Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

I have returned to Vermont, which means the yard sign diary resumes.

Note that I am in Windsor County now, and will be in Lamoille County in three days.

Klar signs everywhere, front yards, on roads, at roundabouts. Everywhere.  Seeing my first few Holcombe signs, and no Zuckerman signs. A few Scott signs. Several Trump signs.

Lots of signs for Tim Ashe and Meg Hansen for Lt. Governor. No sign of the Milne campaign anywhere.

Now this probably all means very little, but it is very interesting (and concerning) to note.

[KaiserDave]

So so so many John Klar signs. It's really incredible how many. I've never seen such pervasive signs for any candidate in any location before.

First Scott Milne sign spotted today, he's outnumbered by the conservative-libertarian Meg Hansen signs however. Democrat-Progressive Timothy Ashe signs outnumber both however.

A decent amount of Trump signs, including Trump flags.

However, there remains a silent, strong majority for Scott in my view. And not always so silent as illustrated in this sign put up by a local small business.


https://twitter.com/oliverolsen/status/1292471128645083137

Primary day approaches, any suggestions for my activities then?

[Roll Roons]

So so so many John Klar signs. It's really incredible how many. I've never seen such pervasive signs for any candidate in any location before.

First Scott Milne sign spotted today, he's outnumbered by the conservative-libertarian Meg Hansen signs however. Democrat-Progressive Timothy Ashe signs outnumber both however.

A decent amount of Trump signs, including Trump flags.

However, there remains a silent, strong majority for Scott in my view. And not always so silent as illustrated in this sign put up by a local small business.


https://twitter.com/oliverolsen/status/1292471128645083137

Primary day approaches, any suggestions for my activities then?

What do you think the deal is with there being so many Klar signs?

[KaiserDave]

So so so many John Klar signs. It's really incredible how many. I've never seen such pervasive signs for any candidate in any location before.

First Scott Milne sign spotted today, he's outnumbered by the conservative-libertarian Meg Hansen signs however. Democrat-Progressive Timothy Ashe signs outnumber both however.

A decent amount of Trump signs, including Trump flags.

However, there remains a silent, strong majority for Scott in my view. And not always so silent as illustrated in this sign put up by a local small business.


https://twitter.com/oliverolsen/status/1292471128645083137

Primary day approaches, any suggestions for my activities then?

What do you think the deal is with there being so many Klar signs?

I think among those Republicans opposed to Scott, they are rather angry and have a credible candidate to rally around. I admit myself I thought Klar was even less credible than Keith Stern in 2018 and I was wrong, he's even rallied a whole coalition of conservative "Agripublicans" to seek state office.

However, it's very foolish to read into yard signs. I've seen perhaps triple the Trump signs compared to Biden signs and we know Biden is going to win by +30 points. However, my gut says that this gubernatorial primary may be close, or not. It wouldn't surprise me if Phil glides over Klar by over 30 points, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he skates by with a 5 point lead. That may be hard to get, but I don't know that's just how I feel. I'm probably reading too much into the yard signs.

Experts, including prominent Republicans agree that Phil is in a very good position, mostly because he's swamped the air waves with his COVID press conferences. Klar's time on TV and radio is few and far between, even on the internet content is limited.

[President Johnson]

A little off topic, but are there any attempts to have four year terms? Two years is ridiculously short for a chief-executive, regardless of how "small" the state is. I really wonder why Vermont and New Hampshire don't change their laws? Virginia should also get rid of the one term limit. Both are relics from the 19th century.

[cinyc]

I'm going to attempt to live map this and 7 other VT primaries tonight, based on the Secretary of State data:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/vt/vt-2020-state-prim-by-town

Click on Menu to change the map/race.

[Brother Jonathan]

A little off topic, but are there any attempts to have four year terms? Two years is ridiculously short for a chief-executive, regardless of how "small" the state is. I really wonder why Vermont and New Hampshire don't change their laws? Virginia should also get rid of the one term limit. Both are relics from the 19th century.

In Vermont there has been, this legislative session in fact, but it died when a Senate Committee chair refused the bill a hearing (even though it was sponsored by the Senate President). I don't think it's really all that popular. A few former governors are opposed to four year terms (though some are for it), and I just don't think it is something people really care about strongly one way or the other.

A few years ago it was pushed in NH, but died in the legislature. I do recall polling from the mid 2000s that suggested a pretty solid majority of NH voters supported a four year term for governors, but like in Vermont I don't think people feel all that strongly about it.

The reason they don't change is basically just because the state legislatures seem to think it would make the governor more powerful/less accountable, and that's probably true.

[Roll Roons]

https://apps.npr.org/elections20-primaries/states/VT.html#date=8%2F11%2F2020&office=G&party=GOP&counties=true&state

Only a few votes so far, but Phil has 85%.

[KaiserDave]

Thrilled to report we are witnessing a Philslide!!!!!


He can’t be stopped!!!!

[KaiserDave]

Looks like Holcombe might win the upper class urban liberals and Zuckerman everywhere else

It’s close, but Zuck will win

[Continential]

What is with Ashe trailing?

[KaiserDave]

It's official

Zuckerman vs Scott


What side are you on?

[KaiserDave]

Timothy Ashe losing to Molly Gray was not something I expected.

I suppose I support Gray but Milne may have a shot.

[LtNOWIS]

Timothy Ashe losing to Molly Gray was not something I expected.

I suppose I support Gray but Milne may have a shot.

Isn't Gray slightly to the right of Ashe, but still quite liberal by national standards?

I followed her on Twitter ages ago and I can't remember why. Just a somewhat compelling candidate to me I guess.

[Roll Roons]

So so so many John Klar signs. It's really incredible how many. I've never seen such pervasive signs for any candidate in any location before.

First Scott Milne sign spotted today, he's outnumbered by the conservative-libertarian Meg Hansen signs however. Democrat-Progressive Timothy Ashe signs outnumber both however.

A decent amount of Trump signs, including Trump flags.

However, there remains a silent, strong majority for Scott in my view. And not always so silent as illustrated in this sign put up by a local small business.


https://twitter.com/oliverolsen/status/1292471128645083137

Primary day approaches, any suggestions for my activities then?

What do you think the deal is with there being so many Klar signs?

I think among those Republicans opposed to Scott, they are rather angry and have a credible candidate to rally around. I admit myself I thought Klar was even less credible than Keith Stern in 2018 and I was wrong, he's even rallied a whole coalition of conservative "Agripublicans" to seek state office.

However, it's very foolish to read into yard signs. I've seen perhaps triple the Trump signs compared to Biden signs and we know Biden is going to win by +30 points. However, my gut says that this gubernatorial primary may be close, or not. It wouldn't surprise me if Phil glides over Klar by over 30 points, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he skates by with a 5 point lead. That may be hard to get, but I don't know that's just how I feel. I'm probably reading too much into the yard signs.

Experts, including prominent Republicans agree that Phil is in a very good position, mostly because he's swamped the air waves with his COVID press conferences. Klar's time on TV and radio is few and far between, even on the internet content is limited.

Luckily, all those Klar signs you saw didn't end up meaning much in the end. Our king is very much alive, and ready to kick ass in November!

[Anna Komnene]

Molly Gray had support from Shumlin and Kunin and ran kind of a rural-centric campaign, so it's not really surprising that she was strong outside Chittenden county. Apparently some people think she's being groomed to replace Peter Welch or Leahy/Sanders when the time comes, as Vermont has never sent a woman to congress.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Molly Gray had support from Shumlin and Kunin and ran kind of a rural-centric campaign, so it's not really surprising that she was strong outside Chittenden county. Apparently some people think she's being groomed to replace Peter Welch or Leahy/Sanders when the time comes, as Vermont has never sent a woman to congress.

It's kind of ironic that Vermont of all places is one of those states. Waiting out her time as LG until one of the Senate seats opens up seems like a good call for her. Vermont LG's seem to do pretty well when seeking higher office, generally.

[cinyc]

Phil Scott won two towns in the Democratic Governor Primary as a write-in: tiny Brunswick in the Northeast Kingdom, and Franklin on the Canadian border.

He currently received 4.6% of the votes in the Dem Gov Primary - a percentage that will only go up as the write-ins are individually tallied in the rest of the towns. It could end up being as high as 6.4%.

So far, he's winning 95.5% of the write-ins as they're getting individually tallied.

[SevenEleven]

Molly Gray had support from Shumlin and Kunin and ran kind of a rural-centric campaign, so it's not really surprising that she was strong outside Chittenden county. Apparently some people think she's being groomed to replace Peter Welch or Leahy/Sanders when the time comes, as Vermont has never sent a woman to congress.

It's kind of ironic that Vermont of all places is one of those states. Waiting out her time as LG until one of the Senate seats opens up seems like a good call for her. Vermont LG's seem to do pretty well when seeking higher office, generally.

Why is that ironic? Vermont only ever had the single seat and two Senators, and has never been a swing state that leads to incumbents losing.

[Anna Komnene]

Molly Gray had support from Shumlin and Kunin and ran kind of a rural-centric campaign, so it's not really surprising that she was strong outside Chittenden county. Apparently some people think she's being groomed to replace Peter Welch or Leahy/Sanders when the time comes, as Vermont has never sent a woman to congress.

It's kind of ironic that Vermont of all places is one of those states. Waiting out her time as LG until one of the Senate seats opens up seems like a good call for her. Vermont LG's seem to do pretty well when seeking higher office, generally.

Why is that ironic? Vermont only ever had the single seat and two Senators, and has never been a swing state that leads to incumbents losing.

Ironic I guess because the left is usually associated with representing women, but the right has managed their fair share over the years too. There hasn't been much opportunity in Vermont recently, yet every other state in the country managed it at some point in the past century. A couple years ago there was some distress in some Vermonter circles when Mississippi beat them to it. They became the last state without female representation in congress, and it became a bit of a national story. Nobody likes being beat out by Mississippi. Some Vermonters have been organizing to elevate more women to higher office and to make sure they are ready to jump in for a statewide race when they get the chance.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Fmr. Gov. Candidate Ethan Sonneborn weighed in right before the primary, curious to see what KaiserDave has to say about what Sonneborn says about Scott: https://vtdigger.org/election_brief/watch-former-gov-candidate-ethan-sonneborn-on-this-years-primary-field/

[KaiserDave]

Fmr. Gov. Candidate Ethan Sonneborn weighed in right before the primary, curious to see what KaiserDave has to say about what Sonneborn says about Scott: https://vtdigger.org/election_brief/watch-former-gov-candidate-ethan-sonneborn-on-this-years-primary-field/

I'm honored that I am now the go-to for Phil Scott opinions.

As for what Ethan said, he's articulated the same thing that Zuckerman and Holcombe has that Phil hasn't done the job outside of the pandemic. And the oft-repeated line that Scott is a "nice guy" but that's not what matters. Of course I don't agree, but it's certainly a more effective strategy than attacking the best COVID response in the country.

He did attack Scott's school reopening plan, but on the whole I didn't hear anything from him I haven't heard from all the other Vermont Democrats. I do know that Ethan and all the other prominent Vermont Democrats are doomed to watch history repeat itself for the third time as Scott skips to a +10% victory. +38 lol

[KaiserDave]

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2020/august/14/john-klar-withdraws-vermont-governor-race

Klar exits the race officially, quitting his potential independent run.


Buh-bye. His focus on kitchen table issues on the surface is good, but he showed his true colors by attacking Phil from the Trumpist right and his silly stunts on BLM to get him on Fox News.

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1296861238908125184?ref_src=twsrc%5...


Not at all surprised, and I'm certain he will privately vote for Biden he may even announce that he will

He was smart to wait until after the primary

[Kingpoleon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1296861238908125184?ref_src=twsrc%5...


Not at all surprised, and I'm certain he will privately vote for Biden he may even announce that he will

He was smart to wait until after the primary

He should definitely bring Kasich up to campaign for him.