Northern vs Southern Georgia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In attempting to create a "worst possible" map, I have now made a 10-4 Democratic gerrymander, where 3 out of 4 South Georgia seats are D-leaning. I incorporated your suggestion about merging Augusta/Athens metros into one CD.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4006eb58-74da-4b81-b5dd-2ea8a2947139

CD-1: SE Georgia, Trump 71-27, Kemp 73-27
CD-2: SW Georgia/Valdosta, Clinton 50-48, Abrams 51-48
CD-3: west Georgia/Warner Robins, Trump 67-31, Kemp 68-32
CD-4: downtown ATL/DeKalb, Clinton 91-7, Abrams 94-6!!!
CD-5: South Fulton/Douglas/Paulding, Clinton 63-35, Abrams 68-32
CD-6: Cobb/Buckhead/central Fulton, Clinton 53-42, Abrams 58-41
CD-7: Cumming/Dunwoody/Lilburn, Trump 50-46, Abrams 49-48
CD-8: Macon/Savannah/Statesboro, Clinton 49-48, Abrams 50-48
CD-9: NE Georgia, Trump 79-19, Kemp 80-19!!!
CD-10: Winder/Gwinnett/south Forsyth, Trump 51-45, Abrams 51-48
CD-11: Cherokee/Sandy Springs/Clarkston, Trump 49-47, Abrams 50-48
CD-12: Augusta/Athens/Belt, Trump 48.6-48.5, Abrams 50-49
CD-13: McDonough/Conyers/Monroe, Trump 49-48, Abrams 53-46
CD-14: Rome/Bartow/NW Georgia, Trump 75-22, Kemp 76-23

Clinton/Abrams: 2,4,5,6,8
Clinton/Kemp: none
Trump/Abrams: 7,10,11,12,13
Trump/Kemp: 1,3,9,14

Most of these seats are trending D, and even for the ones that aren't we have plenty of good incumbents/strong candidates. Bishop regularly overperforms in CD2, Jim Marshall could legitimately win this CD-8, and Barrow would be fine in CD12.

Couldn't you exchange territory between 4 and 13?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

anyway I made a good 9-5 map here:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=346841.msg7381029#msg7381029

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4006eb58-74da-4b81-b5dd-2ea8a2947139

VRA compliant! now there are 4 maj-min districts.

new CD-4: Clinton 68-30, Abrams 71-28
new CD-13: Clinton 69-29, Abrams 73-26

Thanks for the feedback, your 9-5 is great too. Honestly 9-5 with 2 Dem south GA seats is probably easier and safer, I just wanted to see how much I could stretch it.

[lfromnj]

Adding Columbia to the 12th makes it much more difficult to draw a proper COI-based district in East Georgia that is Dem-leaning.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2591876f-608d-47c7-93b9-8514c62d4b53

That is my take on what a fair South Georgia would look like, although the ATL metro is a bit of a Democratic gerrymander.

CD-1: Savannah/North Altamaha, Trump 55-42, Kemp 55-44
CD-2: Columbus and Southwest, Clinton 49.3-48.9, Abrams 50.9-49.1 (50.2 white/44.1 BVAP)
CD-3: Western Georgia, Trump 67-30, Kemp 67-33
CD-4: DeKalb/central Gwinnett, Clinton 72-25, Abrams 76-23 (40.3 white/42.5 BVAP)
CD-5: Atlanta, Clinton 85-12, Abrams 89-10 (67% BVAP)
CD-6: Cobb County, Clinton 49-47, Abrams 54-44
CD-7: north Fulton/Johns Creek, Clinton 51-45, Abrams 55-44
CD-8: Warner Robins, Valdosta, South Georgia/South Altamaha, Trump 68-30, Kemp 69-31
CD-9: Northeast Georgia, Trump 75-22, Kemp 76-23
CD-10: Athens, Winder, east Atlanta, Clinton 48.8-48, Abrams 53-46
CD-11: Forsyth/Hall/north Gwinnett, Trump 68-28, Kemp 67-32
CD-12: Augusta/Macon/East Georgia, Clinton 49.2-48.7, Kemp 49.9-49.5
CD-13: south Atlanta suburbs, Clinton 59-38, Abrams 64-36 (42.7 white/46.5 BVAP)
CD-14: Bartow/Cherokee/Northwest Georgia, Trump 75-21, Kemp 76-23

This new 12th is the only Clinton/Kemp district in the state but Barrow would easily hold it as it is virtually even and current GA-12 is Trump +15 or so.

A proper COI district in East Georgia would keep Columbia with Augusta as that is literally the city + a burb. A D leaning district isn't that region and trying to do that is actively a gerrymander.

[voice_of_resistance]

Oh obviously. I added Athens to the 12th to make it work, but obviously I was just trying to see how many D-leaning seats you can squeeze out of southern Georgia.

[lfromnj]

But that map isn't remotely fair even in South georgia, you just made a competitive/D leaning gerrymander

[voice_of_resistance]

Oh obviously. I freely admit it. It was an experiment lol. A "fair map" would have 5 ATL Dem seats, the SW GA AA seat, and a tossup/lean R eastern GA seat, to be either 7-7 or 6-8.

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23a7fc86-64f0-4f03-a220-405554c1ddea

Here is one such fair map.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This entire thread reminds me of seeing BRTD try to defend the Texas Dem Gerrymander (old thread, from like 2005 iirc) by saying a majority of the people in each district supported it lol

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23a7fc86-64f0-4f03-a220-405554c1ddea

Here is one such fair map.

I'd raise you this.



There are a few things I'm unhappy with:
-the new 4th (red) is a bit of a hash forced by neighboring districts
-the new 2nd is only barely majority black
-large precinct sized make the splits in Coweta and Henry very ugly, and forced me to split Barrow rather than Walton--if this was an actual proposal precincts in Walton County would have been split.

But you get logical fair districts which respect communities of interest.

Mods, if possible, could you move the redistricting parts to the GA discussion?

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

In the South, when Dems gerrymander, they elect people who care about white and black people. when the GOP does it, their politicians don't give a sh**t about black constituents. Also you can draw a light red GA-12 that a moderate Dem would easily win.

[lfromnj]

Btw how closely related are Warner Robbins and Macon?
It looks like a urban +suburban county at first look but they seem more like seperate cities. Im not sure if they should be seperated. The Macon +Warner robbins CSA can form like 470k people which gives it significant influence over a district which I think should be done if the cities are related.

[voice_of_resistance]

they're close enough and are def the two larger populated counties in the area. Macon is like 55-45 Dem and Warner Robins is like 65-35 R. Logically they should be grouped together but the AA vote is usually given to shore up Sanford Bishop.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

In the South, when Dems gerrymander, they elect people who care about white and black people. when the GOP does it, their politicians don't give a sh**t about black constituents. Also you can draw a light red GA-12 that a moderate Dem would easily win.

Gee, you’re certainly not biased at all.

Anyway, to claim that G.K.Butterfield, Alma Adams, Mel Watt, Hank Johnson, Bennie Thomas, or Sheila Jackson Lee care about **all** their constituents, while say Tim Scott or Doug Collins does not is, uh, rich. After all, doesn’t sexually abusing your employees, like Melvin Watt (D-Charlotte) did, so very representative and kind? What about literally going to prison and losing your Obama +50~ seat for corruption, like William Jefferson? Idk though man, maybe Hank Johnson really is meeting the needs of his poor urban ATL district by checks notes asking if the island of Guam is going to sink.

Fine, maybe I’ve been a little harsh. But when you get quotes like this:

Jackson Lee complained in 2003 that storm names were too white. "All racial groups should be represented," she said, and asked officials to "try to be inclusive of African-American names."[50]

I’m somewhat doubtful of the apparently deity like powers of Democratic congressmen/woman to represent their districts.

[Sol]

Btw how closely related are Warner Robbins and Macon?
It looks like a urban +suburban county at first look but they seem more like seperate cities. Im not sure if they should be seperated. The Macon +Warner robbins CSA can form like 470k people which gives it significant influence over a district which I think should be done if the cities are related.

In an ideal world they would be put together, but it's basically impossible to do so and comply with the VRA since Macon is needed to make the 2nd district majority Black.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

In the South, when Dems gerrymander, they elect people who care about white and black people. when the GOP does it, their politicians don't give a sh**t about black constituents. Also you can draw a light red GA-12 that a moderate Dem would easily win.

Gee, you’re certainly not biased at all.

Anyway, to claim that G.K.Butterfield, Alma Adams, Mel Watt, Hank Johnson, Bennie Thomas, or Sheila Jackson Lee care about **all** their constituents, while say Tim Scott or Doug Collins does not is, uh, rich. After all, doesn’t sexually abusing your employees, like Melvin Watt (D-Charlotte) did, so very representative and kind? What about literally going to prison and losing your Obama +50~ seat for corruption, like William Jefferson? Idk though man, maybe Hank Johnson really is meeting the needs of his poor urban ATL district by checks notes asking if the island of Guam is going to sink.

Fine, maybe I’ve been a little harsh. But when you get quotes like this:

Jackson Lee complained in 2003 that storm names were too white. "All racial groups should be represented," she said, and asked officials to "try to be inclusive of African-American names."[50]

I’m somewhat doubtful of the apparently deity like powers of Democratic congressmen/woman to represent their districts.

Maybe I was a little extreme, but the decline of moderate southern Democrats who are replaced by insanely right-wing Republicans has had much to do with the decline of our politics. Some of this happened naturally, but others (as a Republican from North Carolina I'm sure you'd know) were forcibly done through gerrymandering.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The minute the Senate goes blue, they pass HR1, and then we bring back districts like GA-12 to elect more moderate Dems.

"gerrymandering is okay when we do it"

This but unironically.

I'm fine with saying that. I personally hold the same stance, but I find it annoying when Dems are both simultaneously holier than thou and doing the same thing behind their backs.

In the South, when Dems gerrymander, they elect people who care about white and black people. when the GOP does it, their politicians don't give a sh**t about black constituents. Also you can draw a light red GA-12 that a moderate Dem would easily win.

Gee, you’re certainly not biased at all.

Anyway, to claim that G.K.Butterfield, Alma Adams, Mel Watt, Hank Johnson, Bennie Thomas, or Sheila Jackson Lee care about **all** their constituents, while say Tim Scott or Doug Collins does not is, uh, rich. After all, doesn’t sexually abusing your employees, like Melvin Watt (D-Charlotte) did, so very representative and kind? What about literally going to prison and losing your Obama +50~ seat for corruption, like William Jefferson? Idk though man, maybe Hank Johnson really is meeting the needs of his poor urban ATL district by checks notes asking if the island of Guam is going to sink.

Fine, maybe I’ve been a little harsh. But when you get quotes like this:

Jackson Lee complained in 2003 that storm names were too white. "All racial groups should be represented," she said, and asked officials to "try to be inclusive of African-American names."[50]

I’m somewhat doubtful of the apparently deity like powers of Democratic congressmen/woman to represent their districts.

Maybe I was a little extreme, but the decline of moderate southern Democrats who are replaced by insanely right-wing Republicans has had much to do with the decline of our politics. Some of this happened naturally, but others (as a Republican from North Carolina I'm sure you'd know) were forcibly done through gerrymandering.

While I appreciate that you may not like it, even a "fair" NC-11 or NC-07 is staying Solid R now, and that's just the reality -- we, the people of the South, get to choose who we want to represent us in Congress, and if that doesn't please some liberals from Massachusetts, well, that's fine by me.

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair enough. NC-11 and NC-07 would still have turned safe red, but in 2016 or 2018, not in 2012 as they were artificially forced to do. Also considering that Butterfield/Thompson regularly overperform the baseline, I'd be inclined to say that yes, their white constituents are cared for just fine.

[Sol]

Fair enough. NC-11 and NC-07 would still have turned safe red, but in 2016 or 2018, not in 2012 as they were artificially forced to do. Also considering that Butterfield/Thompson regularly overperform the baseline, I'd be inclined to say that yes, their white constituents are cared for just fine.

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair enough. NC-11 and NC-07 would still have turned safe red, but in 2016 or 2018, not in 2012 as they were artificially forced to do. Also considering that Butterfield/Thompson regularly overperform the baseline, I'd be inclined to say that yes, their white constituents are cared for just fine.

Gerrymandering artificially speeding up trends to lock in political power. What the Dems are about to do in VA is terrible and I oppose it. What the GOP did in NC/WI/OH/PA/a bunch of other states is also bad an I oppose it.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Fair enough. NC-11 and NC-07 would still have turned safe red, but in 2016 or 2018, not in 2012 as they were artificially forced to do. Also considering that Butterfield/Thompson regularly overperform the baseline, I'd be inclined to say that yes, their white constituents are cared for just fine.

Lmao no, 2014 is when they'd have flipped at worst, though NC-11 would have likely flipped in 2012.

[voice_of_resistance]

Why? Genuinely curious, not trying to pick a fight. Didn't Shuler still win extremely convincingly in 2010, as did McIntyre? Hudson I could have seen losing because his turf wasn't as ancestrally blue.