A lot of the undecided vote actually comes from Independents, who have a largely unfavorable view of Graham
Democrats: 92% Harrison, 3% Graham, 1% someone else, 3% unsure (4% total other)
Republicans: 78% Graham, 5% Harrison, 11% someone else, 6% unsure (17% total other)
Independents: 46% Harrison, 28% Graham, 16% someone else, 10% unsure (26% total other)
Lindsey Graham fav among Indies: 21/68 (-47)
Lindsey Graham fav among Rs: 66/22 (+44)
Not to mention, Graham has a considerable 22% unfavorable rating among Republicans, so not necessarily all of them will go to him. Only 6% are unsure, 11% want someone else.
If a majority of Independents break for Harrison, and Rs somewhat come home for Graham, it's still a race worth watching.
Nearly all those Republicans are people who think Lindsey Graham isn't loyal enough to Trump but will vote for him anyway because he's still better to them than a Democrat. I'd also point out the indies are likely conservative leaning judging by the Presidential nominee favorables:
Trump 43 fav, 54 unfav with indies
Biden 30 fav, 61 unfav with indies
Favorables:
Lindsey Graham: 35/56 (-21)
Jaime Harrison: 35/28 (+7)
Tim Scott: 48/30 (+18)
Henry McMaster: 42/38 (+4)
Nikki Haley: 56/33 (+23)
Donald Trump: 51/47 (+4)
Joe Biden: 35/59 (-24)
The fact that Graham's favorables are where they are shows something IMO. And South Carolina is not a titanium R state, either.
I’d say a state that Democrats haven’t won since 1976 counts as Titanium R.
Anyway, nearly all the undecideds in this poll are Republicans. Safe R.
Since 1964, Democrats had never won Virginia until it went for Obama by six 2008. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972, but it very nearly went for Trump. Presidential winning streaks aren't perfect measures of whether or not a state is Titanium R.
South Carolina is still less Republican than, say, Alabama, Arkansas or Tennessee. Biden and Harrison won't win barring an absolutely huge collapse, but the races could be surprisingly close like the 2018 governor's race was. At the very least, it's marginally more likely to go D than Kentucky.
This is true. I suppose the better metric is that since 2000, every Republican except McCain has won the state by 10 and even McCain carried it by 9. That strikes me as pretty much titanium R.
