If democrats wins Texas, will the GOP ever win the presidency again within 50 years?

[Orser67]

Of course.

A more interesting question is 20. Even if they do flip the Midwest, that probably isn't enough to counter Texas. I think they have to flip New York and Illinois, and that will take time and a lot of evolution from each parties base.

Yeah, this is what I was thinking too, especially if we changed/clarified the question to specify that TX would become "Titanium D" over night.

Historically, we have seen parties win 5 straight presidential elections, but never 13 straight. The closest we've come is the period from 1860 to 1928 when Republicans won 14 out of 18 elections.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes, the GOP just won't look anything like it does now.

[Balsanator03]

A Trump 2016 victory without texas would have to occur.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I can see TX flipping. I cannot see TX becoming a safe D state. In fact TX has such a large population that if it became Safe D, the popular vote would outright become Safe D or at worst likely D, with the median election being something like D+6. Also there is the countertrend of white people becoming more republican leaning.

Anyways I guess a hypothetical 2040 election might end up with a battleground map like this I think, even if you assume the rough current trends will keep going on for a while:



Now, this map is not great for the Republicans as they need to sweep all 4 states to get a win (or all except MN for a 269-269 tie) unless they can get a lean D state or CD to flip.

However, considering this map would probably also be somewhere on the order of D+5 in terms of the popular vote, this map would not be bad at all for a party that is losing badly.

In fact, in the hypothetical where the popular vote is tied nationwide I'd expect everything to move up a notch for the Republicans. So TX/PA/FL/MN would be Lean R; the Lean D states would be tossups, etc

In Texas, it looks like college educated white people are the ones getting more democratic, hispanics actually swung R in the rio grande valley. So their path to victory might be winning conservative hispanic democrats in south texas

[pbrower2a]

Twenty years after FDR crushed Herbert Hoover in the 1932 election, Dwight Eisenhower crushed Adlai Stevenson in a Presidential election.

[MarkD]

Yes, of course, they will. Why must it be the case that if Texas flips Democrat once, it won't ever flip back Republican again for the next 50 years? That's crazy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters always want tax cuts when the economy does well, once the economy start to get better, there will be more Rs elected, but with the demise of comfederate flags at NASCAR Races, the Reagan Revolution is over

[Flyersfan232]

Had we lost Texas and won New Hampshire in 2016 trump stills wins

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

[Roll Roons]

How would Democrats lose Arizona if they won Texas? Also I feel like Republicans would be more likely to flip Connecticut, New Jersey or Illinois than Oregon.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

How would Democrats lose Arizona if they won Texas? Also I feel like Republicans would be more likely to flip Connecticut, New Jersey or Illinois than Oregon.

Arizona is older, and Oregon is closer than CT, NJ, or IL.

[Non Swing Voter]

I was thinking about this earlier.  If Texas, Arizona and Georgia flip, then part of the GOP's problem going forward might be states with big cities in them as a proportion to the overall population (CA, NY, TX, GA, WA, MA, IL, CO, AZ, NV).   

Republicans could make up for this by winning Democratic states that aren't overwhelmingly Democratic but and don't have big cities relative to the population, such as Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Delaware.  They probably won't be able to flip states like Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut, or New Jersey though, because they are too tied to the metro area they are in.