AZ-Sen 2022: Mark Kelly (D, inc.) vs. Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

[Sir Mohamed]

Many on this forum, including myself, have raised the idea Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) only appointed Martha McSally to John McCain's seat because he saw her as weak candidate he wanted to lose; so he himself can run on the GOP side in the next regular election in 2022. He'll be term-limited as gov that year. Assuming his plan works and Kelly defeats McSally, how would you rate this election in a Biden midterm? I think discussing a Trump midterm isn't worth it, Kelly would be heavily favored and Ducey likely not even running (excluding a scenario in which Kelly has a major scandal).

As of now, I would rate it Tossup/tilt D. AZ is trending D pretty fast and I'm not sure Biden, if elected prez, will face a 2010 or 1994-style backlash. The race would be highly competitive for sure and a major GOP target, but I believe Kelly would narrowly pull it off. And he may be a senator lasting for many years.

[😥]

Trump midterm: Safe D
Biden midterm: Lean D

[SnowLabrador]

In a Biden midterm, this would be Lean R (flip). A lot would need to go right for Kelly to win, but he would by no means be DOA. Hopefully he'd run a better campaign than Bill Nelson did in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Biden midterm, this would be Lean R (flip). A lot would need to go right for Kelly to win, but he would by no means be DOA. Hopefully he'd run a better campaign than Bill Nelson did in 2018.

Kelly havent been sworn in yet and all the Rs wsnt him defeated, Kelly will make it 6 yrs, the Rs underestimated him against McSally and will again🤩🤩🤩

[MarkD]

I also rate it tossup/tilt D. Gov. Ducey would make a formidable opponent to Mark Kelly making this a very tight race.

[Suburbia]

Lean R.

Kelly would have to prevent himself from being like Bill Nelson.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Tossup/Tilt R but could easily go the way of CO Sen in 2010.

[Xing]

Toss-Up in a Biden midterm, Likely D in a Trump midterm. I know Atlas loves parallels, but I don’t think Mark Kelly can really be compared to Bill Nelson just because “astroNUT”. I doubt Kelly would run as lazy of a campaign.

[President Johnson]

Toss-Up in a Biden midterm, Likely D in a Trump midterm. I know Atlas loves parallels, but I don’t think Mark Kelly can really be compared to Bill Nelson just because “astroNUT”. I doubt Kelly would run as lazy of a campaign.

I think Mark Kelly could be more of a modern Arizona version of John Glenn. Popular senator of a swing state.

Too early to rate the race, probably pure tossup that could go either way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How is Ducey doing right now? Last time I checked his COVID response didn't exactly get high marks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ducey is the Jan Brewer of AZ, a twice elected Gov whom was disliked at the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump midterm: Safe D
Biden midterm: Lean D

[Water Hazard]

Lean R in a Biden midterm, Lean D in a Trump midterm, at least to start. If McSally is really as bad of a candidate as conventional wisdom seems to suggest, certainly Ducey would be a much tougher opponent in any case.

[MillennialModerate]

If Kelly wins this year and acts as moderate as can be....

Trump Midterm: Safe D
Biden Midterm: Lean D (closer to Likely than Tilt)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump midterm Likely D, Biden midterm Tilt D, I think Kelly would play it smart like Sinema.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Arizona is not turning into Virginia yall. Too many old people that, while they may be dissatisfied with people who are saying they should sacrifice themselves, will go back to republicans when this is over.
As I mentioned in another thread, I think Arizona will turn into a light blue state that votes R in GOP wave years(especially in midterms where hispanic turnout is poor).

I think come 2026 or so, GOP will fare worse in Texas to be honest. Even in a midterm with low hispanic turnout, but here GOP doesnt have the olds they need.

[NewYorkExpress]

In a Trump midterm, Ducey won't even run.

He'll wait until Simena's seat is up in 2024.

In a Biden midterm, I'd peg this one as Lean R, but closer to Tilt than Likely. A lot would have to go right for Kelly to win a full term, but he wouldn't be DOA the way Doug Jones is this year, or Heidi Heitkamp was in 2018.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Arizona is not turning into Virginia yall. Too many old people that, while they may be dissatisfied with people who are saying they should sacrifice themselves, will go back to republicans when this is over.
As I mentioned in another thread, I think Arizona will turn into a light blue state that votes R in GOP wave years(especially in midterms where hispanic turnout is poor).

You've got a point. Within two years of voting blue, Virginia Republicans handily swept the state office races, gained seats in the House of Delegates & took most of the Congressional seats. Smooth sailing ever since for the GOP!

It's not like Arizona is taking in California folks who are bringing their politics along or anything

[Del Tachi]

In a Biden midterm, Ducey would win.

[MillennialModerate]

In a Trump midterm, Ducey won't even run.

He'll wait until Simena's seat is up in 2024.

In a Biden midterm, I'd peg this one as Lean R, but closer to Tilt than Likely. A lot would have to go right for Kelly to win a full term, but he wouldn't be DOA the way Doug Jones is this year, or Heidi Heitkamp was in 2018.

Eh I actually disagree with this. Usually I’m pessimistic but if Kelly wins this year - I can’t see him losing in 2022 unless Biden wins and is extremely unpopular. And Kelly votes more left than moderate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Biden midterm, Ducey would win.

Biden wouldnt be nearly as unpopular as Trump, hopefully Trump will be behind bars for corruption, since 3 of his lawyers are for corruption of 2016 election of Russia, by a D attorney General.

Kelly will serve 6 yrs not 2

[Del Tachi]

In a Biden midterm, Ducey would win.

Biden wouldnt be nearly as unpopular as Trump, hopefully Trump will be behind bars for corruption, since 3 of his lawyers are for corruption of 2016 election of Russia, by a D attorney General.

Kelly will serve 6 yrs not 2

1994, 2010 and 2018 have all seen the first-term president's party (bigly!) lose seats.  I don't see why Sleepy Joe in 2022 would be any different. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Biden midterm, Ducey would win.

Biden wouldnt be nearly as unpopular as Trump, hopefully Trump will be behind bars for corruption, since 3 of his lawyers are for corruption of 2016 election of Russia, by a D attorney General.

Kelly will serve 6 yrs not 2

1994, 2010 and 2018 have all seen the first-term president's party (bigly!) lose seats.  I don't see why Sleepy Joe in 2022 would be any different. 

Trump had a 44% approval rating for corruption of 2016 campaign, that's why he lost seats under a 3.5 percent unemployment rate.

I am not saying it's not possible,  but Kelly will be a fighter for every vote he can get

[2016]

Many on this forum, including myself, have raised the idea Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) only appointed Martha McSally to John McCain's seat because he saw her as weak candidate he wanted to lose; so he himself can run on the GOP side in the next regular election in 2022. He'll be term-limited as gov that year. Assuming his plan works and Kelly defeats McSally, how would you rate this election in a Biden midterm? I think discussing a Trump midterm isn't worth it, Kelly would be heavily favored and Ducey likely not even running (excluding a scenario in which Kelly has a major scandal).

As of now, I would rate it Tossup/tilt D. AZ is trending D pretty fast and I'm not sure Biden, if elected prez, will face a 2010 or 1994-style backlash. The race would be highly competitive for sure and a major GOP target, but I believe Kelly would narrowly pull it off. And he may be a senator lasting for many years.

He didn't appoint her because he wanted her to lose. He had no other choice here.
# 1 John McCain's Daughter Meghan McCain didn't want to run.
# 2 The only other Candidate who would have had a reasonable chance holding the Seat was State Treasurer Kimberly Yee but she just elected to that Office in 2018 so a Senate Run would have likely come to early here.
# 3 If Katie Hobbs wouldn't have won the Secretary of State Race in 2018 Ducey would be running against Kelly this year but he didn't want Democrats to get the AZ Governorship.
# 4 I assure you though that Yee is going to run in 2024 against Moderate Kyrsten and put her back into her place.

[2016]

In a Biden midterm, Ducey would win.

Biden wouldnt be nearly as unpopular as Trump, hopefully Trump will be behind bars for corruption, since 3 of his lawyers are for corruption of 2016 election of Russia, by a D attorney General.

Kelly will serve 6 yrs not 2

Wrong! You are hilarious! If Biden has sub 50 % Approval Nationally in 2022 assuming he wins this year Ducey is going to beat Kelly.