Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1296861238908125184?ref_src=twsrc%5...


Not at all surprised, and I'm certain he will privately vote for Biden he may even announce that he will

He was smart to wait until after the primary

He should definitely bring Kasich up to campaign for him.

Would be a neat idea, but I'm not confident Kasich would care enough. But it might be a nice way for Phil to get some publicity.

[Figueira]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1296861238908125184?ref_src=twsrc%5...


Not at all surprised, and I'm certain he will privately vote for Biden he may even announce that he will

He was smart to wait until after the primary

He should definitely bring Kasich up to campaign for him.

Would be a neat idea, but I'm not confident Kasich would care enough. But it might be a nice way for Phil to get some publicity.

Why would that help Scott? I'd imagine the vast majority of Vermonters don't care about Kasich. The few who meaningfully like him are already voting for Scott, and the few who meaningfully don't like him will become even less likely to vote for Scott.

[One Term Floridian]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1296861238908125184?ref_src=twsrc%5...

Not at all surprised, and I'm certain he will privately vote for Biden he may even announce that he will

He was smart to wait until after the primary

He should definitely bring Kasich up to campaign for him.

Would be a neat idea, but I'm not confident Kasich would care enough. But it might be a nice way for Phil to get some publicity.

Why would that help Scott? I'd imagine the vast majority of Vermonters don't care about Kasich. The few who meaningfully like him are already voting for Scott, and the few who meaningfully don't like him will become even less likely to vote for Scott.

I would say something like that usually, but looking at the 2016 primary results Kasich ran a very close second to Trump (32.5% Trump v. 30.2% Kasich) and actually tied him in actual delegates earned ( in a field with at least 10 candidates on the VT GOP primary ballot that year.

[Figueira]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1296861238908125184?ref_src=twsrc%5...

Not at all surprised, and I'm certain he will privately vote for Biden he may even announce that he will

He was smart to wait until after the primary

He should definitely bring Kasich up to campaign for him.

Would be a neat idea, but I'm not confident Kasich would care enough. But it might be a nice way for Phil to get some publicity.

Why would that help Scott? I'd imagine the vast majority of Vermonters don't care about Kasich. The few who meaningfully like him are already voting for Scott, and the few who meaningfully don't like him will become even less likely to vote for Scott.

I would say something like that usually, but looking at the 2016 primary results Kasich ran a very close second to Trump (32.5% Trump v. 30.2% Kasich) and actually tied him in actual delegates earned ( in a field with at least 10 candidates on the VT GOP primary ballot that year.

30.2% of the Republican primary electorate in Vermont is still not that many people, and all of those people are already supporting Scott.

[KaiserDave]

I don’t think a Kasich visit would necessarily help Scott in the race, but it would up his National profile

[Figueira]

I don’t think a Kasich visit would necessarily help Scott in the race, but it would up his National profile

Does Scott actually want to up his national profile? It's not like he's going to become President.

[KaiserDave]

I don’t think a Kasich visit would necessarily help Scott in the race, but it would up his National profile

Does Scott actually want to up his national profile? It's not like he's going to become President.

Not necessarily but I think those of us who do want him to get more national press pitched the idea

[One Term Floridian]

Do any of y'all see Scott switching parties in a Biden admin, like Justice did under Trump? I could kinda see that happening, honestly.

[KaiserDave]

Do any of y'all see Scott switching parties in a Biden admin, like Justice did under Trump? I could kinda see that happening, honestly.

Hmmmm. Not out of the question, especially considering that the state GOP is run by rabid Trumpists. But with Justice, he had a record of party switching in a state where he would have had to switch to stay competitive. Phil has been a Republican all his life in a state still willing to elect moderate Rs.

Although it would be funny if he did and all the red Avs suddenly became fans.

[One Term Floridian]

Do any of y'all see Scott switching parties in a Biden admin, like Justice did under Trump? I could kinda see that happening, honestly.

Hmmmm. Not out of the question, especially considering that the state GOP is run by rabid Trumpists. But with Justice, he had a record of party switching in a state where he would have had to switch to stay competitive. Phil has been a Republican all his life in a state still willing to elect moderate Rs.

Although it would be funny if he did and all the red Avs suddenly became fans.

Lol I'm already a fan tho!

[KaiserDave]

Do any of y'all see Scott switching parties in a Biden admin, like Justice did under Trump? I could kinda see that happening, honestly.

Hmmmm. Not out of the question, especially considering that the state GOP is run by rabid Trumpists. But with Justice, he had a record of party switching in a state where he would have had to switch to stay competitive. Phil has been a Republican all his life in a state still willing to elect moderate Rs.

Although it would be funny if he did and all the red Avs suddenly became fans.

Lol I'm already a fan tho!

We are the few, the proud, the strong. Red Avs for Phil

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Do any of y'all see Scott switching parties in a Biden admin, like Justice did under Trump? I could kinda see that happening, honestly.

Hmmmm. Not out of the question, especially considering that the state GOP is run by rabid Trumpists. But with Justice, he had a record of party switching in a state where he would have had to switch to stay competitive. Phil has been a Republican all his life in a state still willing to elect moderate Rs.

Although it would be funny if he did and all the red Avs suddenly became fans.

I guess I'd be one of the galaxy brain red AVIs who'd appreciate him less if he did that.

[KaiserDave]

Do any of y'all see Scott switching parties in a Biden admin, like Justice did under Trump? I could kinda see that happening, honestly.

Hmmmm. Not out of the question, especially considering that the state GOP is run by rabid Trumpists. But with Justice, he had a record of party switching in a state where he would have had to switch to stay competitive. Phil has been a Republican all his life in a state still willing to elect moderate Rs.

Although it would be funny if he did and all the red Avs suddenly became fans.

I guess I'd be one of the galaxy brain red AVIs who'd appreciate him less if he did that.

I get that, I'm not a huge fan of party switchers.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/08/18/scott-proposes-plan-to-close-180-million-deficit-without-major-cuts/

Despite attacks on Scott over the idea that he would embrace crippling austerity......nope!

Can't stop the Scott

[Figueira]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/08/18/scott-proposes-plan-to-close-180-million-deficit-without-major-cuts/

Despite attacks on Scott over the idea that he would embrace crippling austerity......nope!

Can't stop the Scott

Shouldn't this be "Good on Scott for doing a good job with the budget" and not "Suck it, liberal critics!"?

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/08/18/scott-proposes-plan-to-close-180-million-deficit-without-major-cuts/

Despite attacks on Scott over the idea that he would embrace crippling austerity......nope!

Can't stop the Scott

Shouldn't this be "Good on Scott for doing a good job with the budget" and not "Suck it, liberal critics!"?

Naturally, yes that is it. The main takeaway is his continued steady leadership. I’m just having a bit of fun. After all, I am a liberal.

[KaiserDave]

No, obviously I don't like Phil Scott this much. But I enjoy memes and North Korean art, so there



Talk Elections posters for Phil!

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/09/02/candidates-file-first-post-primary-campaign-finance-reports

In the Lt. Governor's race, it seems like Milne might have more of a chance than I think I initially thought, and many did when it was assumed Ashe was the going to be the Dem nominee. I still think the race is at the very least lean D, but Milne did manage to outraise Scott (though not his Democratic opponent). Of course a lot of that was from his family/lent to himself, but I still think it seems like Scott  and Milne running a closely coordinated campaign could possibly pull Milne over the line against an opponent with fairly low name recognition. I think Scott may not run such a campaign, however, and I doubt Milne can win on his higher name recognition alone, an advantage also likely to be dulled by his opponents fundraising advantage. The nature of this campaign though is likely to help candidates with already high name recognition, so I'm interested to see if Milne may be able to pull out a win.

[Continential]

I wonder what will the political future of the Vermont Republican Party in the other offices considering a lot of their positions are filled with Brookie Page, and I wonder how well the Progressive Party will do in the downballot and the Auditor election as Cris Erickson is the only candidate.

[Brother Jonathan]

I wonder what will the political future of the Vermont Republican Party in the other offices considering a lot of their positions are filled with Brookie Page, and I wonder how well the Progressive Party will do in the downballot and the Auditor election as Cris Erickson is the only candidate.

Well, for the immediate future the Republicans are probably going to stick with Phil Scott types at the top while letting the more conservative element have the run of the show down ballot and in the more GOP leaning areas of the state. To some extent the party nominates people like Brooke Paige simply because they know they don't really have a shot unseating someone like Jim Condos, who has pretty broad appeal and will win against pretty much any challenger, so no one really runs for those positions when they have an incumbent. Focusing on open seats at the statewide level is generally a pretty good strategy for them.

[KaiserDave]

Interesting article and commentary. I think Milne has a chance, but I’m just not sure any Republican not named Phil Scott can win statewide right now. As for the fundraising, I think Scott’s just not really working at that hence the low numbers from his camp.

[Brother Jonathan]

This is true, Scott is avoiding fundraising at this point. I also don't think he is really going to be interested in running a campaign to boost Milne, and I think Gray is a fairly competent and respected candidate who has higher name recognition than one would expect of someone who hasn't really held elected office before. In general I don't think Milne will win, but there is chance at least if the campaign goes well for him, Gray proves to have low name recognition, and Scott is able to provide Milne with a boost (though Scott hasn't really had coattails in the past).

[KaiserDave]

Milne needs to avoid slip ups on policy like his 2014 voucher plan, emphasize his anti Trump credentials and him supporting Phil when in office, and hammering away at Gray’s inexperience and dubious residency status.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/09/06/margolis-its-much-too-early-to-call-the-governors-race/


Good article

It makes a few cheap and inaccurate attacks on Scott but I enjoyed reading it

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2014/11/08/even-near-miracle-milne-remains-outsider/

Very old article (2014), but a good one on the dynamics of the Vermont GOP

Edit: Basically how Phil played some 4-D Chess on Milne to get his shot in 2016 at the expense of Milne in 2014. And now Milne is looking to play second fiddle to Scott. Everything spinning around.