Which senate seat is the gop more likely to win?

[MT Treasurer]

MI could at least be won if the presidential race is close and James starts running a better campaign (currently unlikely, but by no means impossible). Also don’t buy MI voting way more Democratic than WI/PA or to the left of the popular vote.

AZ would require a massive red wave (not happening). It’s gone, and Republicans should triage it to focus on races which are actually winnable in this environment. They could always try again in AZ in 2022, but MI/MT/etc. are six-year terms.