ABC/Washington Post: Biden +10

[Stockdale for Veep]

Since '08 every Presidential election has been simple. If Dems show up, they win. The hate for Trump is so high, I don't see any evidence for them not showing up in Nov.

[The Mikado]

Here's how Trump can still win

Biden +13 with adults, +10 with RV and „only“ +5 with certain voters is slightly concerning.

But considering that right now, people are not that engaged and the Biden crowd will only become fully motivated in the fall after Labor Day, even the 5% lead among certain voters looks very good for Biden right now.

I don't see Biden being at 51% with "Certain to vote" voters and having a bigger lead among groups that include not certain to vote voters is a bad situation at all. 51% at voters certain to vote and 53% with Registered Voters has him being really strong and with room to grow.

This poll really pushes the undecideds. 53-43 is only 4% undecided/other, and 51-46 is only 3% undecided/other. It indicates heavily that when push comes to shove, undecideds are breaking Biden at the moment.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Reminder that Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a late June 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Trump led by 2 at this point in time in the ABC/WaPo in 2016. In fact the monthly results were

May - Trump+2
June - Clinton +12
July - Clinton +4
August - Clinton +8
September - Clinton +8
October - Clinton +4
November(Final) - Clinton +3

Nice try. You left out:

December 2015 - Clinton +6
March - Clinton +9

And the final was Clinton +2, not +3

In May, Trump 2016 got an artificial boost by locking up his party's nod while Clinton was still fighting with Sanders. Biden supporters are now using that comparison to try to make him look good. But the reality is, this number would not have looked out of place in 2016 at all.

What a stupid post.

[President Johnson]

America is ready for Uncle Joe!

The comparison with Hillary makes little sense now that Trump has been in office for 3.5 years. 2016 was also more volatile than this cycle. Joe Biden has had a pretty stable lead for the entire campaign. I don't think he'll win by ten, but by five or six is quite possible.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Certain to Vote (Not the same as a Likely Voter Screen):

51% Biden
46 Trump

It seems to me that the only reason they created this new metric is to maintain the horserace narrative. It's too early in the cycle to even use Likely Voters, let alone this arbitrary Certain to Vote thing.

[tagimaucia]

Is a open election in which there had already been wild back-and-forth poll swings by this same point in time really all that comparable to an incumbent president running for re-election in which the polls have been very stable thus far, barely even changing through a historical pandemic and sudden double digit unemployment?

Overall, it’s good to be reminded that things can change, but I think the comparisons to 2016 are getting increasingly lazy and facile. As election years go, 2020 and 2016 really haven’t been similar (so far).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is a open election in which there had already been wild back-and-forth poll swings by this same point in time really all that comparable to an incumbent president running for re-election in which the polls have been very stable thus far, barely even changing through a historical pandemic and sudden double digit unemployment?

Overall, it’s good to be reminded that things can change, but I think the comparisons to 2016 are getting increasingly lazy and facile. As election years go, 2020 and 2016 really haven’t been similar (so far).

This. If anything this election so far has been like 2018 with stable polling telling a consistent story yet libs traumatized by 2016 are all walking around with chicken little syndrome

[wbrocks67]

RV: Biden 53, Trump 43

Independents: Biden 56, Trump 39
Males: Trump 52, Biden 44
Females: Biden 62, Trump 34
18-39: Biden 64, Trump 32
40-64: Trump 51, Biden 45
65+: Biden 54, Trump 44
Suburbs: Biden 51, Trump 45

The cross tabs for some reason don’t break out the nonwhite vote, but the article has Biden’s support at 89% of blacks and 69% of Hispanics, which is exactly where he needs to be. (i was told Biden was struggling with Hispanics and was going to lose support among blacks)

The major thing in this poll is that Biden is dominating the young vote, basically duplicating the 2018 midterm exit polls (again i was told Biden was struggling with younger voters), while this is one more poll where Biden is leading among 65+.

[wbrocks67]

Trump job approval: 45-53 (-8)
Trump coronavirus handling approval: 46/53 (-7)

Trump fav: 42/55 (-13)
Biden fav: 46/48 (-2)

Who to trust with coronavirus spread? Biden 50, Trump 42
Who to trust with efforts to help economy: Biden 47, Trump 47

Honest and trustworthy? Biden 48, Trump 35
Understand problems of people like them? Biden 45, Trump 38
Temperament and personality to be president? Biden 53, Trump 38
Mental sharpness to serve effectively? Biden 51, Trump 46

--

The trump approval is oddly high here, but most of the #s match up. Also once again, Biden nearly cracks even in favorability, while Trump remains in double digits

[cvparty]

RV: Biden 53, Trump 43

Independents: Biden 56, Trump 39
Males: Trump 52, Biden 44
Females: Biden 62, Trump 34
18-39: Biden 64, Trump 32
40-64: Trump 51, Biden 45
65+: Biden 54, Trump 44
Suburbs: Biden 51, Trump 45

The cross tabs for some reason don’t break out the nonwhite vote, but the article has Biden’s support at 89% of blacks and 69% of Hispanics, which is exactly where he needs to be. (i was told Biden was struggling with Hispanics and was going to lose support among blacks)

The major thing in this poll is that Biden is dominating the young vote, basically duplicating the 2018 midterm exit polls (again i was told Biden was struggling with younger voters), while this is one more poll where Biden is leading among 65+.

i agree that the anti-biden vote is overstated, but turnout matters just as much as the margin. if youth/hispanic voters fail to show up then it neutralizes biden’s percentage gain with the group

[wbrocks67]

Certain to Vote (Not the same as a Likely Voter Screen):

51% Biden
46 Trump

It seems to me that the only reason they created this new metric is to maintain the horserace narrative. It's too early in the cycle to even use Likely Voters, let alone this arbitrary Certain to Vote thing.

right, b/c they could've just done a LV screen, but went with the "extremely certain to vote." Not withstanding that the Fox News poll last week had this flipped, with Dems more certain/excited to vote than Rs

[SN2903]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

Trump has failed this week.

Shut up

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1266954740073549824

[AGA]

Not everything is determined by 2016.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman is again contrarian just for the sake of it. Has he not read the articles about Trump's campaign trying a dozen different messages against Biden and none of them sticking?
He also ignores the fact that Biden is a much better known challenger than usual and to define him negatively isn't  just a matter of money.

Also the notion that Trump could lose by 5 points and still win the electoral college is absurd and pure clickbait.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

SN knows this, Ds have won landslides before and won rust belt states before in 76: OH, WI, PA, 88 IA, WI, 92-96, 08-12 MI, WI, IA, OH, PA and WI and 2000, IA, WI, MI, PA and 2004 MI, PA, WI

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1267075925688160256

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1266949774114201601

Yeah it's not rocket science to know that Trump is behind Biden at the moment.

[tagimaucia]

Wasserman is again contrarian just for the sake of it. Has he not read the articles about Trump's campaign trying a dozen different messages against Biden and none of them sticking?
He also ignores the fact that Biden is a much better known challenger than usual and to define him negatively isn't  just a matter of money.

Also the notion that Trump could lose by 5 points and still win the electoral college is absurd and pure clickbait.

Wasserman is a knowledgable guy but he’s very stubborn. Once he gets set on a particular idea, which usually happens to be whatever the conventional wisdom is (in this case that the election is bound to be extremely close),  he views everything through that lens and refuses to even question that he could be off base.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1267092785213124609

If this is true, this is pretty devastating for Trump.

[PSOL]

A Biden victory with these margins would annihilate the Republican Party and ensure Democratic dominance in politics for a decade, perhaps even more. I’m interested to see if this lead tightens or expands as the election rears it’s head in the fall.

Yeah, I expected that from all the chaos this administration dragged the nation in, and the fact that most businesses are losing their expected stock growth big time, that naturally things would shift to the technocratic New Democrats. No one wants this disaster of an administration to continue.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

The only time I really put any stock into what Wasserman says is when votes are being counted. Most of his polling takes are terrible. All he does is search for that Dems in Disarray narrative.

[The Mikado]

A Biden victory with these margins would annihilate the Republican Party and ensure Democratic dominance in politics for a decade, perhaps even more.

Obama beat McCain by 7.3% nationally and won two thirds of the Electoral Vote. Two years later, the GOP had one of the biggest midterm landslides in American history.

Just because a defeat is resounding doesn't necessarily indicate anything about the future. For an extreme example, look at the overwhelming GOP landslide in 1928 (which, coupled with the GOP landslides in 1920 and 1924, was starting to look like an endgame for the Democratic Party) and the GOP's utter humiliation and loss of power for 20 years that was right around the corner. (And even THAT didn't kill the Republican Party either!)

A loss by this margins WOULD force the GOP into an internal civil war about Trump, though.

[Adam Griffin]

Biden+17 among independents, same poll

Trump is completely finished if that's the case. Absolutely no way can you win when you're opponent is winning independents by 17 points.

Well, you can, but not if you're a Republican.

[RFKFan68]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1266954740073549824

His lead isn't real. Doesn't have any enthusiasm and Trumps campaign is about to go super negative.

My dad dislikes both nominees and will be voting for Biden to get Trump’s ass out. An unenthusiastic vote doesn’t count any less. And my dad is the exact type of Black voter that Trump should theoretically be able to take from Biden but he can’t stop being a racist, antagonistic prick for five seconds.