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Left Wing
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« Reply #150 on: September 13, 2020, 09:28:53 PM »

https://vtdigger.org/2014/11/08/even-near-miracle-milne-remains-outsider/

Very old article (2014), but a good one on the dynamics of the Vermont GOP

Edit: Basically how Phil played some 4-D Chess on Milne to get his shot in 2016 at the expense of Milne in 2014. And now Milne is looking to play second fiddle to Scott. Everything spinning around.
Glad he did that. Milne is not even a quarter as based as Scott.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #151 on: September 14, 2020, 11:30:10 AM »

https://vtdigger.org/2014/11/08/even-near-miracle-milne-remains-outsider/

Very old article (2014), but a good one on the dynamics of the Vermont GOP

Edit: Basically how Phil played some 4-D Chess on Milne to get his shot in 2016 at the expense of Milne in 2014. And now Milne is looking to play second fiddle to Scott. Everything spinning around.
Glad he did that. Milne is not even a quarter as based as Scott.

True

The 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election is an almost Shakespearean drama. Shumlin was leading a garbage fire administration while Scott Milne was running this peak low energy campaign while Phil Scott was Joker-dancing his way to a landslide and GOP legislature gains. And when Milne almost won (and yes he would have won if the VT GOP and Phil put substantial effort), Phil didn't even say Milne would have been a good governor saying something like "you don't know until you're there."

I am of course okay with this because while Milne isn't all that bad, and Phil has been an awesome governor. But I might have even voted for Milne in 2014, Shumlin is a big HP.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #152 on: September 14, 2020, 11:33:13 AM »

https://vtdigger.org/2014/11/08/even-near-miracle-milne-remains-outsider/

Very old article (2014), but a good one on the dynamics of the Vermont GOP

Edit: Basically how Phil played some 4-D Chess on Milne to get his shot in 2016 at the expense of Milne in 2014. And now Milne is looking to play second fiddle to Scott. Everything spinning around.
Glad he did that. Milne is not even a quarter as based as Scott.

True

The 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election is an almost Shakespearean drama. Shumlin was leading a garbage fire administration while Scott Milne was running this peak low energy campaign while Phil Scott was Joker-dancing his way to a landslide and GOP legislature gains. And when Milne almost won (and yes he would have won if the VT GOP and Phil put substantial effort), Phil didn't even say Milne would have been a good governor saying something like "you don't know until you're there."

I am of course okay with this because while Milne isn't all that bad, and Phil has been an awesome governor. But I might have even voted for Milne in 2014, Shumlin is a big HP.
Milne is probably going to have trouble this year regaining a Charlie Baker-Phil Scott-Larry Hogan-like person he tried in 2014. When he ran against Leahy he swung to the right, likely because he knew he had no chance so he could say what he really believes.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #153 on: September 14, 2020, 11:35:53 AM »

https://vtdigger.org/2014/11/08/even-near-miracle-milne-remains-outsider/

Very old article (2014), but a good one on the dynamics of the Vermont GOP

Edit: Basically how Phil played some 4-D Chess on Milne to get his shot in 2016 at the expense of Milne in 2014. And now Milne is looking to play second fiddle to Scott. Everything spinning around.
Glad he did that. Milne is not even a quarter as based as Scott.

True

The 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election is an almost Shakespearean drama. Shumlin was leading a garbage fire administration while Scott Milne was running this peak low energy campaign while Phil Scott was Joker-dancing his way to a landslide and GOP legislature gains. And when Milne almost won (and yes he would have won if the VT GOP and Phil put substantial effort), Phil didn't even say Milne would have been a good governor saying something like "you don't know until you're there."

I am of course okay with this because while Milne isn't all that bad, and Phil has been an awesome governor. But I might have even voted for Milne in 2014, Shumlin is a big HP.
Milne is probably going to have trouble this year regaining a Charlie Baker-Phil Scott-Larry Hogan-like person he tried in 2014. When he ran against Leahy he swung to the right, likely because he knew he had no chance so he could say what he really believes.

True. Although he pivoted back to the center for his primary against Trumpist Libertarian Meg Hansen. I actually thought he'd lose because Hansen was winning the yard sign war with ease, but he won (albeit by less than Scott defeated Klar).
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #154 on: September 15, 2020, 11:17:33 AM »




Based department?

I have a report
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #155 on: September 21, 2020, 07:48:02 PM »

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2020/september/21/democratic-senator-debbie-ingram-endorses-scott-milne-lieutenant-governor

One of the Democrats Molly Gray swept aside endorses Milne

Is this just a sore loser, or is it indicative or bipartisan support for Milne?

Discuss Smiley
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #156 on: September 22, 2020, 08:13:14 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 08:33:02 AM by KaiserDave »

ALERT ALERT ALERT

ATTENTION VERMONT POLITICOS

We have a HIGHLY comprehensive Vermont poll!


http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

Governor
September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with February 4-10 poll

Scott (R) 55% (+3)
Zuckerman (D) 24% (-5)
Other/not sure/no opinion 16%
No one/not voting on this item 1%
Billado (I) 0%
Devot (I) 0%
Dickerson (I) 0%
Hoyt (I) 0%
Refused 0%
Whitney (I) 0%


Lt. Governor
Gray (D) 35%
Milne (R) 31%
Other/not sure/no opinion 24%
Ericson (Progressive) 4%
No one/not voting on this item 4%
Billado (I) 2%
Cordo ("Banish the F35s") 0%


Scott Approval
Approve: 68%
Disapprove: 17%
Not Sure: 15%
Refused: 0%
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #157 on: September 22, 2020, 08:17:43 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 08:35:51 AM by KaiserDave »

Takeways

-Governor's race is all but Safe R. Scott is not only running above 50%, but Zuckerman is BELOW 30%. That's atrocious for a Democrat and a sitting Lt. Governor. This race is pretty much over barring school openings being a publicized disaster, even then no less than Likely R.
-Phil Scott is a titan (but we knew)
-As Roll and I suspected, the Lt. Gov race IS a contest! Milne is only 4 behind Gray. However, I give Gray the edge. The number of undecideds is substantial (and they should probably break for her), and her name recognition being low may be her only issue. However, I expect this race to be in single digits. Lean D.
-Scott has a better approval than Leahy (who has a good one), Bernie (an ever better one), Welch (who has an okay one), and Trump (who has an abysmal one).
-Scott BEATING Leahy in a hypothetical senate matchup 41/38. Leahy unlikely to run (age 80)
-Most Vermonters OPTIMISTIC about their futures, believe people should STAY in Vermont
-22% polled want Vermont to consider secession lol

I have a feeling Scott might get Baker numbers in November.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #158 on: September 22, 2020, 10:38:09 AM »

If Phil is beating LEAHY then he definitely has a strong chance against anyone else. Nationalization of the race would hurt him and he would have to constantly bring up that he wouldn't vote with the Republican senators most of the time.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #159 on: September 22, 2020, 10:42:33 AM »

If Phil is beating LEAHY then he definitely has a strong chance against anyone else.]Nationalization of the race would hurt him and he would have to constantly bring up that he wouldn't vote with the Republican senators most of the time.

This is why he wouldn't actually beat Leahy and would still be an underdog (albeit with a realistic hope) against a generic D. here.

It's like the poll showing Charlie Baker beating Markey last year or LASEN with JBE - the fundamentals pretty clearly indicate Markey would not lose a general election in 2020 and Cassidy is unbeatable in a general election, but these local politicians can get higher approval ratings unless and until they enter the federal fray.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #160 on: September 22, 2020, 10:56:20 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 01:07:09 PM by KaiserDave »

If Phil is beating LEAHY then he definitely has a strong chance against anyone else. Nationalization of the race would hurt him and he would have to constantly bring up that he wouldn't vote with the Republican senators most of the time.

I think a lot would depend on the composition of the Senate. If Dems have a 52 seat majority he’d be better off than a 50-50 one.

Also, I don’t think we should discount what him beating Leahy means. Leahy is a Vermont giant and an icon who’s been in the Senate since the 70s. If Phil can beat him in a poll I think he can beat generic D.

Edit: Let me clarify that Scott would no way beat Leahy, but, if he can beat him in a poll, he could beat Generic D in an election.
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« Reply #161 on: September 22, 2020, 01:25:11 PM »

If Phil is beating LEAHY then he definitely has a strong chance against anyone else. Nationalization of the race would hurt him and he would have to constantly bring up that he wouldn't vote with the Republican senators most of the time.

I think a lot would depend on the composition of the Senate. If Dems have a 52 seat majority he’d be better off than a 50-50 one.

Also, I don’t think we should discount what him beating Leahy means. Leahy is a Vermont giant and an icon who’s been in the Senate since the 70s. If Phil can beat him in a poll I think he can beat generic D.

Edit: Let me clarify that Scott would no way beat Leahy, but, if he can beat him in a poll, he could beat Generic D in an election.

Chief imma be honest  Im not a fan of Scott at all but he handled covid better than any governor in the country and will likely be reelected by a lot but Zuckerman will definetly get better numbers than Gonzales in 2018 hes running a decent campaign and hes got Bernies endorsement but also Claiming Scott would beat Leahy cause he lead him by 4% with almost a third of the electorate undecided that third would break hard for Leahy when it would become clear what a republican seat in the senate would be Leahy or whatever d replaces him if he retires would win something like 55-45 against Scott theirs no way their voting for Scott in a federal race unless the D is Coakley levels of bad lol Scott wont run for Senate former governors hate being senators anyway and he knows his odds even in a biden midterm are only like 10-20%
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GALeftist
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« Reply #162 on: September 22, 2020, 01:37:57 PM »

0% chance Scott wins a senate seat even in a Biden midterm. The McConnell/Trump brand is too toxic.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #163 on: September 22, 2020, 01:44:15 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 01:53:31 PM by KaiserDave »

If Phil is beating LEAHY then he definitely has a strong chance against anyone else. Nationalization of the race would hurt him and he would have to constantly bring up that he wouldn't vote with the Republican senators most of the time.

I think a lot would depend on the composition of the Senate. If Dems have a 52 seat majority he’d be better off than a 50-50 one.

Also, I don’t think we should discount what him beating Leahy means. Leahy is a Vermont giant and an icon who’s been in the Senate since the 70s. If Phil can beat him in a poll I think he can beat generic D.

Edit: Let me clarify that Scott would no way beat Leahy, but, if he can beat him in a poll, he could beat Generic D in an election.

Chief imma be honest  Im not a fan of Scott at all but he handled covid better than any governor in the country and will likely be reelected by a lot but Zuckerman will definetly get better numbers than Gonzales in 2018 hes running a decent campaign and hes got Bernies endorsement but also Claiming Scott would beat Leahy cause he lead him by 4% with almost a third of the electorate undecided that third would break hard for Leahy when it would become clear what a republican seat in the senate would be Leahy or whatever d replaces him if he retires would win something like 55-45 against Scott theirs no way their voting for Scott in a federal race unless the D is Coakley levels of bad lol Scott wont run for Senate former governors hate being senators anyway and he knows his odds even in a biden midterm are only like 10-20%

Reread what I said, I expressly said he cannot beat Leahy. But could potentially beat Generic D.

As for Zuckerman overperforming Gonzales. Yeah he probably will. But if this poll is accurate...he's doing pretty awful no matter how decent his campaign is. He can't even get 30%. If this poll is accurate and undecideds split evenly it's 62 for Scott and 37% for Zuckerman which is very similar to MA GOV 2018 (67 Baker 33 Gonzales). Even if Zuckerman wins undecideds decisively, which I think is very unlikely it's 59 for Scott and 41 for Zuckerman. This race is over.

And Bernie's endorsement in gubernatorial elections has not been that effective. He endorsed Minter and Hallquist too. Didn't help them. Sanders/Scott voters Purple heart

Edit: I don't know if Scott will run for Senate, but he's definitely got legislative experience. He was a State Senator for over a decade, he's not a solely executive type.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #164 on: September 22, 2020, 01:45:18 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 02:07:52 PM by KaiserDave »

0% chance Scott wins a senate seat even in a Biden midterm. The McConnell/Trump brand is too toxic.

I think 0% is overstating it. Phil is currently the most popular politician in Vermont, more so than Leahy and Bernie. If he's facing, let's say Timothy Ashe for Leahy's seat in 2022 in a Biden midterm, and Phil runs even to the left of his gubernatorial campaigns, he could win.

And let me clarify than in a 50-50 Senate, I wouldn't vote for Phil unless he was running Independent, and even then maybe. Mitch McConnell can never be allowed to even breathe power ever again. Say Democrats over perform and get a 53/47 majority, then I may support him as a Republican.
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Figueira
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« Reply #165 on: September 22, 2020, 02:19:38 PM »

If Phil Scott is beating Leahy in a poll, then he can beat another Democrat in a poll. It does not mean he can beat a Democrat in an election. Vermont is not electing a Republican to the US Senate.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #166 on: September 22, 2020, 02:26:08 PM »

If Phil Scott is beating Leahy in a poll, then he can beat another Democrat in a poll. It does not mean he can beat a Democrat in an election. Vermont is not electing a Republican to the US Senate.

Vermont has only elected one Democrat to the US Senate.

Just some food for thought. This is no sure thing in any direction. Is Phil Scott an underdog? Of course. Could he win with some conditions. Yes he could.

Edit: Vermont's got a lot of really elastic areas. Stowe township in Lamoille county for instance will give Phil Scott and Bernie Sanders 60% of the vote at the same time.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #167 on: September 22, 2020, 02:44:02 PM »

I know it's been done to death on this forum, but there's relatively recent precedent for this sort of race between a popular R governor and Generic D in the form of HI-Sen 2012. Linda Lingle was probably the most popular governor in the state's history, had tons of money, and was polling within striking distance of the Democrats in summer 2012 (i.e. not two full years out) and in the end she still lost by 25 points to Mazie Hirono, even though she had beaten Hirono in 2002 to become governor in the first place. I realize that Hawaii and Vermont are different in many ways, but they are similarly partisan and intractable on the national stage.

I guess what I'm saying is that a lot of times R governors can get away with great approvals in hyper D states (or vice versa) because Ds in those states have a lot less to lose. After all, Hawaii or Massachusetts or Vermont residents will never ever have to worry about losses on the state level on important issues like abortion, so R governors in those states have the built in crossover appeal of being forced into moderation along with near unanimous approval from Rs, who are just happy they're finally being represented. As soon as those governors head to D.C., though, they have to answer tough questions about those same hot button issues, which are suddenly relevant, and assuaging those concerns is a tall order when at the end of the day being elected as a Republican means you're beholden to Republican leadership. I could be wrong, I suppose, but my instinct is that Scott knows this and won't run, and if he does run I have a hard time seeing how he doesn't go the way of Lingle. After all, Scott would probably have to outperform Milne by at least 15 points in order to *maybe* eke out a victory.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #168 on: September 22, 2020, 02:51:49 PM »

I know it's been done to death on this forum, but there's relatively recent precedent for this sort of race between a popular R governor and Generic D in the form of HI-Sen 2012. Linda Lingle was probably the most popular governor in the state's history, had tons of money, and was polling within striking distance of the Democrats in summer 2012 (i.e. not two full years out) and in the end she still lost by 25 points to Mazie Hirono, even though she had beaten Hirono in 2002 to become governor in the first place. I realize that Hawaii and Vermont are different in many ways, but they are similarly partisan and intractable on the national stage.

I guess what I'm saying is that a lot of times R governors can get away with great approvals in hyper D states (or vice versa) because Ds in those states have a lot less to lose. After all, Hawaii or Massachusetts or Vermont residents will never ever have to worry about losses on the state level on important issues like abortion, so R governors in those states have the built in crossover appeal of being forced into moderation along with near unanimous approval from Rs, who are just happy they're finally being represented. As soon as those governors head to D.C., though, they have to answer tough questions about those same hot button issues, which are suddenly relevant, and assuaging those concerns is a tall order when at the end of the day being elected as a Republican means you're beholden to Republican leadership. I could be wrong, I suppose, but my instinct is that Scott knows this and won't run, and if he does run I have a hard time seeing how he doesn't go the way of Lingle. After all, Scott would probably have to outperform Milne by at least 15 points in order to *maybe* eke out a victory.

So there's a lot here I agree with and a good deal I don't.

As for the Hawaii comparison its a fair point. But Vermont has been faithfully reelecting Republicans until 2006. Before Bernie is was Jeffords (R), before him Stafford (R), and before him Prouty (R) and before him many more Republicans.

Hawaii to my knowledge has never elected a Republican to the Senate, nor was it ever as reliably, or at all Republican as Vermont. Vermont has along running traditions of New England Republicans, in a way Hawaii hasn't.

As for the issue of hot button issues and national GOP leadership, I'll answer in two parts.

Firstly that Scott hasn't hesitated to comment on national topics. He said he supported the impeachment inquiry, then he said Trump should have been convicted and evoked Romney's reasoning, then he endorsed Bill Weld over Trump. He declared after Justice Ginsberg's tragic death that the winner of the election should appoint her successor, and he publicly opposed the GOP attempts to repeal Obamacare and signed a law restoring the individual mandate. On national issues he's no stranger to taking the right side.

As for reconciling the need to work under crooks and lackeys like McConnell, Cornyn, and Graham you make a good point. That I believe is a valid point, and the biggest argument against his success. But still, he could be elected. I'd be interested to see how far he would go in distancing himself from those fellows.
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« Reply #169 on: September 22, 2020, 03:30:31 PM »

Scott 2028 for president? Time for a moderate republican hero?
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Astatine
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« Reply #170 on: September 22, 2020, 03:33:37 PM »

I know it's been done to death on this forum, but there's relatively recent precedent for this sort of race between a popular R governor and Generic D in the form of HI-Sen 2012. Linda Lingle was probably the most popular governor in the state's history, had tons of money, and was polling within striking distance of the Democrats in summer 2012 (i.e. not two full years out) and in the end she still lost by 25 points to Mazie Hirono, even though she had beaten Hirono in 2002 to become governor in the first place. I realize that Hawaii and Vermont are different in many ways, but they are similarly partisan and intractable on the national stage.

I guess what I'm saying is that a lot of times R governors can get away with great approvals in hyper D states (or vice versa) because Ds in those states have a lot less to lose. After all, Hawaii or Massachusetts or Vermont residents will never ever have to worry about losses on the state level on important issues like abortion, so R governors in those states have the built in crossover appeal of being forced into moderation along with near unanimous approval from Rs, who are just happy they're finally being represented. As soon as those governors head to D.C., though, they have to answer tough questions about those same hot button issues, which are suddenly relevant, and assuaging those concerns is a tall order when at the end of the day being elected as a Republican means you're beholden to Republican leadership. I could be wrong, I suppose, but my instinct is that Scott knows this and won't run, and if he does run I have a hard time seeing how he doesn't go the way of Lingle. After all, Scott would probably have to outperform Milne by at least 15 points in order to *maybe* eke out a victory.
Linda Lingle had quite mediocre approval ratings at the end of her term in spite of her landslide victories. Her race was much more of an uphill battle than a hypothetical race for Scott would presumptively be.

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2010/10/25/hawaii-news/most-surveyed-voters-dislike-lingles-performance/
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #171 on: September 22, 2020, 03:35:53 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 03:40:18 PM by KaiserDave »

Scott 2028 for president? Time for a moderate republican hero?

Unless the GOP does a complete 180 from its ideological movement since 2008 (or arguably since 1980). No. Scott is strongly pro choice and has taken many moderate to liberal positions.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #172 on: September 22, 2020, 03:37:22 PM »

Scott 2028 for president? Time for a moderate republican hero?

If Hogan is doomed - and he almost certainly is - Scott isn't going to have a hope. This is like JBE for President in that both Scott and JBE know their presidential candidates would be dead in the water before they'd even exited the exploratory committee stage.
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Figueira
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« Reply #173 on: September 22, 2020, 07:32:56 PM »

If Phil Scott is beating Leahy in a poll, then he can beat another Democrat in a poll. It does not mean he can beat a Democrat in an election. Vermont is not electing a Republican to the US Senate.

Vermont has only elected one Democrat to the US Senate.

Oh come on. The last Republican to win a congressional election in Vermont was Jim Jeffords in 2000. This factoid is fun but it speaks more to the length of Patrick Leahy's career and the weirdness of Bernie Sanders than to anything profound.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #174 on: September 22, 2020, 09:13:59 PM »

If Phil Scott is beating Leahy in a poll, then he can beat another Democrat in a poll. It does not mean he can beat a Democrat in an election. Vermont is not electing a Republican to the US Senate.

Vermont has only elected one Democrat to the US Senate.

Oh come on. The last Republican to win a congressional election in Vermont was Jim Jeffords in 2000. This factoid is fun but it speaks more to the length of Patrick Leahy's career and the weirdness of Bernie Sanders than to anything profound.

Well, you coulda quoted the rest of my statement. There is very little evidence to say that a Scott-Not Leahy Candidate would be a Safe D matchup. Really? Where is this evidence? Leahy would beat Scott yes, I can believe that. But where is the evidence that Scott has no hope against anyone? It doesn't exist.
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