AZ (HighGround Inc.) - Biden +2

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Biden - 47
Trump - 45
Undecided/Other - 8

400 LV, Conducted May 18-22
https://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/dead-heat-in-the-desert--trump-trails-biden-by-2-points-in-arizona

[redjohn]

Clearly a tossup in AZ. It could go either way, I would advise Democrats to not be too surprised if AZ went to Trump by a small margin. It'll be Democrats' to lose after this cycle.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Biden isnt 10 pts ahead any longer, trash the MSN polls and that UT poll of Biden being only 3 pts behind in UT, when along with Gov race, Trump and Rs are gonna win UT 70 to 30. Neutral yr

[Bidenworth2020]

Is it just me or is the way this is writen up really hacky? A lot of "dems in disarray" type stuff and constant mentions of "Trump's strategy working".

Also, it is absolutely insane that Biden leads in Maricopa by 12 points, 52-40.

[Devils30]

If Biden wins Maricopa by 12%. there's no chance Trump keeps it under 6 statewide.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

If Biden wins Maricopa by 12%. there's no chance Trump keeps it under 6 statewide.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When was the last Arizona poll that had Trump leading?

[GeorgiaModerate]

When was the last Arizona poll that had Trump leading?

OHPI had Trump+2 in December, and PPP had a tie in early January.

[wbrocks67]

Clearly a tossup in AZ. It could go either way, I would advise Democrats to not be too surprised if AZ went to Trump by a small margin. It'll be Democrats' to lose after this cycle.

Trump has not led an AZ poll all year.

[President Johnson]

Pure tossup/tilt Democratic.

Joe Biden is a good fit for a state with high elderly population, a rising Hispanic electorate and many suburbs. I think he and Mark Kelly will win Arizona.

[ON Progressive]

If Biden wins Maricopa by 12%. there's no chance Trump keeps it under 6 statewide.

He'd not even have a shot at keeping it within single digits in all likelihood. Non-Maricopa AZ is about 50/50 itself.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

Dont you realize that Sinema won 49/47 by 2, the exact margin of this poll

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

Dont you realize that Sinema won 49/47 by 2, the exact margin of this poll

She won Maricopa by 5.8. Biden is winning it by 12 in this poll.

[Red Willow]

Still predicting a narrow Trump win, I'm thinking 49-48.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still a tossup, but there are still good signs for Biden and Democrats here.

[SnowLabrador]

Still predicting a narrow Trump win, I'm thinking 49-48.

[MABA 2020]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

You underestimate Trumps power

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

You underestimate Trumps power

No, Trump! Don't try it.

[2016]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

Dont you realize that Sinema won 49/47 by 2, the exact margin of this poll

She won Maricopa by 5.8. Biden is winning it by 12 in this poll.

These Pollsters showing Biden winning Maricopa by Double Digits are totally crazy. What Electorate are they predicting for Christs sake?

If we go by the Exit Numbers from Arizona it looks like this:
2018
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate
Party ID was 38 % R / 32 % D / 31 % I
McSally won Voters 45+ 53-45; Sinema won Voters 65+ 51-48.

This Poll contradictory to some other Polls has Trump leading Biden by 8 Points among Voters 65 an older. If that's the case Trump should be up, not down.

2016
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president
Party ID was 32 % R / 28 % / 40 I

And now these Pollsters banking on having an even more D-friendly Electorate in AZ. That's nonsense!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Dead heat in the desert
What's interesting about Arizona is that Trump unlike Texas or so, Clinton did not improve on Obama's margin. However, there was a lot of 3rd party voters who voted Libertarian, causing Trump's margin to fall by 6 points for Romney. Now it is uncertain how these Libertarian voters go in 2020, but let's just assume they don't vote 3rd pary again and assuming they split 60/40 in favor of Biden, along with all of Stein's votes go for Biden.
Trump would still win by 1.4 points, but the race still got closer. Biden needs almost 65% of the Gary Johnson votes to win, which is possible. I guess we have to see in November.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Dead heat in the desert
What's interesting about Arizona is that Trump unlike Texas or so, Clinton did not improve on Obama's margin. However, there was a lot of 3rd party voters who voted Libertarian, causing Trump's margin to fall by 6 points for Romney. Now it is uncertain how these Libertarian voters go in 2020, but let's just assume they don't vote 3rd pary again and assuming they split 60/40 in favor of Biden, along with all of Stein's votes go for Biden.
Trump would still win by 1.4 points, but the race still got closer. Biden needs almost 65% of the Gary Johnson votes to win, which is possible. I guess we have to see in November.

Hillary only won the NPV by 2, so if Biden is up by 4-5 in the NPV, AZ should be tilt D in 2020.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Welp, guess it’s over for Trump. I mean, Biden has the High Ground.

Dont you realize that Sinema won 49/47 by 2, the exact margin of this poll

You realize that was a Star Wars joke, right?

[ProudModerate2]

Awesome.
Biden consistently showing a Tilt/Lean position for AZ.
Another state trump will need to spend time and resources to hold.

[MT Treasurer]

Unless Trump leads in the AZ polling average by at least 2% or so on election day, I’m expecting Biden to win it. Lean D, absolutely a must-win state for Biden, and definitely overrated in terms of its competitiveness.