Will Biden win all of the Big Three in the Rust belt?

[Spark]

I think that Biden will carry at least 1 of the 3 states (either MI or PA) IMO.

MOST R

Indiana - Trump +17 (55-38)
Iowa - Trump +13 (52-39)
Ohio - Trump +6 (51-45)
Wisconsin - Trump +2 (49-47)
Michigan - Trump +1 (49-48)
Pennsylvania - Biden +2 (50-48)
Minnesota - Biden +3 (50-47)
Illinois - Biden +21 (57-36)

MOST D

[Ferguson97]

I think that Biden will carry at least 1 of the 3 states (either MI or PA) IMO.

MOST R

Indiana - Trump +17 (55-38)
Iowa - Trump +13 (52-39)
Ohio - Trump +6 (51-45)
Wisconsin - Trump +2 (49-47)
Michigan - Trump +1 (49-48)
Pennsylvania - Biden +2 (50-48)
Minnesota - Biden +3 (50-47)
Illinois - Biden +21 (57-36)

MOST D

Out of the ones you listed, he definitely wins Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Trump wins Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio.

Wisconsin is a tossup.

[Xing]

If the election were held today, Biden would win all three, but I'd still call MI/PA/WI Toss-Ups, with PA being the most likely to go to Biden. Don't buy WI voting way to the right of MI/PA. Hard to see him winning any of the others, even if he wins big.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm confused. What exactly does the poll represent.

In the thread title you ask: "Will Biden win all of the Big Three in the Rust belt?"
Your poll question says: "How many states will Biden win in the Rust Belt?” and then you give options for users to vote up to 5.
So if 5, which 5 states are we talking about?

[jake_arlington]

Absolutely not.

[dw93]

Solid Biden:
IL
MN

Lean Biden:
MI
PA

Pure Toss Up:
WI

Solid Trump (from most solid to least):
IN
OH
IA

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How will anyone here be able to provide you a credible answer? No one here has a crystal ball.

[Real Texan Politics]

I only chose two since you said big three in the title. Wisconsin could flip but it's not as likely as Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

4 WI, OH, MI and PA. King is most likely will be defeated in the primary; as a result, Ernst wont have King as a drag with her running for reelection. However, Portman and his approvals have been going down.

[Ferguson97]

Solid Biden:
IL
MN

Lean Biden:
MI
PA

Pure Toss Up:
WI

Solid Trump (from most solid to least):
IN
OH
IA

Ohio is much more likely to flip than Iowa, IMO. Though I think both will go for Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH isnt sold on Trump since 18 percent AA live in Youngstown metro and Hamilton county.

Just as many AA live in NE VA live in NE OH

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Safe R: IN, MO
Likely R: IA
Lean R: OH
Tilt D: PA, WI
Lean D: MI, MN
Safe D: IL, NY

I didn't vote in the poll. To my knowledge, this is the maximum extent of the rust belt, and I'm not sure which subset of 5 states the poll refers to.

[pppolitics]

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT in the Rust Belt.

New York is in the Rust Belt, but not in your list.

[Ferguson97]

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT in the Rust Belt.

New York is in the Rust Belt, but not in your list.

People have come to use "Rust Belt" and "Midwest" interchangeably, even if it's not accurate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT in the Rust Belt.

New York is in the Rust Belt, but not in your list.

People have come to use "Rust Belt" and "Midwest" interchangeably, even if it's not accurate.

They are now just the domain of [F O L S K Y - P O P U L I S M]

[Orwell]

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT in the Rust Belt.

New York is in the Rust Belt, but not in your list.

People have come to use "Rust Belt" and "Midwest" interchangeably, even if it's not accurate.

There is a map on Wikipedia showing county job losses or something and it extends to Mass iirc.

The reason people use Rust/Midwest interchangbly is because there is tons of overlap, Minnesota and Iowa are both actually apart of the rust belt according to this map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt

[pppolitics]

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT in the Rust Belt.

New York is in the Rust Belt, but not in your list.

People have come to use "Rust Belt" and "Midwest" interchangeably, even if it's not accurate.

There is a map on Wikipedia showing county job losses or something and it extends to Mass iirc.

The reason people use Rust/Midwest interchangbly is because there is tons of overlap, Minnesota and Iowa are both actually apart of the rust belt according to this map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT part of the Rust Belt.

The Rust Belt is a region running across parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Once known for thriving iron and steel industries, the Rust Belt gets its name from the abandoned factories and urban decay that have marked the region since the 1970s.

The region is usually said to include parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

https://www.businessinsider.com/regions-america-bible-belt-rust-belt-2018-4#rust-belt-8

[NewYorkExpress]

Everything except Indiana is winnable for Biden at this moment.

Biden probably would need to pick Buttigeig as his running mate to have a serious shot at winning Indiana, and while I would like to see that, that won't happen in 2020.

[SN2903]

Indiana - Trump +21 (60-39)
Iowa - Trump +15 (57-42)
Ohio - Trump +10 (54-44)
Wisconsin - Trump +6 (52-46)
Michigan - Trump +2 (50-48)
Pennsylvania - Trump +1 (50-49)
Minnesota - Trump +1 (49-48)
Illinois - Biden +19 (56-37)

[Progressive Pessimist]

He has to if he wants to win the election. I can't say for sure that he will, but I think Michigan may already be in his column.

Minnesota and Iowa are NOT in the Rust Belt.

New York is in the Rust Belt, but not in your list.

People have come to use "Rust Belt" and "Midwest" interchangeably, even if it's not accurate.

It isn't accurate, especially since Pennsylvania is not part of the Midwest.

[Ferguson97]

Indiana - Trump+18
Iowa - Trump+7
Ohio - Trump+5

Wisconsin - Biden +.01
Minnesota - Biden+4
Michigan - Biden+5
Pennsylvania - Biden+6
Illinois - Biden+22

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe D- Minnesota- Biden + 3-Biden +12
Likely D Pennsylvania- Trump + 1-Biden + 11
Lean D MI(R+3-D+9) WI(R+5-D+10, closer to tilt D)
Lean R- Ohio(closer to likely)
Likely R- Iowa(D+.5-R+7)
Safe R- Indiana(R+8-R+17)

[jake_arlington]

Yeah but in common parlance I haven't heard of most of NY being referred to as remotely in the Rest Belt.

However, definitely Minnesota, and sometimes even Eastern Iowa, are generally included.

But the difference between UMW/Rust is different than (most) would seem to think, at least on there.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Yeah but in common parlance I haven't heard of most of NY being referred to as remotely in the Rest Belt.

However, definitely Minnesota, and sometimes even Eastern Iowa, are generally included.

But the difference between UMW/Rust is different than (most) would seem to think, at least on there.

People who include Minnesota are probably thinking about the Iron Range area in the northeast part of the state.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah but in common parlance I haven't heard of most of NY being referred to as remotely in the Rest Belt.

However, definitely Minnesota, and sometimes even Eastern Iowa, are generally included.

But the difference between UMW/Rust is different than (most) would seem to think, at least on there.

I only listed MO because I've seen St Louis included at times.