Vermont Megathread

[GALeftist]

0% chance Scott wins a senate seat even in a Biden midterm. The McConnell/Trump brand is too toxic.

[GALeftist]

I know it's been done to death on this forum, but there's relatively recent precedent for this sort of race between a popular R governor and Generic D in the form of HI-Sen 2012. Linda Lingle was probably the most popular governor in the state's history, had tons of money, and was polling within striking distance of the Democrats in summer 2012 (i.e. not two full years out) and in the end she still lost by 25 points to Mazie Hirono, even though she had beaten Hirono in 2002 to become governor in the first place. I realize that Hawaii and Vermont are different in many ways, but they are similarly partisan and intractable on the national stage.

I guess what I'm saying is that a lot of times R governors can get away with great approvals in hyper D states (or vice versa) because Ds in those states have a lot less to lose. After all, Hawaii or Massachusetts or Vermont residents will never ever have to worry about losses on the state level on important issues like abortion, so R governors in those states have the built in crossover appeal of being forced into moderation along with near unanimous approval from Rs, who are just happy they're finally being represented. As soon as those governors head to D.C., though, they have to answer tough questions about those same hot button issues, which are suddenly relevant, and assuaging those concerns is a tall order when at the end of the day being elected as a Republican means you're beholden to Republican leadership. I could be wrong, I suppose, but my instinct is that Scott knows this and won't run, and if he does run I have a hard time seeing how he doesn't go the way of Lingle. After all, Scott would probably have to outperform Milne by at least 15 points in order to *maybe* eke out a victory.

[GALeftist]

Something that genuinely confuses me is how Scott is even still a Republican if these assessments are accurate. It seems like his values are pretty much in line with Democrats, if the Scottites are to be believed. Is it even certain that he would caucus with Republicans on the national stage? Would he win a Senate GOP primary if he wouldn't commit to doing so?

[GALeftist]

The state is only democratic because Patrick Leahy is propping up the entire democratic bench in the state, the rest of them are just flunkies or else like Howard Dean turned into annoying twitter people. The state remaining democrat is just a product of bad feelings from the bush administration regarding overt religiosity, once he's out of the office the state is destined to become titanium R like all Rural White areas are doomed to become.

Imagine if states just snapped back to where they were during the 50s for no reason lol. VT Titanium R AR Titanium D 2024

[GALeftist]

Leahy isn't really that moderate though, he endorsed Bernie in 2020.

[GALeftist]

Big brain move from VTGOP to oust their sole statewide officer. Has anyone in the LAGOP tried something similar with JBE lol

[GALeftist]

War in the VTGOP!

https://vtdigger.org/2021/02/02/a-wide-open-wound-capitol-riots-test-the-vermont-republican-party/


The VTGOP is at war with itself, Xander Landen of the VTDigger writes. There are essentially three factions. The Trumpists who are demanding a fully cult-ized state party, and who want Phil Scott out, the Philists who want Deb Billado out for not condemning the Trump insurrection and for being an all around Trump hack. Then there's the third camp of mushy moderates who want everyone to stay and calm down.

Local parties at at each others throat, Burlington GOP Chair, 19 year old Kolby LaMarche called for Billado's resignation. In response, at least three prominent Burlington GOP members want him out. Of course the Essex County GOP is the most aggressively pro-Trump, and has circulated the petition (now with 1,600 signatories) to get Phil out of the party. There are deep divisions within the VTGOP, between those primarily loyal to Phil, and those primarily loyal to Trump. And this fight has happened before.

https://vtdigger.org/2018/12/04/gop-committee-member-says-moderates-planning-revolt-leadership/

In 2018 the Philists attempted to seize power from Billado, but Trumpists successfully rallied by attacking Scott for opposing Kavanaugh and for making the party a "laughing stock at the national level" by moving it to the center.

We'll see who wins this time. If the Trumpist Right wins, it could have a major impact on Scott's 2022 calculations and political career.

I am just scratching my head at this whole thing. I mean, surely they realize they have no hope of power without Phil types, right? What is the endgame here?

[GALeftist]

Phil Scott is a RINO traitor
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1377605174320099335?ref_src=twsrc...

May I ask why you elected to bring up this shocking transgression from last April now?