Will Trumpism die as quickly as it rose assuming Trump loses in 2020?

[2016]

Democrats only doing well because well TRUMP IS ON THE BALLOT. But assuming he loses will the Populist at times racial Message from him die with him?

Chime in!

[OBD]

The GOP and its politicians will do whatever is politically advantageous. So, if Trump gets curb-stomped by Biden, the answer to your question is 'yes'. If it's a closer race, it's a 'no'. Principle in the Republican Party is long-dead, cauterized by Trump and his lackeys.

[2016]

The GOP and its politicians will do whatever is politically advantageous. So, if Trump gets curb-stomped by Biden, the answer to your question is 'yes'. If it's a closer race, it's a 'no'. Principle in the Republican Party is long-dead, cauterized by Trump and his lackeys.

I mean if we had a President Kasich or President Rubio instead of Trump Arizona, Georgia and Texas wouldn't be competitive this year.

So, it's not so much about Demographics in those States. Instead it's about Trump and Trumpism.

Kasich or Rubio would have beaten Clinton in an Obama-2008 like landslide in 2016 and they both would have done the same in 2020.

Democrats are incredibly lucky that they could & can run against Trump for 3 Election Cycles in a row.

I doubt that they will have this much luck in the Future.

[Roll Roons]

The GOP and its politicians will do whatever is politically advantageous. So, if Trump gets curb-stomped by Biden, the answer to your question is 'yes'. If it's a closer race, it's a 'no'. Principle in the Republican Party is long-dead, cauterized by Trump and his lackeys.

I mean if we had a President Kasich or President Rubio instead of Trump Arizona, Georgia and Texas wouldn't be competitive this year.

So, it's not so much about Demographics in those States. Instead it's about Trump and Trumpism.

Kasich or Rubio would have beaten Clinton in an Obama-2008 like landslide in 2016 and they both would have done the same in 2020.

Democrats are incredibly lucky that they could & can run against Trump for 3 Election Cycles in a row.

I doubt that they will have this much luck in the Future.

Honestly, Republicans wouldn't have even lost the House if anyone else was president. Democrats might have still picked up a few seats like CA-49, VA-10, IL-10 (which wouldn't flip in 2016), CO-06, but most of those suburban voters would not be disgusted with Kasich or Rubio like they are with Trump.

[2016]

The GOP and its politicians will do whatever is politically advantageous. So, if Trump gets curb-stomped by Biden, the answer to your question is 'yes'. If it's a closer race, it's a 'no'. Principle in the Republican Party is long-dead, cauterized by Trump and his lackeys.

I mean if we had a President Kasich or President Rubio instead of Trump Arizona, Georgia and Texas wouldn't be competitive this year.

So, it's not so much about Demographics in those States. Instead it's about Trump and Trumpism.

Kasich or Rubio would have beaten Clinton in an Obama-2008 like landslide in 2016 and they both would have done the same in 2020.

Democrats are incredibly lucky that they could & can run against Trump for 3 Election Cycles in a row.

I doubt that they will have this much luck in the Future.

Honestly, Republicans wouldn't have even lost the House if anyone else was president. Democrats might have still picked up a few seats like CA-49, VA-10, IL-10 (which wouldn't flip in 2016), CO-06, but most of those suburban voters would not be disgusted with Kasich or Rubio like they are with Trump.

Look, I don't deny that there are Demographic Changes going on in Texas, Arizona and Georgia BUT these are not as fast as some Democrats her on Talk Elections claim.

Take Texas for example. Democrats needed a perfect Wave/Storm to take out John Culberson and Pete Sessions. They wouldn't have won those under a Kasich or Rubio Presidency because both wouldn't have been as toxic as Trump and Cruz were in the Suburbs. To support my claim: Governor Abbott got reelected the same Night by a convincing margin which means you put a Generic R in there TX is still a high single digit State for Democrats.

Same with Georgia. Anyone else but Kemp and no Trump and the Republican wins by 7-9 Points.

[brucejoel99]

Oh, they'll give him the W. treatment. In 4 years, it'll be "Donald who?" In 8 or 12, they'll say he was really a Democrat. They'll pretend like nothing happened, but they'll still talk about how "the Democrats are all evil socialists who want black men to have sex with your women!"

[Grassroots]

Right wing populism will continue it's climb to dominance in the GOP.

[Hope For A New Era]

My armchair prediction: It will weaken but not die, and the Republican Party will develop moderate/establishment and radical/Trumpist wings, analogous to the Democratic split.

[Bismarck]

Trump has shifted the GOP base on several issues. The biggest ones are trade and China. The GOP going forward is going to take a position on China similar to the Cold War era with the Soviets. People like Josh Hawley may be the future of the GOP.

[MABA 2020]

The seeds of Trumpism were being sowed in the Republican Party well before 2015 and so I think the movement will linger long after Trump has been defeated. I'm sure the party establishment will try to dig up that 2013 report and make the party competitive in the suburbs again I don't expect GOP voters to go along with that. Even if the establishment is successful and Haley is the 2024 nominee there will be an angry Trumpist faction in the party for years to come.

[RINO Tom]

Right wing populism will continue it's climb to dominance in the GOP.

Its* ... maybe they should keep some non-populists around for spelling and grammar purposes.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

N/A: There is no such thing as Trumpism.

[VPH]

We've seen it grow as a tendency, but Trumpism doesn't have the sticking power that things like neoconservatism have had mainly because it isn't backed by the same intellectual/media infrastructure. But that's also beginning to change too.

[RINO Tom]

My serious answer is that "Trumpism" will evolve and morph into a winning strategy for the GOP.  Hardcore "populists" (i.e., those who specifically support Trump because of some perceived "populism" he embodies) will maintain that Trump permanently changed a "Romney GOP," and we are now seeing the evidence.  Less populist conservatives will point to Trump's likely-less-volatile-and-more-intellectually-impressive successor as a "return to the norm."

What it will actually be is what has been happening since Abraham Lincoln - when the GOP loses an election (as I predict they will in 2020), they will reevaluate where the votes are.  Richard Nixon clearly targeted Southern voters, for example, but he did it wisely; he did not alienate his Northern suburban base, and he famously remarked in his memoirs that he knew he'd never reach "the Wallace voter," and that this person wasn't his target (not saying he didn't win any Wallace voters, but that wasn't the strategy).  Provided Trump loses in 2020, and the GOP is challenging Biden (or more likely his handpicked replacement) in 2024, I think the Republican nominee will try to "have it both ways."  He will try to maintain gains among "White Working Class" voters, but he will also see the need to rebound in suburban areas a bit and get some outreach going to minority and younger voters.

Thus, I think you will see a "populist" GOP in the sense that the party knows its economic policies must have broader appeal than to the donor base.  However, I think you will see less "culturally populist" appeals, hoping those people are already in the bag and feeling the current need is to reach out to perceivingly "flimsy" Democratic voters (i.e., people who might have voted for Romney).  In other words, I predict an opposite of Karl Rove's 2004 strategy of targeting rural voters since he viewed the suburban areas as so rock solid that they didn't need to cater to them.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It'll evolve, and the banner will be carried on by the likes of Hawley, DeSantis, Gaetz, Rand Paul, etc. Trump will be remembered as a Reagan type figure by the base, even if he loses reelection.

[Lumine]

Doubtful. Not impossible you could end up hearing "Donald Trump was not a true conservative" at a 2024 or 2028 GOP debate if he experiences an utter electoral meltdown (which seems to be impossible on account of polarization), but he's clearly managed to appeal to a large number of voters which are likely to continue voting for similar - if possibly more "restrained" in terms of personality - candidates.

It bears reminding it wasn't officeholders who legitimized his brand of politics (despite all the criticisms one may have about their less than courageous behavior), it was voters. Barring some sort of seismic shift in terms of their priorities and/or judgment towards Trump and "Trumpism", it stands to reason a sufficient number will still vote for similar candidates and ideas so as to make it a more permanent attitude. Whether that's enough to create a Trumpism without Trump recipe for victory in a future difficult to predict is impossible to say.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

GOP certainly will not abandon their rhetoric on illegal immigration, I can tell you that. Polls show most americans do not want undocumented immigrants here. So that will benefit them. A message that might work is  wanting to crack down on illegal immigration while attempting to promote legal immigration.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, after Palin whom ushered in the Tea Party in 2010, and brought in Boehner who had to resigned, Palin, whom endorsed Trump, in 2016, will fade

[rhg2052]

No. The Republican voters are more loyal to Trump than they are to the GOP. And Trump is not the kind of person to fade quietly into the background after leaving office. As long as he is alive and has a platform, Trump will still be the leader of the Republican Party, to the chagrin of the Republican establishment.

[MarkD]

I wish it would, but I doubt it. The Justin Amashes, the George W. Bushes, and the George Wills are being left behind with little voice. The party aparatus seems too dedicated to Trump now.

[Hammy]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Trumpism is merely the term applied to what was already starting in the Republican party because he was it's first president--he's merely the current face of it and once he's out they'll know what to do and not do in the future so it doesn't look quite as bad as it is, and if anything will try broadening it's appeal since Trump himself is no longer attached to it.

[Sumner 1868]

No idea what "Trumpism" is supposed to mean. If it means opposing immigration but supporting entitlements, then no. If anything, such politics would work better without his persona.

[dw93]

No, both parties are going to be forced to go in a more populist direction in the coming years, so I don't think it will end in that regard.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trumpism will end to the extent that Trump will be gone. But the populist shift is demographic and it is here to stay.

But I do think candidates will have to kiss the ring and find some way to distance themselves from Trump while also not pissing him off. Have fun with that.

[Intell]

Biden wins 2020 election in landslide gaining house and senate seats
2022 results in slight for republicans, but democrats keep control of house and senate
2024 results in a three way split for Republican Party, a moderate centre-right republican who's pro trade, economically centre-right and socially moderate. A cruzite republican who's socially and economically conservative. A trumpite republican who's economically moderate, and sorta socially conservative but really is anti-immigration and anti-muslims. Cruzite republicans wins primaries, loses 2024 in a landslide and trumpite republicans will take charge of the republicans from then on