Vermont Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

As to Scott Milne, one thing that not a lot of people outside Upper New England understand about the 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races is that Shumlin was personally disliked in addition to his political liabilities. He was a womanizer who was involved in shady property disputes with his neighbors. He barely even got nominated in the first place in 2010 with less than 25% in a five-way primary.

[KaiserDave]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

[KaiserDave]

As to Scott Milne, one thing that not a lot of people outside Upper New England understand about the 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races is that Shumlin was personally disliked in addition to his political liabilities. He was a womanizer who was involved in shady property disputes with his neighbors. He barely even got nominated in the first place in 2010 with less than 25% in a five-way primary.

This is true, and his 2014 loss with a national red wave may speak more to Milne's weaknessnesses than his strength

[free my dawg]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular up until Trump got elected. Even as she ran away from him, the stigma was too much for her to overcome.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham and abandon her mentor's memory to keep being a loyal footsoldier.

[KaiserDave]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

[Brother Jonathan]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

[KaiserDave]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

[Brother Jonathan]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

She probably would be able to try post-Trump, but she would have problems right now. I do think she has potential in the future, but maybe with a cabinet post first in a more moderate GOP administration (as Attorney General, perhaps). I don't know what she would actually run for though, and I think she legitimately does not want to be a Collins figure so she probably will stay out of elected office while the party clashes with her views so much.

[Roll Roons]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

She probably would be able to try post-Trump, but she would have problems right now. I do think she has potential in the future, but maybe with a cabinet post first in a more moderate GOP administration (as Attorney General, perhaps). I don't know what she would actually run for though, and I think she legitimately does not want to be a Collins figure so she probably will stay out of elected office while the party clashes with her views so much.

Maybe she could run for Governor in 2022 if Sununu runs for Senate?

[Brother Jonathan]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

She probably would be able to try post-Trump, but she would have problems right now. I do think she has potential in the future, but maybe with a cabinet post first in a more moderate GOP administration (as Attorney General, perhaps). I don't know what she would actually run for though, and I think she legitimately does not want to be a Collins figure so she probably will stay out of elected office while the party clashes with her views so much.

Maybe she could run for Governor in 2022 if Sununu runs for Senate?

'

It's not out of the question, but I think Frank Edelblut (formerly one of my State Reps, actually) might have an inside track for Governor if Sununu runs for Senate in 2022 (or loses in 2020). He's not establishment, by any means, he is part of the right of the party but his tenure as Secretary of Education has sort of normalized him and given him clout in the party. I could see Ayotte running for Governor in 2022, but she would face a hard primary race first and wouldn't be able to count on much "establishment" support. She would dominate the moderate lane though, and for Governor the NH GOP is more willing to nominate moderates. Maybe she could be nominated for the NH Supreme Court, as there is a vacancy? If the Democrats hold the executive council, but Sununu keeps the Governor's office, then maybe Ayotte could be a compromise between them to fill the vacancy. It's unlikely but possible.

I would also say she has a fairly good relationship with Trump administration, as she was selected to help with the Gorsuch nomination, but I just think she doesn't want to be forced into a position like Collins. A lot of the vitriol against her will fade, and even if "Trumpism" remains a major force in the GOP, hostility toward Ayotte will wane pretty quickly as Trump leaves the scene.

We've spent a lot of time in Vermont thread about NH politics, but to be honest I'm not really complaining. I've quite enjoyed it. I mean, hey, at least it's all New England.

[KaiserDave]

I love the discussion!


But as for Vermont

In the GE for Governor, I'd say Zuckerman is stronger than Holcombe. At least that's what the polls say.

[Brother Jonathan]

I love the discussion!


But as for Vermont

In the GE for Governor, I'd say Zuckerman is stronger than Holcombe. At least that's what the polls say.

He is a fairly strong candidate, I would agree. He certainly has stronger name recognition, and would likely be able to ensure a united Democratic/Progressive ticket, as he is running a write-in campaign for the Progressive nomination and has strong ties to the party.

[KaiserDave]

I love the discussion!


But as for Vermont

In the GE for Governor, I'd say Zuckerman is stronger than Holcombe. At least that's what the polls say.

He is a fairly strong candidate, I would agree. He certainly has stronger name recognition, and would likely be able to ensure a united Democratic/Progressive ticket, as he is running a write-in campaign for the Progressive nomination and has strong ties to the party.

Agreed.

I am adamant that Scott wins either way and COVID has made his reelection even more likely, but Zuckerman will force Scott to dance. Holcombe will be a cakewalk, easier than Minter or Hallquist.

[President Biden Democrat]

I could see why some think this race could be close but it won't be. Scott is very popular and won in 2018 by a safe margin (15%). Scott will win again but it will be closer, which actually is not saying much. I'd rate this state as likely Republican, closer to safe than lean.

[Figueira]

I love the discussion!


But as for Vermont

In the GE for Governor, I'd say Zuckerman is stronger than Holcombe. At least that's what the polls say.

That may be true. But as you know, Scott isn't bad enough that Democrats need to nominate an anti-vaxxer just to have a slightly higher chance of beating him. Also the only way Scott loses is if he personally has some major misstep, in which case it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate. If I were voting in the Democratic primary in Vermont, "who would be the stronger GE candidate" wouldn't really enter into my thinking.

[KaiserDave]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377108.msg7388111#msg7388111

Safe R folks

[KaiserDave]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/07/13/scott-to-debate-engage-in-limited-pre-primary-campaigning

Despite saying he won't campaign until the state of emergency is over, Phil will agree to some campaigning. But I think he'll win the primary easily just due to the inability of his opponents to get in the news at all.

[KaiserDave]

Also, great respect for GOP Lt. Gov candidate Scott Milne for holding the line on supporting mail in voting despite right wing opposition.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2020/07/17/vermont-goes-30-days-no-covid-19-deaths/5432416002/

Just a little something worth sharing. Maybe containing the virus is easier in Vermont than it is in other states, but this article is a testament to the wonderful man who governs the state. A study in contrasts if there ever was one.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2020/07/17/vermont-goes-30-days-no-covid-19-deaths/5432416002/

Just a little something worth sharing. Maybe containing the virus is easier in Vermont than it is in other states, but this article is a testament to the wonderful man who governs the state. A study in contrasts if there ever was one.

Great news, Great article too thank you for sharing. I’ve been watching Vermont and their success is really good news. I don’t believe they’ve had an ICU patient for like two months.

Phil is just really really good at governing and the fundamental tasks of government.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2020/07/17/vermont-goes-30-days-no-covid-19-deaths/5432416002/

this article is a testament to the wonderful man who governs the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Moderate Govs arent vulnerable this yr, and they werent vulnerable in 2018, Hogan, Baker, Sununu and Scott have avoided the controversies that have plagued Parsons and other conservative Govs like Ducey and DeSantis, due to Covid 19.

Dems can win MO, MT and NC and they were expected to lose MT, but Bullock in race, for Sen, Gov election,  it's an even race

[KaiserDave]

In Vermont

Will provide on the ground observations

[KaiserDave]

So day 1

No Phil yardsigns, but that's to be expected given he isn't using yard signs yet, unfortunately.

One house I saw had a Trump and John Klar (main Phil challenger) sign. I may have booed from my car window.

I saw several signs for Emily Peyton on roadsides, who is a perennial candidate running in the GOP primary. She ran in Liberty Union in 2018 (a socialist party) so I will discount her.

Several signs for minor Democratic candidates, none for Zuckerman or Holcombe.

[Continential]

So day 1

No Phil yardsigns, but that's to be expected given he isn't using yard signs yet, unfortunately.

One house I saw had a Trump and John Klar (main Phil challenger) sign. I may have booed from my car window.

I saw several signs for Emily Peyton on roadsides, who is a perennial candidate running in the GOP primary. She ran in Liberty Union in 2018 (a socialist party) so I will discount her.

Several signs for minor Democratic candidates, none for Zuckerman or Holcombe.

Sanders was in the Liberty Union Party before he decided that he wanted to be elected to something.