Describe an Obama 2012/Hillary 2016/Trump 2020 voter

[Higgins]

Along the lines of the other threads that say in essence "describe a x this year voter, y that year voter."

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Would-be Obama-Trump voters who didn't make the jump the first time around because they took some of his more outlandish racist pronouncements seriously. Presumably, some fans of the STEP act are amongst this group, though I doubt they make up a significant number of HRC-Trump voters.

[Ferguson97]

Tara Reade

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I can only assume these are people who simply do not follow politics or the news at all.

[Crumpets]

Some possibilities:

Edgy young voter who was a normal Democrat through 2016 but in the age of Trump has started watching TYT, reading Glenn Greenwald and Michael Tracey, and probably supported Gabbard or maybe Yang in the primary. Says things like "at least Trump recognizes we can't do business as usual anymore."

Wealthy Illinois business owner who generally voted R until Obama in 2008 and 2012 for his economics, feared Trump in 2016 and didn't like his racism, but now sees Trump as more of a generic R.

The last of the 2004 national security moms who liked Obama for killing bin Laden, liked Hillary for killing Gaddhafi, and now likes Trump for killing Baghdadi.

[ucscgaldamez1]

voter who was personally affected during the pandemic/shutdown who voted for Clinton in 2016 and is deeply upset about the closures and sees Trump as pushing to open the economy/align with their views to move along

[Grassroots]

Would-be Obama-Trump voters who didn't make the jump the first time around because they took some of his more outlandish racist pronouncements seriously. Presumably, some fans of the STEP act are amongst this group, though I doubt they make up a significant number of HRC-Trump voters.

This.

[libertpaulian]

I could see some African-American, Latino, and Asian men with moderate views fall into this category. 

Brian Kemp got 11% with Black men after all.

[woodley park]

I imagine this voter would have to be someone pro-pandemic and pro-Great Depression.

[Real Texan Politics]

The "walk away" campaign people could fall into this category, like Brandon Straka.

[Yellowhammer]

There will be lots of them, even if Biden wins comfortably.

[Dr. MB]

definitely some people in the R trending counties in the midwest or so, there's still room to fall in plenty of places

[President Johnson]

Jeff Van Drew

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jeff Van Drew

Jeff Van Drew might well vote Biden. His primary reason for switching party preference was a dispute with staffers and his political future depends on Republican recovery in NJ.

[Gracile]

The last of the 2004 national security moms who liked Obama for killing bin Laden, liked Hillary for killing Gaddhafi, and now likes Trump for killing Baghdadi.

Yes, these people are a crucial part of the Clinton/Trump voting bloc. You can find them at any suburban Olive Garden munching on breadsticks and pasta.

[Agonized-Statism]

Possibly more WWC.

[SaneDemocrat]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

[clever but short]

Tara Reade

Don't insult my intelligence.

[Flyersfan232]

Blue coller union voter who was skeptical of trump in 2016.

[Panda Express]

A person who used to be normal but after years of sexual frustration, has become an incel. We all know those people.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

[SaneDemocrat]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

But she did better with WHite Voters in ARK than AL,MS,LA, rural GA. WHy?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

But she did better with WHite Voters in ARK than AL,MS,LA, rural GA. WHy?

Because in the Deep South non-Hispanic White voters are extremely Republican in a way that they aren't in the Upland South - which likely has something to do with the higher proportion of Black people in the Deep South states. I don't think Hillary Clinton in 2016 had any special appeal in Arkansas: she lost non-Hispanic White voters there by roughly the same margin as in Tennessee or Oklahoma.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

But she did better with WHite Voters in ARK than AL,MS,LA, rural GA. WHy?

Because in the Deep South non-Hispanic White voters are extremely Republican in a way that they aren't in the Upland South - which likely has something to do with the higher proportion of Black people in the Deep South states. I don't think Hillary Clinton in 2016 had any special appeal in Arkansas: she lost non-Hispanic White voters there by roughly the same margin as in Tennessee or Oklahoma.

Source: https://www.whitdem.org/2016WhiteVote.html

(obviously it is an estimate and certainly there are other studies on this, but that squares with the fact, for example, that AR and TN have extremely similar racial demographics and the 2016 results were very similar between the two states)