SC-Civiqs: TIE
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Author Topic: SC-Civiqs: TIE  (Read 2154 times)
Skye
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« on: May 27, 2020, 10:22:32 AM »

Graham (R, inc.) 42
Harrison (D) 42

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_SC_banner_book_2020_05_b68sg1x.pdf
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2020, 10:24:34 AM »

Nah, this won't be closer than high single digits, sadly.
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Gracile
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2020, 10:25:24 AM »

Seeing how Biden is at 42% in this poll (compared to Trump's 52%), it's clear that the undecideds here are more favorable to Graham.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2020, 10:26:24 AM »

There's a lot of undecideds here, for sure, but Graham being tied with Harrison is pretty horrific for him.

I'm probably one of the only people who is on board with sending $$$ to Harrison. Sure, support all the other Dems in senate races who really need it - but why not send a few $ to Harrison? He seems like our best bet to do *something* to try and win this seat, so why not try?

Judging by this poll, Graham clearly has a chunk who lean R but aren't fully there yet. And for an incumbent, that's not good.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2020, 10:29:05 AM »

Favorables:

Lindsey Graham: 35/56 (-21)
Jaime Harrison: 35/28 (+7)

Tim Scott: 48/30 (+18)
Henry McMaster: 42/38 (+4)
Nikki Haley: 56/33 (+23)

Donald Trump: 51/47 (+4)
Joe Biden: 35/59 (-24)

The fact that Graham's favorables are where they are shows something IMO. And South Carolina is not a titanium R state, either.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2020, 10:34:55 AM »

If Dems are going to spend money on a longshot race, dump McGrath and spend it here.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2020, 10:36:56 AM »

Progressive moderate said Harrison had no chance🤩🤩🤩
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2020, 10:41:32 AM »

There's a lot of undecideds here, for sure, but Graham being tied with Harrison is pretty horrific for him.

I'm probably one of the only people who is on board with sending $$$ to Harrison. Sure, support all the other Dems in senate races who really need it - but why not send a few $ to Harrison? He seems like our best bet to do *something* to try and win this seat, so why not try?

Judging by this poll, Graham clearly has a chunk who lean R but aren't fully there yet. And for an incumbent, that's not good.

Keep in mind a lot of those undecideds who aren't on board are conservatives who dislike Graham but will vote for him anyway.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2020, 10:42:47 AM »

Favorables:

Lindsey Graham: 35/56 (-21)
Jaime Harrison: 35/28 (+7)

Tim Scott: 48/30 (+18)
Henry McMaster: 42/38 (+4)
Nikki Haley: 56/33 (+23)

Donald Trump: 51/47 (+4)
Joe Biden: 35/59 (-24)

The fact that Graham's favorables are where they are shows something IMO. And South Carolina is not a titanium R state, either.

Iíd say a state that Democrats havenít won since 1976 counts as Titanium R.

Anyway, nearly all the undecideds in this poll are Republicans. Safe R.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2020, 10:43:12 AM »

Harrison's numbers are the same as Biden's in the Pres poll, I'm gonna go ahead and say the brunt of the undecideds are going to come home to Graham at the voting booth
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Governor tack50 (I-Lincoln)
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2020, 10:47:57 AM »

What we can get from this poll is that yes, the Democrat will get 42% of the vote.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2020, 10:56:19 AM »

Favorables:

Lindsey Graham: 35/56 (-21)
Jaime Harrison: 35/28 (+7)

Tim Scott: 48/30 (+18)
Henry McMaster: 42/38 (+4)
Nikki Haley: 56/33 (+23)

Donald Trump: 51/47 (+4)
Joe Biden: 35/59 (-24)

The fact that Graham's favorables are where they are shows something IMO. And South Carolina is not a titanium R state, either.

I’d say a state that Democrats haven’t won since 1976 counts as Titanium R.

Anyway, nearly all the undecideds in this poll are Republicans. Safe R.

Since 1964, Democrats had never won Virginia until it went for Obama by six 2008. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972, but it very nearly went for Trump. Presidential winning streaks aren't perfect measures of whether or not a state is Titanium R.

South Carolina is still less Republican than, say, Alabama, Arkansas or Tennessee. Biden and Harrison won't win barring an absolutely huge collapse, but the races could be surprisingly close like the 2018 governor's race was. At the very least, it's marginally more likely to go D than Kentucky.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2020, 10:59:45 AM »

A lot of the undecided vote actually comes from Independents, who have a largely unfavorable view of Graham

Democrats: 92% Harrison, 3% Graham, 1% someone else, 3% unsure (4% total other)
Republicans: 78% Graham, 5% Harrison, 11% someone else, 6% unsure (17% total other)
Independents: 46% Harrison, 28% Graham, 16% someone else, 10% unsure (26% total other)

Lindsey Graham fav among Indies: 21/68 (-47)
Lindsey Graham fav among Rs: 66/22 (+44)

Not to mention, Graham has a considerable 22% unfavorable rating among Republicans, so not necessarily all of them will go to him. Only 6% are unsure, 11% want someone else.

If a majority of Independents break for Harrison, and Rs somewhat come home for Graham, it's still a race worth watching.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2020, 11:09:55 AM »

A lot of the undecided vote actually comes from Independents, who have a largely unfavorable view of Graham

Democrats: 92% Harrison, 3% Graham, 1% someone else, 3% unsure (4% total other)
Republicans: 78% Graham, 5% Harrison, 11% someone else, 6% unsure (17% total other)
Independents: 46% Harrison, 28% Graham, 16% someone else, 10% unsure (26% total other)

Lindsey Graham fav among Indies: 21/68 (-47)
Lindsey Graham fav among Rs: 66/22 (+44)

Not to mention, Graham has a considerable 22% unfavorable rating among Republicans, so not necessarily all of them will go to him. Only 6% are unsure, 11% want someone else.

If a majority of Independents break for Harrison, and Rs somewhat come home for Graham, it's still a race worth watching.

Nearly all those Republicans are people who think Lindsey Graham isn't loyal enough to Trump but will vote for him anyway because he's still better to them than a Democrat. I'd also point out the indies are likely conservative leaning judging by the Presidential nominee favorables:

Trump 43 fav, 54 unfav with indies
Biden 30 fav, 61 unfav with indies

Favorables:

Lindsey Graham: 35/56 (-21)
Jaime Harrison: 35/28 (+7)

Tim Scott: 48/30 (+18)
Henry McMaster: 42/38 (+4)
Nikki Haley: 56/33 (+23)

Donald Trump: 51/47 (+4)
Joe Biden: 35/59 (-24)

The fact that Graham's favorables are where they are shows something IMO. And South Carolina is not a titanium R state, either.

Iíd say a state that Democrats havenít won since 1976 counts as Titanium R.

Anyway, nearly all the undecideds in this poll are Republicans. Safe R.

Since 1964, Democrats had never won Virginia until it went for Obama by six 2008. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972, but it very nearly went for Trump. Presidential winning streaks aren't perfect measures of whether or not a state is Titanium R.

South Carolina is still less Republican than, say, Alabama, Arkansas or Tennessee. Biden and Harrison won't win barring an absolutely huge collapse, but the races could be surprisingly close like the 2018 governor's race was. At the very least, it's marginally more likely to go D than Kentucky.

This is true. I suppose the better metric is that since 2000, every Republican except McCain has won the state by 10 and even McCain carried it by 9. That strikes me as pretty much titanium R.
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АndriуValeriovych
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2020, 11:21:43 AM »

Safe R -> Likely R, but it is potential sleeping race
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2020, 11:22:09 AM »

Including "someone else" as an option without naming an actual alternative candidate typically dilutes the incumbent's share of the vote, so yes, Graham likely has a modest lead here.

His approval rating is brutal, and I'm also rather fascinated by McMaster's low marks.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2020, 11:25:06 AM »

Likely R, bordering Safe R. This one isn't flipping, as much as I'd like to see Graham losing. AK and IA more more likely sleeper races than SC.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2020, 11:26:36 AM »

When the poll is weighed Graham is up by 16 points, but a close poll makes the DNC pour money into the race increasing it's competitivness. Due to that fact alone, the race is no longer Safe R.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2020, 11:28:32 AM »

Could end up within single digits, but still Safe R. Grahamís not losing.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2020, 11:30:18 AM »

This race remains Likely Republican, but this result is nevertheless a horrific one for Graham. His disapproval rating is particularly astonishing, but as I've said before, he has never been that popular in South Carolina. I think Graham will underperform Trump, and that Harrison stands a very good chance of coming within single digits. A Graham victory of around 7-9%, similar to McMaster's 2018 gubernatorial victory, would not surprise me at all.
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S019
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2020, 11:39:43 AM »

This might be where the race stands at the minute, but most of undecideds will break for Graham. This race is Safe R, and one of the most overhyped races of the cycle, along with KY.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2020, 11:41:54 AM »

Woah, this is an actual poll weighted by education & everything (Civiqs has a B/C from 538). This is easily the best poll for Harrison of the cycle.

It's obviously a bit of red herring since, in this same poll, Trump leads 52-42 & there's no chance Graham drags a full 10 points behind the top of the ticket. Seems like some conservative-leaners expressing their displeasure (also seen in Graham being underwater 35-56 in favorability numbers) by saying they're undecided but who will probably come home to Graham when it's actually time to vote.
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YE
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2020, 11:43:24 AM »

Final margin based on this poll: Graham 59, Harrison 41.
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Senator Laki
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2020, 02:59:38 PM »

Likely R. Good poll, but Graham will expand his lead in the autumn. All we can do, is hope and turn out and vote Trump and the Republicans away.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2020, 03:02:21 PM »

Likely R. Good poll, but Graham will expand his lead in the autumn. All we can do, is hope and turn out and vote Trump and the Republicans away.

Dont you realize, that we aren't in an average election yr where the economy is at 25% unemployment, not 3.5 percent.  If Tim Scott can win, so can Harrison
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