IN (Victoria Research) - Trump +10

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Trump - 49
Biden - 39

894 RV, May 22-23, +/-3.3%
https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/tallian-best-positioned-democrat-to-win-indiana-attorney-general-race-poll-finds/article_3208e96e-5678-584c-a81d-720ab4a22149.html

[Podgy the Bear]

Looks like the Midwest is moving back to Obama 2012 levels.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like the Midwest is moving back to Obama 2012 levels.

Yep, pretty uniformly across multiple polls too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not bad.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

To note that RCP average for 2016 was roughly 10 points for Trump in Indiana, so this looks decent for the president.

[SN2903]

To note that RCP average for 2016 was roughly 10 points for Trump in Indiana, so this looks decent for the president.

Yep. I still think he ends up winning by 20 in Indiana.

[Epaminondas]

Looks like the Midwest is moving back to Obama 2012 levels.

That's a stretch. Obama garnered 44% of the vote in 2012.
Here Biden is at 39, more in like with Cinton's 37.5

Indiana has lapsed for good.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Looks like the Midwest is moving back to Obama 2012 levels.

That's a stretch. Obama garnered 44% of the vote in 2012.
Here Biden is at 39, more in like with Cinton's 37.5

Indiana has lapsed for good.

That assumes undecided voters break near-unanimously for Trump. Conventional wisdom on undecided voters in US federal elections is that they usually break against the incumbent. Obviously that varies from state to state, but even in a Trumpy place like Indiana I don't think there's any reason to assume Biden's figure in a poll with more than 10% undecided represents his ceiling.

My guess is if the election were held tomorrow Biden would get about 42% in Indiana.

[Epaminondas]

In 2016, polls of red states were actually very good at determining the Dem share, they just missed Trump's share by 1-7 points every time.

The RCP average was within a point of the final Dem share in the following states: Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Kansas.

Right now Biden's at 39 in Indiana, I wouldn't expect many low-propensity voters will suddenly come out for him - the only way he could outperform by 3.

[wbrocks67]

If Biden is up 7-8 nationally, makes sense we're seeing closer to Trump +10 than Trump +20.

People also need to stop acting like some state polls are gong to be off the same amount they were in 2016.

[Podgy the Bear]

Looks like the Midwest is moving back to Obama 2012 levels.

That's a stretch. Obama garnered 44% of the vote in 2012.
Here Biden is at 39, more in like with Cinton's 37.5

Indiana has lapsed for good.

Add the 4 point deficit in Missouri from another poll--these are numbers you can't ignore.  And the Trumpistas conveniently forget that their man is the incumbent this time.  We are not in 2016--we are in a completely different world now.

It becomes apparent that Biden is a much better fit in this part of the country.  Not that he's going to win Indiana or Missouri.  But you can infer that he will run very well in the states that matter here--Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like the Midwest is moving back to Obama 2012 levels.

Yep, pretty uniformly across multiple polls too.

Yes. Except for Wisconsin of course which is averaging at Biden +3. And Iowa where Trump is leading. Those two states are super outliers though.

[Pollster]

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but here's yet another poll of a safe R state showing a massive underperformance for Trump. Yet another reason why the national polls look the way they do.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but here's yet another poll of a safe R state showing a massive underperformance for Trump. Yet another reason why the national polls look the way they do.

If so, that's hopefully good news for the Midwestern states that actually matter, like the Big Three, Minnesota, and even Ohio and Iowa.

[wbrocks67]

A republican internall poll (BK Strategies) only has Trump's favorables at 49/48 in Indiana:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200529_IN.pdf

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but here's yet another poll of a safe R state showing a massive underperformance for Trump. Yet another reason why the national polls look the way they do.

The national polls are averaging at Biden +5-6 right now, 3-4 points more Democratic than the actual 2016 result. These polls in red states are showing either double digit or close to double digit movement for Democrats. That would suggest large Democratic trends in some of the reddest states. Or, this is corresponding to a pattern of Indiana polling we've seen in the last few years.

Here's a list of polling averages and corresponding results for Indiana

2016 Governor: Gregg +3: Actual Result: Holcomb +6
2016 Senate: Young +1, Actual Result: Young +10
2016 President: Trump +11, Actual Result: Trump +19
2018 Senate: Donnelly +1, Actual Result: Braun +6

[Pollster]

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but here's yet another poll of a safe R state showing a massive underperformance for Trump. Yet another reason why the national polls look the way they do.

The national polls are averaging at Biden +5-6 right now, 3-4 points more Democratic than the actual 2016 result. These polls in red states are showing either double digit or close to double digit movement for Democrats. That would suggest large Democratic trends in some of the reddest states. Or, this is corresponding to a pattern of Indiana polling we've seen in the last few years.

Here's a list of polling averages and corresponding results for Indiana

2016 Governor: Gregg +3: Actual Result: Holcomb +6
2016 Senate: Young +1, Actual Result: Young +10
2016 President: Trump +11, Actual Result: Trump +19
2018 Senate: Donnelly +1, Actual Result: Braun +6

Indiana is 3-4x more expensive to poll due to local restrictions on the practice (the Dakotas have the same restrictions but are significantly smaller and more demographically homogenous). Very few make it into the public eye, and those that do often come with the agenda of the person releasing it. You're working with the averages of a small number of polls here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The polling is off this year considering Biden has a higher RCP average in Ohio than he does in WI or FL.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but here's yet another poll of a safe R state showing a massive underperformance for Trump. Yet another reason why the national polls look the way they do.

The national polls are averaging at Biden +5-6 right now, 3-4 points more Democratic than the actual 2016 result. These polls in red states are showing either double digit or close to double digit movement for Democrats. That would suggest large Democratic trends in some of the reddest states. Or, this is corresponding to a pattern of Indiana polling we've seen in the last few years.

Here's a list of polling averages and corresponding results for Indiana

2016 Governor: Gregg +3: Actual Result: Holcomb +6
2016 Senate: Young +1, Actual Result: Young +10
2016 President: Trump +11, Actual Result: Trump +19
2018 Senate: Donnelly +1, Actual Result: Braun +6

Indiana is 3-4x more expensive to poll due to local restrictions on the practice (the Dakotas have the same restrictions but are significantly smaller and more demographically homogenous). Very few make it into the public eye, and those that do often come with the agenda of the person releasing it. You're working with the averages of a small number of polls here.

Yes, that tends to happen with less competitive states (and the restrictions Indiana has, as you said). But you believe that red states are underperforming for Trump based on what? One poll each from a couple of states that have systematically underestimated Republican margins in polling since 2016?

This fact is amazing: Not a single poll, NOT ONE, has overestimated a Republican margin in Indiana in 2016-2018. All of them have underestimated Rs.

[libertpaulian]

The AG's race is one to look out for.

[pbrower2a]

Since the 1920's no Republican nominee has won the Electoral College without winning Indiana by double digits.  That is likely to hold this year. In a good year for an incumbent Republican, his support should be above 50 by now. 49 is close, but you can see how that applies to... Ohio, let alone Michigan.   

[Red Willow]

The polling is off this year considering Biden has a higher RCP average in Ohio than he does in WI or FL.

There have been way less OH polls than WI/FL polls though.

[Pollster]

But you believe that red states are underperforming for Trump based on what? One poll each from a couple of states that have systematically underestimated Republican margins in polling since 2016?

Over the past few weeks, we've gotten decent-to-high quality polling of states like MO, TN, MT, KY, and now IN showing Trump losing substantial support from his 2016 run. We've also gotten polls of safe blue states, as well, showing the same thing. At the same time, we've gotten even more polls of battleground states like NC, AZ, FL, WI, and even GA showing tight races that would not traditionally be in line with a Biden lead of 5-8 points as most polls are showing.

It's entirely possible that all of these polls are underestimating Republican turnout or (traditionally more likely) overestimating Democratic turnout. But right now there's a pretty clear pattern emerging.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

A Trump +10 win in Indiana would definitely be in-line with a Biden +8 environment.

[SN2903]

A Trump +10 win in Indiana would definitely be in-line with a Biden +8 environment.

I think you have to look at the averages it's a Biden +4 to +5 race when you look at the polls which means the EC would be very tight. The race is either Tilt D or Toss Up right now if you believe the polls but I don't which is why I have it tilt R.