Northern vs Southern Georgia

[voice_of_resistance]

North Georgia is ancestrally Republican to some extent, it is rather mountainous and the terrain did not lend itself as well to slavery as the coastal plain in the South. The R-friendly nature was masked until quite recently because of politicians like Zell Miller who could win over conservative whites. I think that some counties up here supported the Union in the Civil War. Nowadays, though, North Georgia is ruby-red, and GA-09 is over R+30, which is why they have such hardcore conservatives like Doug Collins. Beautiful mountains though.

South Georgia on the other hand is a large coastal plain, and was Democratic up until quite recently. Until the old post-64 coalition of blacks and poor rural whites collapsed, South Georgia was usually more Democratic than North Georgia. This is also because South Georgia has more black people, a relic of the huge slaveocracy that used to run the region. There is still some Democratic strength, but it runs through the Black Belt, which is a strip of counties going from Columbus and the surrounding counties to the south, across the state to Macon, Milledgeville, and Augusta.

I'd say they probably have more agriculture in the south than they do in the north, but lots of cows in the north vs. large fields of peanuts/cotton/tobacco in the south. Jimmy Carter is from Southwest Georgia, where his peanut farm was. Probably both equally evangelical I would say. On average, north Georgia is wealthier, as there are some Atlanta suburbs and exurbs that sprawl out into the Piedmont and the base of the mountains. In the south, though, it's acre upon acre of farmland until you hit the coast, where you have Savannah and some retirement communities that are growing at a decent clip (Brunswick is Glynn County, this is where Ahmaud Arbery was tragically killed), all the way down to the St. Mary's River at the Florida border, next to the Okeefenokee swamp.

Politically speaking, both are solid red right now. The north Georgia districts are the Atlanta ones, as well as 9,10,11, and 14. All four of those are solid red, but 11 could become light red with Atlanta's suburban growth. 14 is too red, anchored with rural northwest Georgia, and 9 is pretty much mountain towns and cows outside of Gainesville. 10 has Athens and some Black Belt counties from Middle Georgia but the surrounding counties in the north are uber-red and thus make it not a good bet.

South Georgia is more interesting though. Currently Democrats hold the 2nd district in the Southwest anchored around Columbus, and in theory the Savannah-area district (1) could become competitive down the line, with a little bluing of the city and its surrounding suburbs. The 12th district has Augusta and its suburbs in it, which make for a fairly evenly divided seat, but are then swamped with dark red South Georgia counties (many of which used to be Democratic about 20 years ago) to keep it out of play. Finally, there is the 8th which takes in a swath of southern Georgia from Macon and Warner Robins to Valdosta on the Florida border.

Fundamentally, when you think of North vs. South Georgia, there's two types of South at play. North Georgia is "twang", and South Georgia is a "drawl". Hope this helps

[voice_of_resistance]

Yes, this was John Barrow's old GA-12. They cracked those rural Middle Georgia Black Belt counties between the 10th and 12th, and then lumped in Columbia County and some of Southeast Georgia's Trump 85%+ counties to finish him.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

[voice_of_resistance]

you don't need a safe D seat. Savannah and Coast is GA-01. GA-12 is Augusta/central GA Black Belt counties, you can get it to be like Clinton +1.

[voice_of_resistance]

Adding Columbia to the 12th makes it much more difficult to draw a proper COI-based district in East Georgia that is Dem-leaning.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2591876f-608d-47c7-93b9-8514c62d4b53

That is my take on what a fair South Georgia would look like, although the ATL metro is a bit of a Democratic gerrymander.

CD-1: Savannah/North Altamaha, Trump 55-42, Kemp 55-44
CD-2: Columbus and Southwest, Clinton 49.3-48.9, Abrams 50.9-49.1 (50.2 white/44.1 BVAP)
CD-3: Western Georgia, Trump 67-30, Kemp 67-33
CD-4: DeKalb/central Gwinnett, Clinton 72-25, Abrams 76-23 (40.3 white/42.5 BVAP)
CD-5: Atlanta, Clinton 85-12, Abrams 89-10 (67% BVAP)
CD-6: Cobb County, Clinton 49-47, Abrams 54-44
CD-7: north Fulton/Johns Creek, Clinton 51-45, Abrams 55-44
CD-8: Warner Robins, Valdosta, South Georgia/South Altamaha, Trump 68-30, Kemp 69-31
CD-9: Northeast Georgia, Trump 75-22, Kemp 76-23
CD-10: Athens, Winder, east Atlanta, Clinton 48.8-48, Abrams 53-46
CD-11: Forsyth/Hall/north Gwinnett, Trump 68-28, Kemp 67-32
CD-12: Augusta/Macon/East Georgia, Clinton 49.2-48.7, Kemp 49.9-49.5
CD-13: south Atlanta suburbs, Clinton 59-38, Abrams 64-36 (42.7 white/46.5 BVAP)
CD-14: Bartow/Cherokee/Northwest Georgia, Trump 75-21, Kemp 76-23

This new 12th is the only Clinton/Kemp district in the state but Barrow would easily hold it as it is virtually even and current GA-12 is Trump +15 or so.

[voice_of_resistance]

yes, but the key part of that sentence is the "Dem-leaning" bit. Adding Columbia forces the 12th to go into either Savannah, Macon, or Athens up north which are both outside the general East Georgia COIs.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah, one could obviously draw a fairly Dem-leaning seat in East Georgia, but it'd take a lot of gerrymandering. I think your maps are great, but putting Athens in the 12th dilutes the voting power of some of those Belt counties that are not in the 12th, like Twiggs and Wilkinson. Athens changes the anchor of the district from Augusta/Belt to Augusta/Athens and decreases the voting power of rural black Georgians. That said, though, a fairer map statewide would probably include Athens because if they don't it's fairly easy to draw GA-10 as a tossup seat with some of eastern Atlanta suburbs. In all honestly, Barrow could probably win any seat up to a Trump +8 seat.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah, it's complicated. If Dems did even 5 points better with the whites in the area, like around 2008-levels, then drawing 2 seats would be extremely easy. The other thing about GA-12 with Athens is it makes GA-10 into an extremely weird-looking seat. It's definitely tough for sure, but I can see good arguments for it.

[voice_of_resistance]

In attempting to create a "worst possible" map, I have now made a 10-4 Democratic gerrymander, where 3 out of 4 South Georgia seats are D-leaning. I incorporated your suggestion about merging Augusta/Athens metros into one CD.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4006eb58-74da-4b81-b5dd-2ea8a2947139

CD-1: SE Georgia, Trump 71-27, Kemp 73-27
CD-2: SW Georgia/Valdosta, Clinton 50-48, Abrams 51-48
CD-3: west Georgia/Warner Robins, Trump 67-31, Kemp 68-32
CD-4: downtown ATL/DeKalb, Clinton 91-7, Abrams 94-6!!!
CD-5: South Fulton/Douglas/Paulding, Clinton 63-35, Abrams 68-32
CD-6: Cobb/Buckhead/central Fulton, Clinton 53-42, Abrams 58-41
CD-7: Cumming/Dunwoody/Lilburn, Trump 50-46, Abrams 49-48
CD-8: Macon/Savannah/Statesboro, Clinton 49-48, Abrams 50-48
CD-9: NE Georgia, Trump 79-19, Kemp 80-19!!!
CD-10: Winder/Gwinnett/south Forsyth, Trump 51-45, Abrams 51-48
CD-11: Cherokee/Sandy Springs/Clarkston, Trump 49-47, Abrams 50-48
CD-12: Augusta/Athens/Belt, Trump 48.6-48.5, Abrams 50-49
CD-13: McDonough/Conyers/Monroe, Trump 49-48, Abrams 53-46
CD-14: Rome/Bartow/NW Georgia, Trump 75-22, Kemp 76-23

Clinton/Abrams: 2,4,5,6,8
Clinton/Kemp: none
Trump/Abrams: 7,10,11,12,13
Trump/Kemp: 1,3,9,14

Most of these seats are trending D, and even for the ones that aren't we have plenty of good incumbents/strong candidates. Bishop regularly overperforms in CD2, Jim Marshall could legitimately win this CD-8, and Barrow would be fine in CD12.

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4006eb58-74da-4b81-b5dd-2ea8a2947139

VRA compliant! now there are 4 maj-min districts.

new CD-4: Clinton 68-30, Abrams 71-28
new CD-13: Clinton 69-29, Abrams 73-26

Thanks for the feedback, your 9-5 is great too. Honestly 9-5 with 2 Dem south GA seats is probably easier and safer, I just wanted to see how much I could stretch it.

[voice_of_resistance]

Oh obviously. I added Athens to the 12th to make it work, but obviously I was just trying to see how many D-leaning seats you can squeeze out of southern Georgia.

[voice_of_resistance]

Oh obviously. I freely admit it. It was an experiment lol. A "fair map" would have 5 ATL Dem seats, the SW GA AA seat, and a tossup/lean R eastern GA seat, to be either 7-7 or 6-8.

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23a7fc86-64f0-4f03-a220-405554c1ddea

Here is one such fair map.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

In the South, when Dems gerrymander, they elect people who care about white and black people. when the GOP does it, their politicians don't give a sh**t about black constituents. Also you can draw a light red GA-12 that a moderate Dem would easily win.

[voice_of_resistance]

they're close enough and are def the two larger populated counties in the area. Macon is like 55-45 Dem and Warner Robins is like 65-35 R. Logically they should be grouped together but the AA vote is usually given to shore up Sanford Bishop.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

In the South, when Dems gerrymander, they elect people who care about white and black people. when the GOP does it, their politicians don't give a sh**t about black constituents. Also you can draw a light red GA-12 that a moderate Dem would easily win.

Gee, you’re certainly not biased at all.

Anyway, to claim that G.K.Butterfield, Alma Adams, Mel Watt, Hank Johnson, Bennie Thomas, or Sheila Jackson Lee care about **all** their constituents, while say Tim Scott or Doug Collins does not is, uh, rich. After all, doesn’t sexually abusing your employees, like Melvin Watt (D-Charlotte) did, so very representative and kind? What about literally going to prison and losing your Obama +50~ seat for corruption, like William Jefferson? Idk though man, maybe Hank Johnson really is meeting the needs of his poor urban ATL district by checks notes asking if the island of Guam is going to sink.

Fine, maybe I’ve been a little harsh. But when you get quotes like this:

Jackson Lee complained in 2003 that storm names were too white. "All racial groups should be represented," she said, and asked officials to "try to be inclusive of African-American names."[50]

I’m somewhat doubtful of the apparently deity like powers of Democratic congressmen/woman to represent their districts.

Maybe I was a little extreme, but the decline of moderate southern Democrats who are replaced by insanely right-wing Republicans has had much to do with the decline of our politics. Some of this happened naturally, but others (as a Republican from North Carolina I'm sure you'd know) were forcibly done through gerrymandering.

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair enough. NC-11 and NC-07 would still have turned safe red, but in 2016 or 2018, not in 2012 as they were artificially forced to do. Also considering that Butterfield/Thompson regularly overperform the baseline, I'd be inclined to say that yes, their white constituents are cared for just fine.

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair enough. NC-11 and NC-07 would still have turned safe red, but in 2016 or 2018, not in 2012 as they were artificially forced to do. Also considering that Butterfield/Thompson regularly overperform the baseline, I'd be inclined to say that yes, their white constituents are cared for just fine.

Gerrymandering artificially speeding up trends to lock in political power. What the Dems are about to do in VA is terrible and I oppose it. What the GOP did in NC/WI/OH/PA/a bunch of other states is also bad an I oppose it.

[voice_of_resistance]

Why? Genuinely curious, not trying to pick a fight. Didn't Shuler still win extremely convincingly in 2010, as did McIntyre? Hudson I could have seen losing because his turf wasn't as ancestrally blue.

[voice_of_resistance]

Right yeah that makes more sense. I didn't know much about Shuler's opponent being weak. NC-07/NC-08 still has a high enough floor for Dems though because of the black/Lumbee populations, more so NC-08. NC-07 is going the way of NC-03 though soon enough.

[voice_of_resistance]

well the current NC-09 and NC-08 are designed to dilute the Sandhills's voting power. 9 merges Union with Richmond/Anson/Hoke/Scotland/Robeson, and 8 merges Cabarrus/Stanly/Moore/Montgomery with Fayetteville. Logically one would have a Charlotte R suburb/exurb district be NC-09 and then you would have those rural counties plus Fayetteville down to Bladen to make NC-08. Columbus in your map is further away than the rest of the counties in the seat so I'd personally put it with 7.