Which congressional district in Tennessee will flip first?
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Which congressional district in Tennessee will flip first?
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Poll
Question: Assuming the current districts will have more or less the same boundaries within the near future decades, which among the 9 districts will be more likely to flip to the opposing party?
#1
TN-01
 
#2
TN-02
 
#3
TN-03
 
#4
TN-04
 
#5
TN-05
 
#6
TN-06
 
#7
TN-07
 
#8
TN-08
 
#9
TN-09
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: Which congressional district in Tennessee will flip first?  (Read 881 times)
iceman
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« on: May 27, 2020, 05:42:13 AM »

Assuming the current districts will have more or less the same boundaries within the near future decades, which among the 9 districts will be more likely to flip to the opposing party?
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2020, 06:41:05 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 05:31:49 AM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

TN-05 is merely D+7 while the other districts are R+18 or more (or D+28 for the 9th district).

TN-05 is also ""only"" Clinton+18; while the next closest districts (a 3 way tie between the 2nd, 3rd and 8th districts) are already Trump+35

The answer seems obvious though none are flipping any time soon without gerrymandering
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2020, 05:18:40 PM »

TN-05 is the only one that's remotely close
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2020, 05:26:06 PM »

TN-05 will flip. Nashville gets cracked in 2022.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2020, 05:30:22 PM »

TN-5 is the answer because of redistricting.  If the current districts were largely maintained, probably still TN-5, but it would take something like an open seat in a Democratic president with a 20% approval rating's midterm.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2020, 05:38:04 PM »

Yeah, Nashville is being split in 2022, and it can be easily done while keeping the seats Safe R, TN-05 is the right answer.
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