Is Greenville County, SC turning blue anytime soon?

[iceman]

It is a huge population center and big urban counties are mostly turning blue.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it might trend somewhat Democratic in 2020, but the 2016 trends would need to continue uninterrupted for a long time before it would flip.  And, trends don't just go forward indefinitely.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As someone from the area, I'd say not in the next decade, though it will be purpler. SC's white suburbs have been one of the few areas where the trends haven't manifested much. A growing minority community will make it grow less red over time though, imo

[Brittain33]

We have a good thread about this county from 1-2 months ago on this board, BTW.

[voice_of_resistance]

as posters have said, it is getting somewhat less red but nothing like ATL suburbs.

I ran the numbers by CD for what a statewide Harrison win would look like.

SC-01: Harrison 52-48 (Trump 54-40, Cunningham 51-49, McMaster 52-48)
SC-02: Graham 51-49 (Trump 56-39, Wilson 56-43, McMaster 54-46)
SC-03: Graham 62-38 (Trump 67-29, Duncan 68-31, McMaster 67-33)
SC-04: Graham 55-45 (Trump 60-35, Timmons 60-37, McMaster 59-41)
SC-05: Graham 53-47 (Trump 57-39, Norman 57-42, McMaster 57-43)
SC-06: Harrison 76-24 (Clinton 67-30, Clyburn 70-28, Smith 70-30)
SC-07: Graham 54-46 (Trump 58-39, Rice 60-40, McMaster 57-43)

The biggest challenges for Dems in the state are SC-03 and SC-04. Districts 2, 5, and 7 all have a decent amount of black population to keep a respectable margin but Harrison will have to make inroads with the white voters Upstate, which the House candidates and James Smith all seemed to have trouble with. Still like 98% chance Graham wins.

[Tartarus Sauce]

No, it will swing somewhat more Democratic, but upland SC has become a haven for relocating middle-class/upper-middle class, college-educated Evangelicals.

[TML]

If counties like this one are turning blue, we should also expect counties like Madison & Mobile in Alabama to turn blue along with it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If counties like this one are turning blue, we should also expect counties like Madison & Mobile in Alabama to turn blue along with it.

Madison will flip first

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If counties like this one are turning blue, we should also expect counties like Madison & Mobile in Alabama to turn blue along with it.

Madison will flip first

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's already quite blue, Atlas blue that is.

[Del Tachi]

Greenville County is urban in the same way that a place like Lee County, FL is.  The actual "urban" core anchoring the metro is laughably small, and development radiating out from it gets very White and very low-density pretty quickly.