740073549824

His lead isn't real. Doesn't have any enthusiasm and Trumps campaign is about to go super negative.

People have been saying that since mid-April when the primaries ended and nothing. He should probably get on that.

He hasn't been able to because of the virus. It's coming

Are you stupid, ignorant, or both?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

SN is funny.
It's always "wait until next week (or two weeks)," "after this or that."
Remember when he was saying wait until Biden's "ain't Black" comment was suppose to be some huge number changer in SN's mind (and in his posts in Atlas)?

This never ends with him. His problem is that he goes and probably salivates on reading posts in some uttra-pro-trump, cultist website. Then he comes here and spews the same wet-dream scenarios and "wait until" fantasy stories.

He's also very, very stupid.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1266954740073549824

His lead isn't real. Doesn't have any enthusiasm and Trumps campaign is about to go super negative.

People have been saying that since mid-April when the primaries ended and nothing. He should probably get on that.

He hasn't been able to because of the virus. It's coming

Are you stupid, ignorant, or both?

He is a troll.

[wbrocks67]

People need to stop acting like polls in 2016 are comparable to this. Trump is now an incumbent and the situation is completely different. Not to mention, that CNN poll was an outlier, while this +10 Biden poll is not that far off from the current avg of live-caller polls right now.

Also pollsters need to stop acting if you are enthusiastic about Biden or not. They need to ask if you're enthusiastic to vote FOR or AGAINST Trump. There's millions of people out there who are absolutely not enthusiastic to vote for Biden but ARE enthusiastic to vote for him by proxy to get Trump out.

[ElectionsGuy]

People need to stop acting like polls in 2016 are comparable to this. Trump is now an incumbent and the situation is completely different. Not to mention, that CNN poll was an outlier, while this +10 Biden poll is not that far off from the current avg of live-caller polls right now.

Also pollsters need to stop acting if you are enthusiastic about Biden or not. They need to ask if you're enthusiastic to vote FOR or AGAINST Trump. There's millions of people out there who are absolutely not enthusiastic to vote for Biden but ARE enthusiastic to vote for him by proxy to get Trump out.

That CNN poll that you call an outlier is closer to the national average than this poll. Insist that this poll is correct, but don't come back after the election and say "the average of polls wasn't far off" when the poll you think is correct was far off from reality.

For you're second point, a good way to measure that is to ask if the person is "certain to vote" "likely" "not likely" etc. This poll does that. Biden voters happen to skew in those non-"certain to vote" categories making his lead +5 in the category. We should really read this poll as Biden is ahead anywhere from 5 to 10, in addition to margin of error to those values.

[woodley park]

It'll be 11pm on election night, the west coast polls will just have closed putting Biden over 270 votes, and morons like David Wasserman will still be tweeting "jUsT wAiT fOr TrUmP tO gO nUcLeAr On BiDeN". Trump has been viciously attacking Biden for months. His son accused him of being a pedophile last week. No one cares. Trump has destroyed the country.

I think Dave Wasserman tries to caveat Democrats' chances because he wants to be seen as 'nonpartisan'. The numbers favor Democrats right now, so he's trying to throw out something contrarian in order to not seem biased. Maybe? I agree he can be really frustrating, as can most of those eggheads (Amy Walter, Nate Cohn, etc.).

[The Mikado]

It'll be 11pm on election night, the west coast polls will just have closed putting Biden over 270 votes, and morons like David Wasserman will still be tweeting "jUsT wAiT fOr TrUmP tO gO nUcLeAr On BiDeN". Trump has been viciously attacking Biden for months. His son accused him of being a pedophile last week. No one cares. Trump has destroyed the country.

I think Dave Wasserman tries to caveat Democrats' chances because he wants to be seen as 'nonpartisan'. The numbers favor Democrats right now, so he's trying to throw out something contrarian in order to not seem biased. Maybe? I agree he can be really frustrating, as can most of those eggheads (Amy Walter, Nate Cohn, etc.).

I just wish Cohn would stop citing those NYT/Siena polls from 8 months ago. Just do new ones already.

[ElectionsGuy]

41 (43) % for an outsider / underdog in May is not bad, for the incumbent president it is

What people need to understand is that Trump has always been the outsider/underdog and he always will be. I'm not saying he's in a good position right now but let's not pretend all the usual rules of incumbency apply to him.

[Ferguson97]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

Trump has failed this week.

Shut up

Very compelling argument

[woodley park]

It'll be 11pm on election night, the west coast polls will just have closed putting Biden over 270 votes, and morons like David Wasserman will still be tweeting "jUsT wAiT fOr TrUmP tO gO nUcLeAr On BiDeN". Trump has been viciously attacking Biden for months. His son accused him of being a pedophile last week. No one cares. Trump has destroyed the country.

I think Dave Wasserman tries to caveat Democrats' chances because he wants to be seen as 'nonpartisan'. The numbers favor Democrats right now, so he's trying to throw out something contrarian in order to not seem biased. Maybe? I agree he can be really frustrating, as can most of those eggheads (Amy Walter, Nate Cohn, etc.).

I just wish Cohn would stop citing those NYT/Siena polls from 8 months ago. Just do new ones already.

It is remarkable that these people make a career out of being elections analysts. 11 months out of the year they get to caveat everything with "its too early to know, things are going to change, who knows what we'll be dealing with in November."

[CivicParticipant]

"B-but Trump will rebound! Dems in dissarray! Economy! Rioters!"

[NYDem]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

Trump has failed this week.

Shut up

Peak discourse, you convinced me.

[Landslide Lyndon]

41 (43) % for an outsider / underdog in May is not bad, for the incumbent president it is

What people need to understand is that Trump has always been the outsider/underdog and he always will be. I'm not saying he's in a good position right now but let's not pretend all the usual rules of incumbency apply to him.

They certainly did in 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

41 (43) % for an outsider / underdog in May is not bad, for the incumbent president it is

What people need to understand is that Trump has always been the outsider/underdog and he always will be. I'm not saying he's in a good position right now but let's not pretend all the usual rules of incumbency apply to him.

They certainly did in 2018.

Everything will always be about 2016, and anything that has happened since then is completely irrelevant.

[We Live in Black and White]

Yeah, I don't want to jinx us, but it's hard to see Donald Trump, who is a mastermind manipulator but strategizes like a toddler, reversing numbers like that in the time remaining in this election season.