Day 1: Itasca County, MN

[Sol]

I've been thinking, in the interest of trying something new out, I'll post a county from each state each day and ask y'all how said county will vote in 2020. I know this is a bit silly and such, but I figured it also could be a good excuse to lay out our priors, etc.

[Ferguson97]

I was surprised by how large of a marginal swing this made.

2012: 53-42 Obama

2016: 65-27 Trump

[krb08]

I was surprised by how large of a marginal swing this made.

2012: 53-42 Obama

2016: 65-27 Trump

2016 was 54-38 Trump, not 65-27.

[Ferguson97]

I was surprised by how large of a marginal swing this made.

2012: 53-42 Obama

2016: 65-27 Trump

2016 was 54-38 Trump, not 65-27.

Woops, you're right. I looked at Isanti by mistake.

[Gracile]

I was surprised by how large of a marginal swing this made.

2012: 53-42 Obama

2016: 65-27 Trump

It was 54-38 Trump, actually.

This will go to Trump. Klobuchar was the only statewide Democrat who won this county in 2018 (it voted R at the congressional level, too) and her statewide map isn't replicable at the presidential level. Itasca County has tacked hard right relative to the state post-2016.

[😥]

Lean R. Trump 52-43

[TDAS04]

Trump will probably win with a narrower margin than he did in 2016.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump +14.

[TML]

This is a county where the primary mode of economic activity is forestry/logging, and such counties broke strongly for Trump in 2016 and mostly stayed in the Republican column in 2018. On that basis, I would expect Trump to win it again.