Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

So day 1

No Phil yardsigns, but that's to be expected given he isn't using yard signs yet, unfortunately.

One house I saw had a Trump and John Klar (main Phil challenger) sign. I may have booed from my car window.

I saw several signs for Emily Peyton on roadsides, who is a perennial candidate running in the GOP primary. She ran in Liberty Union in 2018 (a socialist party) so I will discount her.

Several signs for minor Democratic candidates, none for Zuckerman or Holcombe.

Sanders was in the Liberty Union Party before he decided that he wanted to be elected to something.

Yeah but LU to socialist Indy makes more sense than LU to GOP

[America Needs R'hllor]

So day 1

No Phil yardsigns, but that's to be expected given he isn't using yard signs yet, unfortunately.

One house I saw had a Trump and John Klar (main Phil challenger) sign. I may have booed from my car window.

I saw several signs for Emily Peyton on roadsides, who is a perennial candidate running in the GOP primary. She ran in Liberty Union in 2018 (a socialist party) so I will discount her.

Several signs for minor Democratic candidates, none for Zuckerman or Holcombe.

I love this

[KaiserDave]

Day 2 is in

Still no Scott signs, but again, he hasn't distributed them. Though I might have hoped to see some leftover from 2018.

Many signs for a certain Patrick Winburn, a Bennigton attorney running an outsider platform for the Democratic primary. He's apparently spent over 100k of his own cash on signs and ads. No signs for Zuckerman or Holcombe.

Some signs for Brenda Siegel and Molly Gray, both candidates for Lt. Governor in the Democratic Primary, but both of them are second tier compared to Timothy Ashe I think, although Siegel might have shot based on name recognition from 2018.

A few Trump signs, a few Biden signs. And of course many Bernie signs.

I am in Windham county, probably the most Democratic county in the state considering that it's the only one Phil lost in 2018. Unless Phil is really crushing it this year (entirely possible) Zuckerman or Holcombe should have no problem winning this county.

And I WILL be in Vermont on primary day by the way, any suggestions?

[Continential]

Do you support Tim Ashe for Lt. Governor or you support Miline?

[KaiserDave]

Do you support Tim Ashe for Lt. Governor or you support Miline?

Probably Ashe. Although Milne is fine and has stood for vote by mail while his right wing primary opponents have attacked him for it.

[Bidenworth2020]

Would you say there were more Trump or Biden signs?

[KaiserDave]

Would you say there were more Trump or Biden signs?

Trump signs, by a margin of one or two. Although that means nothing given it's Vermont, and it's the most Democratic county in the state, although it's possible that's only because of Brattleboro and I'm in a more conservative part of Windham county.

Although if you count the Bernie signs and bumper stickers Democrats have a big edge over Trump.

[Continential]

Why did Sanders get only 52%?

[KaiserDave]

Why did Sanders get only 52%?

What do you mean

Sanders got over 70% in Windham in 2018

[Bidenworth2020]

Why did Sanders get only 52%?

What do you mean

Sanders got over 70% in Windham in 2018

He means the primary in 2020.

[Roblox]

Why did Sanders get only 52%?

What do you mean

Sanders got over 70% in Windham in 2018

He means the primary in 2020.

I mean, the group Sanders dropped the most with from 2016 to 2020 was probably northern rural whites, which VT is full of.

[KaiserDave]

Why did Sanders get only 52%?

What do you mean

Sanders got over 70% in Windham in 2018

He means the primary in 2020.

I mean, the group Sanders dropped the most with from 2016 to 2020 was probably northern rural whites, which VT is full of.

^^^This

Plus it no longer being a Bernie vs Hillary binary. Vermont Dems had many more options to pick from.

[KaiserDave]

Day 3 is in

Saw a few Phil Scott signs today, which was lovely. Also saw my first Zuckerman signs. Still no signs of Holcombe activity (pun intended). Winburn is by far the most represented in yardsigns, but I doubt they will manifest in votes.

Saw a Timothy Ashe for Lt. Gov sign, and a variety of state legislature signs, one of which at this charming roadside farm with many different species of ducks.

Overall, I'm not sure what to make of all this. The lack of Holcombe signs is something, I've seen zero trace of her candidacy.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/can-anybody-defeat-governor-phil-scott/Content%3foid=30853195&media=AMP%2bHTML


Good article on the state of the race and the logic behind Scott’s campaign strategy


Also, a literal sex offender is running in the GOP primary

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/can-anybody-defeat-governor-phil-scott/Content%3foid=30853195&media=AMP%2bHTML


Good article on the state of the race and the logic behind Scott’s campaign strategy

It's a smart strategy in the present climate. It contrasts interestingly with Sununu's campaign in NH, which seems to be trying to run as conventionally as possible. Scott's sort of reminds me of a "don't change horses in the middle of the stream" approach, which I think will work well for him in this environment. Zuckerman's "we need a new roof" message just isn't connecting (though it's not totally wrong).
 

[KaiserDave]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/can-anybody-defeat-governor-phil-scott/Content%3foid=30853195&media=AMP%2bHTML


Good article on the state of the race and the logic behind Scott’s campaign strategy

It's a smart strategy in the present climate. It contrasts interestingly with Sununu's campaign in NH, which seems to be trying to run as conventionally as possible. Scott's sort of reminds me of a "don't change horses in the middle of the stream" approach, which I think will work well for him in this environment. Zuckerman's "we need a new roof" message just isn't connecting (though it's not totally wrong).
 

Sounds right

Holcombe really has had problems getting her campaign anywhere. Bless her for it but she’s too wonky I think for the general electorate especially when airtime is super hard to come by.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/meet-the-2020-primary-candidates-for-governor-of-vermont/Content?oid=30845825&media=AMP+HTML

This article is an absolute hoot

[One Term Floridian]

Why did Sanders get only 52%?

What do you mean

Sanders got over 70% in Windham in 2018

He means the primary in 2020.

I mean, the group Sanders dropped the most with from 2016 to 2020 was probably northern rural whites, which VT is full of.

^^^This

Plus it no longer being a Bernie vs Hillary binary. Vermont Dems had many more options to pick from.

Yeah. I’ve always maintained that Sanders’ overall 2016 numbers had nowhere to go but down this primary cycle, even in VT. A lot more options, plus less Hillary hate

[One Term Floridian]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/can-anybody-defeat-governor-phil-scott/Content%3foid=30853195&media=AMP%2bHTML


Good article on the state of the race and the logic behind Scott’s campaign strategy


Also, a literal sex offender is running in the GOP primary

One of these days I could see sex offenders as an officially recognized party bloc for the GOP. Dennis Hastert, Roy Moore, Eric Greitens, et al would be so proud!

But seriously the GOP risks being defined as the party of sexual predators if this continues to keep up.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/can-anybody-defeat-governor-phil-scott/Content%3foid=30853195&media=AMP%2bHTML


Good article on the state of the race and the logic behind Scott’s campaign strategy


Also, a literal sex offender is running in the GOP primary

One of these days I could see sex offenders as an officially recognized party bloc for the GOP. Dennis Hastert, Roy Moore, Eric Greitens, et al would be so proud!

But seriously the GOP risks being defined as the party of sexual predators if this continues to keep up.

It's also doesn't help that this new guy is running his whole campaign on anti-courts platform and that his conviction wasn't real.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/27/sanders-wades-into-dems-gov-primary-endorses-zuckerman/


Bernie endorses Zuckerman, I think he should have the primary in the bag

[President Johnson]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/27/sanders-wades-into-dems-gov-primary-endorses-zuckerman/


Bernie endorses Zuckerman, I think he should have the primary in the bag

Prediction: It won't matter in the general. Moderate hero Phil Scott will crush him. Go Phil! I see Zuckerman as future senator though.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/27/sanders-wades-into-dems-gov-primary-endorses-zuckerman/


Bernie endorses Zuckerman, I think he should have the primary in the bag

Prediction: It won't matter in the general. Moderate hero Phil Scott will crush him. Go Phil! I see Zuckerman as future senator though.

Agreed entirely

Bernie endorsed Hallquist and Minter, and I doubt Bernie will stump all that much for Zuckerman when there’s much bigger fish to fry.

And yes I see Zuckerman succeeding Bernie or Leahy. Having VPP member as a Senator would actually be kinda cool.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/29/vermont-conversation-holcombe-and-zuckerman-make-their-case-for-being-vermonts-next-governor/

Good article on the Holcombe vs. Zuckerman races

With 12 days until the primary I'd say Zuckerman wins the primary by around 15ish, but that prediction may change, especially on my scouting of northern Vermont, where I will be in 8 days time.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/28/david-zuckerman-pandemic-governor-vermont/

Apparently Zuckerman considered dropping out when COVID hit but opted to stay in