Rate Pennsylvania-01

[funjack73]

I think Fitzpatrick has the advantage here, but I do see some upset potential as well.

[Roll Roons]

Lean R, but closer to Likely than Tossup. Fitzpatrick has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and still has goodwill from his late brother. Even though he faced a weak opponent, he still hung on in 2018 even as Wolf and Casey romped in the district and the GOP was getting thrashed in the Philly suburbs. His opponents this year are unknown.

My galaxy brain theory is that Democrats know Congress would be a better place with more Republicans like Fitzpatrick, and they're mostly leaving him alone since they already have a comfortable majority in the House.

[Xing]

Tilt R for now. Fitzpatrick isn’t a bad candidate, but he’s been quite lucky with his opponents.

[Farmlands]

My galaxy brain theory is that Democrats know Congress would be a better place with more Republicans like Fitzpatrick, and they're mostly leaving him alone since they already have a comfortable majority in the House.

I'm glad there are still non-lunatic Republicans representatives out there, but I still want a Democrat on that seat, and so should the party, because building a bench is useful and GOP policies are awful. And in this case, it's not even a true maverick, but practically a party rubber-stamp.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R for now. Fitzpatrick isn’t a bad candidate, but he’s been quite lucky with his opponents.

And he seems to have gotten lucky yet again this year. Likely R.

[Pericles]

My galaxy brain theory is that Democrats know Congress would be a better place with more Republicans like Fitzpatrick, and they're mostly leaving him alone since they already have a comfortable majority in the House.

I'm glad there are still non-lunatic Republicans representatives out there, but I still want a Democrat on that seat, and so should the party, because building a bench is useful and GOP policies are awful. And in this case, it's not even a true maverick, but practically a party rubber-stamp.

Plus in say the 2022 midterms, if Democrats lose the House very narrowly they could have held that seat with a new incumbent, but would have no chance of unseating a Republican incumbent like Fitzpatrick in an unfavorable environment.

[Roll Roons]

My galaxy brain theory is that Democrats know Congress would be a better place with more Republicans like Fitzpatrick, and they're mostly leaving him alone since they already have a comfortable majority in the House.

I'm glad there are still non-lunatic Republicans representatives out there, but I still want a Democrat on that seat, and so should the party, because building a bench is useful and GOP policies are awful. And in this case, it's not even a true maverick, but practically a party rubber-stamp.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/brian-fitzpatrick/. This Congress, he's voted in line with Trump 38% of the time.

[😥]

Likely R. PA-10 is far more likely to flip

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see what happens after Tuesday, once the official competitor is picked for the Ds. If that person can somehow pick up the speed with fundraising, it definitely has a chance. PA-01 will likely go to Biden by pretty large margins, so it's still possible to drag the D over the finish line if people are even more fed up with Rs.

Fitz mostly won in 2018 bc Scott was not a good candidate for the district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R

[zoz]

Strong Lean R

[progressive85]

Tilt R.  He's definitely a moderate in a Congress with few of them left so he's a FF.  Enough Biden-Fitzpatrick voters I think in PA-1.

[PAK Man]

Lean/Likely R. Democrats for some reason have had major recruitment problems in this district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- lean D
As long as the nominee isn't a supporter of BDS or Code pink like the last guy, I say we win.
I think Biden will win Bucks by high single digits

[Gracile]

Lean R. Fitzpatrick has gotten lucky by pulling lackluster opponents and that he has maintained his whole moderate hero, sensible Republican persona or whatever in a district that would otherwise be unfavorable for the GOP today. That said, I can't shake the feeling that this could end up being a sleeper flip - especially if Biden ends up winning this district convincingly (which he very well could).

[wbrocks67]

Lean R. Fitzpatrick has gotten lucky by pulling lackluster opponents and that he has maintained his whole moderate hero, sensible Republican persona or whatever in a district that would otherwise be unfavorable for the GOP today. That said, I can't shake the feeling that this could end up being a sleeper flip - especially if Biden ends up winning this district convincingly (which he very well could).

This. Although 2018 wasn't too horrible for Fitz, I can't help but feeling if the environment is SUPER D this fall (which it very well could be), that Fitz could be the next Susan Collins and independents and some democrats could ultimately decide they're done with him.

The question is whether the D nominee can raise a good amount of $ and put up a good fight here. People forget that even in 2019's local elections, Ds did VERY well in Bucks.

[S019]

Lean R, but if Biden wins Bucks by enough (8-9), the headwinds could be too strong for Fitzpatrick to survive.