Why Trump will win 2020 Election: A hot take by a Canadian

[harpercanuck]

So let me start off with the obvious statement. I'm a conservative from BC (proud northwesterner) screw parts of eastern canada(but thats a whole another topic) and my ideology is in line with PM stephen harper. Tax cuts, Tough on crime(well atleast from a cdn pov, america may take this a bit too far sometimes), pro growth energy policy. So i don't actually support the Trump republican views on many issues but agree with others With that said here is why trump will win the 2020 election.

1. First of all is the appearance. Biden looks frail and tired. I'm actually a big fan of joe biden and in 2012 loved how he crushed Paul ryan but lets be honest that biden is long gone. Despite trumps morbid obesity he looks like a tough mean guy which is what the president of the united states is supposed to look like. As for those who think this point doesn't matter look at history, kennedy looked the part against sweaty nixon, nixon was mean against weak humphrey/mcgovern, Reagan was called Rambo for a reason, Bush beat gore, Clinton beat hw. So appearances do matter

2. China: Doesn't matter what us coastal elites think, the heartland of america, the industrial states plus flyover country deeply are angry with what china has done. Biden is weak on china whereas trump is the only potus to ever be critical and anti china from day 1

3. Wokeness: the far left took joe and made him agree to things that are way out of the mainstream. Decriminalize all illegal entries and ban deportations? Only a women can be VP. now if he were smart and picked amy or imo tammy duckworth he would be smart. instead the woke crew will force him to take abrams or warren both of whom will go way aboard and the avg american will not vote for that ticket.

4. Media: Fareed zakaria of cnn said it best the people don't trust public institutions because all of them cater to liberal elites. Any time a conservative gets anywhere cancel culture takes its course. Academia, media, hollywood, sports(other than hockey which is largely apolitical). The american people simply will not vote for the media liberals of new york and the beltway. Now i love the beltway of america and love the coasts but the media elites of this place are pure trash.

5. The swing states. To be president you gotta win a handful of swing states. There is not a single issue the democrats have decided to move more conservative on to appeal to this industrial heartland. Texas is not going blue, Georgia won't be close either. Arizona will be close and Biden will compete hard in wisconsin michigan and PA. Now i can't say who will win those states but ohio has trended red and so did florida i mean desantis won and rick scott won in blue wave years. Even if biden wins michigan and PA, the dark horse is minnesota. I think minnesota will go republican red as its trending in that direction. Even PA i can see trump winning this as some of the gun nut types and pro life voters will rally based on some of the extreme grabs made by dem governors. This applies in Va too but at this moment i still see biden winning VA. Now those are the conventional takes. The real shocker will be the democrat states reluctance to open up. If trump had the brains he'd go into california chicago and some of these big blue states and say look these guys wanna keep you locked down longer, republicans won't. Now i understand the risks members of my own family work in healthcare sector. However this indefinite lockdown as the LA mayor wants to do could result in a huge political transformation. It will be interesting to see what happens there. Of course biden will still win those states but it'd be interesting to see if its closer.

6. Incumbency: The incumbent most definitely always wins. The only time in recent history an incumbent lost was 92 and 80. Now its true the economy in the tubes helps joe biden. However, you also need someone with dynamic plans that americans en masse can get around. The amount of polarization along with the fact that bush beat kerry and obama beat romney, I believe the incumbency will power trump to victory in 2020.

That's my hot take. I just got on this forum don't really use this. Been more on twitter. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the 2020 election or any points I made. Also i don't actually hate eastern canada but trudeau and his cronies are pure pieces...... well you can finish the sentence. I don't wanna get banned on my very first thread. Anyways cheers from Van city!

[funjack73]

I agree with these points, but Biden is still the clear favorite.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Welcome to the forum both of you

[harpercanuck]

Thank you Arizona Iced Tea for the welcome. I love both of those things. I wanna visit AZ one day and just drive that beautiful stretch of highway near sedona and route 66. Not to mention great for golf and baseball. Of course Iced teas are awesome especially long island iced teas

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Most points are fair, but:

1) Incumbents have only won so much in recent years because most have over 50% approval. The logic here is very obvious: if you approve of the incumbent, you would rather vote for them again than take risk; if you disapprove, there’s a good chance the replacement will be better. Incumbents were far less successful in older times, and got voted out accordingly. We don’t have a big enough sample size to definitively say that incumbency is an advantage in a presidential election.

2) While Biden is more left-wing on economic issues, he comes across as more moderate on social policy in his rhetoric. In addition, he has adopted the GOP stance on being aggressive against China.

3) It’s possible that Biden may seem frail, but if anything, I’d be more afraid of Biden seeming too angry, and thus losing his appeal as the calm course correction. Biden seemed very energetic in his debate against Bernie, as he did when on the Breakfast a Club. Some of his recent appears such as his Colbert appearance (50 minutes long) went really well too.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Welcome to the forum, harpercanuck!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Welcome to the forum, harpercanuck!

he is a fellow Gujarati Republican

[catographer]

I think you make a detailed argument against voting for Biden, and I think there’s some truth in your points. But you make a huge mistake when you keep saying “the American people” in reference to the right. Trump does not represent most Americans, Democrats haven’t lost the popular vote since 2004. It is clear that Biden’s vision for America is currently more popular than Trump’s.

[harpercanuck]

Welcome to the forum, harpercanuck!

he is a fellow Gujarati Republican

Always cool meeting fellow gujaratis. Especially when you're from Vancouver and like 99% of all indians here are punjabi.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think you make a detailed argument against voting for Biden, and I think there’s some truth in your points. But you make a huge mistake when you keep saying “the American people” in reference to the right. Trump does not represent most Americans, Democrats haven’t lost the popular vote since 2004. It is clear that Biden’s vision for America is currently more popular than Trump’s.

The popular vote doesnt determine who wins elections though

[harpercanuck]

I think you make a detailed argument against voting for Biden, and I think there’s some truth in your points. But you make a huge mistake when you keep saying “the American people” in reference to the right. Trump does not represent most Americans, Democrats haven’t lost the popular vote since 2004. It is clear that Biden’s vision for America is currently more popular than Trump’s.

Thanks for your reply. I agree with you. Trump isnt an ideal conservative or what i'd want as the standard bearer for the conservative movement in the US. You're right about saying the american people point you said. But thats just how the system is. In canada right now, Justin trudeau lost the popular vote only won about 31% of the popular vote and has used COVID to suspend the parliament for the rest of the summer, so no I don't think Canada has a democracy. Good to see in america congress still functioning(something which normally does literally nothing). While dems haven't lost the pop vote since 04. thats misleading as 2010 onwards the gop has won all branches of congress in 2014 and all 3 in 2016 and retained seante in 2018. I believe in issues. I know i'll probably piss off a lot of conservatives but i'm actually a huge fan of Bill clinton and the dems of the 90s for working with newt and kasich to get things done. Nov 2020 will be interesting for sure

[MABA 2020]

You make some good points and some bad points but let me just single out one.

The idea that Trump is tough on China and Biden is weak is for the birds. Trump was literally praising President Xi on a job well done at the beginning of this crisis (that was during the denial phase, long before the shift the blame phase) unless Bidens campaign is completely incompetent they sure be able to hit back on any ridiculous claims that Biden is weak on China. Maybe mention Ivanka and those trademarks, remember that Trump and his cronies couldn't care less about Hong Kong last year but now it serves his political interests to make China the enemy... you get the idea.

Welcome to the forum tho

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I can’t say I’ve noticed Harpercanuck until now, but it’s safe to say that I’m a fan now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LOL I read your name as Harpercuck at first!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I think you make a detailed argument against voting for Biden, and I think there’s some truth in your points. But you make a huge mistake when you keep saying “the American people” in reference to the right. Trump does not represent most Americans, Democrats haven’t lost the popular vote since 2004. It is clear that Biden’s vision for America is currently more popular than Trump’s.

The popular vote doesnt determine who wins elections though

2016 House, 2014 House, and 2010 House all count, though not what you mean of course.

[harpercanuck]

LOL I read your name as Harpercuck at first!

OOF! I'm sure many leftwing canadians agree with that assessment if you apply it to stephen harper and I'm sure i'll eventually have haters on here who'll use that moniker.

Also great seeing a blue dog democrat. We need more of you. Get off of here and go run for congress!!

[harpercanuck]

I can’t say I’ve noticed Harpercanuck until now, but it’s safe to say that I’m a fan now.

New to this forum. The old school republican guy got me into this. Glad you're a fan. You've certainly got great taste! Also scarborough joe is alright but the name ahaha!

[Bomster]

About appearances, Biden’a age would be a major liability for him... if his opponent also wasn’t as old. In many of his briefings and announcements as President Trump has always looked tired to me, almost like he hates his job. He either looked tired or was rambling on and on about whatever crossed his mind. Biden on the other hand, he’s old too, but he speaks more eloquently than Trump ever has.

[Xing]

These are fair points, but I’d say they’re more reasons why Trump could win, rather than reasons that he will. People who claim that the left is too “woke” would probably think so even if Biden made a concerted effort to come across as the contrary, and already have been voting Republican for a while. While there definitely is resentment of China, and that could be something that Trump brings up, I’m not sure that this will win over new voters for him. True, he can narrowly win by holding on to nearly all of his 2016 support, but that’s a very narrow path for him, and he’d need many things to break his way to make it work.

[T'Chenka]

First of all, let's get this out of the way:

Secondly, namaskar, and I'm going to take your negative feelings about eastern Canada as jealousy, which is very flattering. Thank you.

Thirdly, I really hope you're wrong about Trump, but your argument doesn't seem to have any giant flaws in it anywhere.

[SN2903]

I think you make a detailed argument against voting for Biden, and I think there’s some truth in your points. But you make a huge mistake when you keep saying “the American people” in reference to the right. Trump does not represent most Americans, Democrats haven’t lost the popular vote since 2004. It is clear that Biden’s vision for America is currently more popular than Trump’s.

Remains to be seen. It is def more popular on the coasts in the Heartland I do not think it is.

[SN2903]

Welcome to the forum! You made a lot of very good points: many of which I argue consistently especially about appearance mattering and Biden seeming old. It is def a lot more of an issue than most on this forum want to admit. Nixon was far more qualified than Kennedy in every aspect in 1960 and in most respects Nixon was a better President but he wasn't that well liked by many and was way too paranoid. He was similar to Trump in the sense that Trump has accomplished a lot but people can't seem to get around his persona (a sizable number of people).


To respond to an earlier poster it is optics. I def agree that Trump is less tough on China than he says he is because he wants to maintain a good relationship but the optics are that Trump is very tough on China especially with tariffs.

It is definitely true that Biden is vulnerable on the China issue having voted for NAFTA and also changed his position on the Chinese travel ban.

[SN2903]

About appearances, Biden’a age would be a major liability for him... if his opponent also wasn’t as old. In many of his briefings and announcements as President Trump has always looked tired to me, almost like he hates his job. He either looked tired or was rambling on and on about whatever crossed his mind. Biden on the other hand, he’s old too, but he speaks more eloquently than Trump ever has.

Optics though. Trump comes across very energetic and he honestly doesn't come across as 74 years old more mid 60s maybe late 60s.

[Bomster]

About appearances, Biden’a age would be a major liability for him... if his opponent also wasn’t as old. In many of his briefings and announcements as President Trump has always looked tired to me, almost like he hates his job. He either looked tired or was rambling on and on about whatever crossed his mind. Biden on the other hand, he’s old too, but he speaks more eloquently than Trump ever has.

Optics though. Trump comes across very energetic and he honestly doesn't come across as 74 years old more mid 60s maybe late 60s.

At rallies he does, but there’s no more of that anymore.

[SN2903]

About appearances, Biden’a age would be a major liability for him... if his opponent also wasn’t as old. In many of his briefings and announcements as President Trump has always looked tired to me, almost like he hates his job. He either looked tired or was rambling on and on about whatever crossed his mind. Biden on the other hand, he’s old too, but he speaks more eloquently than Trump ever has.

Optics though. Trump comes across very energetic and he honestly doesn't come across as 74 years old more mid 60s maybe late 60s.

At rallies he does, but there’s no more of that anymore.

There will be soon.