KS-SEN (NRSC Internal): Kobach +1, Marshall +11
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  KS-SEN (NRSC Internal): Kobach +1, Marshall +11
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Author Topic: KS-SEN (NRSC Internal): Kobach +1, Marshall +11  (Read 832 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: May 28, 2020, 12:00:35 PM »

Kobach 44
Bollier 43

Marshall 46
Bollier 35

Seems odd to me that Marshall only gains 2% on Kobach's #s, but with Marshall involved, suddenly Bollier loses *8%* of her total. We go from 87% decided to somehow, less decided (81%) in a Marshall-Bollier race?

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266024708379680769
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2020, 12:04:43 PM »

Marshall is favored if he wins the primary, but yeah this won't magically become Safe R. Likely R, closer to Lean than Safe with Marshall, Tossup with Kobach. Interested to see how the Unbeatable Titan Roger Marshall crowd will respond to this poll.
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2020, 12:08:53 PM »

Seems odd to me that Marshall only gains 2% on Kobach's #s, but with Marshall involved, suddenly Bollier loses *8%* of her total. We go from 87% decided to somehow, less decided (81%) in a Marshall-Bollier race?

Hard to speculate without a full data set, but I would suspect one of two things:

1) We're seeing a post-messaging ballot on the Marshall/Bollier race
2) There's a relatively big group of voters who know they will vote for Bollier against Kobach, but are undecided in a Bollier vs. Marshall race

1 is more likely than 2.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2020, 12:58:58 PM »

In terms of actual impact on the outcome of the race + Senate control, I’d argue that Bollier and Bullock have been the Democrats' best recruits this cycle. Quite fitting that they’re also two of the most underestimated candidates (especially but not exclusively by Republicans).

This race isn’t Safe R even with Marshall, and taking races like MT/KS/AK for granted is the last thing the party should do if it wants to keep its Senate majority.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2020, 01:00:41 PM »

It's an internal poll
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2020, 11:53:08 PM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Other Source on 2020-05-19

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2020, 03:10:48 PM »

When did we start adding internal polls to the database?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2020, 03:20:13 PM »

deterrence. Has this anyways
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