SC-Civiqs: Trump +10

[Skye]

Trump 52
Biden 42

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_SC_banner_book_2020_05_b68sg1x.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Trump won SC by 14% in 2016, Romney won by 11% in 2012, and McCain won by 9% in 2008, so this jives with an Obama 08 result for Biden nationally, which makes sense.

[wbrocks67]

WOW, lots of undecideds in the senate race, but was not expecting it to be tied.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WOW, lots of undecideds in the senate race, but was not expecting it to be tied.

Harrison was Clyburn's staffer that helped Biden clinched the nomination. Tim Scott is an African American R for the state. He was the first African American to represent SC since Reconstruction

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Sounds about right

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

South Carolina is one of the very few states that has never trended toward either party in more than a generation.  For more than 30 years, it has basically voted almost exactly 15-16 points to the right of the nation in every presidential election.

[Calthrina950]

South Carolina is one of the very few states that has never trended toward either party in more than a generation.  For more than 30 years, it has basically voted almost exactly 15-16 points to the right of the nation in every presidential election.

South Carolina has been remarkably consistent in its pro-Republican voting habits. There have been very few changes to the county-level map in the past twenty years, with only a handful of rural counties flipping Republican and Charleston County shifting Democratic in that time. As was mentioned above, Obama came within single digits in the state in 2008. If Biden manages to do so this year, that may be enough for Joe Cunningham to win reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harrison and McGrath are out raising Graham and McConnell, the Rs will lose

[Ferguson97]

If Biden is a polling error away from being within single digits of SC, then Trump is screwed.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Looks about right. I think the worst Trump can do here is probably +8.

[Nyvin]

The presidential numbers seem totally reasonable.   

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I'd hope Biden would get a bit closer, but seems about right. Still not a good poll for Trump, but few conclusions can be drawn for this poll. Compared to 2016, the numbers haven't moved a lot in a what is called an inelastic state. The senator race however leaves room for hope. Hopefully Harrison makes it, but I doubt it.

[pbrower2a]

Note that the Senate race, which involves an incumbent, is tied, even if Trump is ahead of Biden in the Presidential horse-race.

Trump is above 50% in favorability, but barely above unfavorability at 47%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS, SC and TX are trending D

[TDAS04]

Seems very plausible.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

South Carolina is one of the very few states that has never trended toward either party in more than a generation.  For more than 30 years, it has basically voted almost exactly 15-16 points to the right of the nation in every presidential election.

South Carolina has been remarkably consistent in its pro-Republican voting habits. There have been very few changes to the county-level map in the past twenty years, with only a handful of rural counties flipping Republican and Charleston County shifting Democratic in that time. As was mentioned above, Obama came within single digits in the state in 2008. If Biden manages to do so this year, that may be enough for Joe Cunningham to win reelection.

Isn't the SC Republican map a VRA violation? SC has a 30% black population, and there is only 1 of 7 that (14%) is a black seat. A second black seat would be at 29% of the population which is right where the black population is statewide. SC should have 2 black seats not 1. Republicans since the 1990 census have been willing to give away safe black seats in the Deep South, as it made all the rest of the seats safe Republican white ones.

[Calthrina950]

South Carolina is one of the very few states that has never trended toward either party in more than a generation.  For more than 30 years, it has basically voted almost exactly 15-16 points to the right of the nation in every presidential election.

South Carolina has been remarkably consistent in its pro-Republican voting habits. There have been very few changes to the county-level map in the past twenty years, with only a handful of rural counties flipping Republican and Charleston County shifting Democratic in that time. As was mentioned above, Obama came within single digits in the state in 2008. If Biden manages to do so this year, that may be enough for Joe Cunningham to win reelection.

Isn't the SC Republican map a VRA violation? SC has a 30% black population, and there is only 1 of 7 that (14%) is a black seat. A second black seat would be at 29% of the population which is right where the black population is statewide. SC should have 2 black seats not 1. Republicans since the 1990 census have been willing to give away safe black seats in the Deep South, as it made all the rest of the seats safe Republican white ones.

I'm not too familiar with the intricacies of the Voting Rights Act, but I've heard this argument before. I remember reading Daily Kos' gerrymandering series, in which they produced fair maps for each state under the 2010 Census. I believe they had two different versions of a fair South Carolina map, and both of these showed the state with 2 majority-black, Democratic seats. One was based in Charleston, and the other in Columbia. Now that SC-01 has gone to the Democrats, and current trends suggest that it will become more Democratic in the years to come, it would certainly behoove Republicans to create the second black district. But of course, they may just decide to redraw SC-01 so that it includes more Republican territory in the Lowlands, or eliminate it altogether.

[BigVic]

South Carolina within polling error