Utah-Y2 Analytics: Trump +3
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Author Topic: Utah-Y2 Analytics: Trump +3  (Read 3557 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: May 26, 2020, 07:33:45 AM »
Utah: Y2 Analytics, May 9-15, 1078 LV (1-month change)

Trump 44 (-2)
Biden 41 (nc)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2020, 07:40:01 AM »
 Love
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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2020, 07:40:23 AM »
I don't know what to think of these polls showing a close-ish race in UT. On one hand, it's exceedingly likely that the vast majority of those "undecided" will end up voting for Trump. But at the same time, even the prospect of Biden getting over 40% in the state seems crazy.
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W
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2020, 07:41:45 AM »
That's a surprisingly small undecided gap.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2020, 07:41:55 AM »
Just wait till Uncle Joe sends Corn Pop to campaign in Utah. Trump's done for
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2020, 07:43:47 AM »
Utah is definitely a state to watch out for in the near future.

If these numbers are anywhere near true, Ben McAdams should be fine.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2020, 07:46:45 AM »
How?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2020, 07:47:19 AM »
The Booker Mormons are coming home.
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2020, 07:48:20 AM »
If Biden picks Booker: Safe D
Other VP picks: Lean R
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2020, 07:50:00 AM »
This poll is even more favourable for Biden than the daily Microsoft/MSN poll ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

It’s probably the only poll because Microsoft/MSN is ca. 10-15% biased for Biden in every other state.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2020, 07:54:28 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 26, 2020, 07:50:00 AM
This poll is even more favourable for Biden than the daily Microsoft/MSN poll ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

It’s probably the only poll because Microsoft/MSN is ca. 10-15% biased for Biden in every other state.

TRUMP is carrying UT 70 to 30 with Rs carrying the Gov race 70 to 30 MSN polls are online not phone polls and arent scientific
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2020, 07:57:55 AM »
Why are they giving us polls that arent determining control of Prez race and we still wont get a ME poll to see if Collins can still win.

Punditry assumes Collins cant win, and she can hold onto ME-2, while Bullock and Bollier are fairing better than both Gideon and Cunningham due to funding
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ajc0918
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2020, 08:08:08 AM »
Do you all think Utah will trend like Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have in the past? Or will the mormon vote keep it relatively conservative compared to other southwestern states? I have to think the impact of Californians moving to SLC will have an impact at some point.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2020, 08:12:16 AM »
Why is the number of sampled men 615 and the number of sampled women 398? Isn't that a huge discrepancy?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2020, 08:23:56 AM »
Quote from: The Ex-Factor on May 26, 2020, 08:12:16 AM
Why is the number of sampled men 615 and the number of sampled women 398? Isn't that a huge discrepancy?

That's Utah's entire population. 
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2020, 08:31:17 AM »
Polls in Utah were close in 2016 as well, some even showing Hillary winning the state.

I think the reason for it to be close now is because Trump has always been deeply unpopular in the state and that hasn't change in 3 years.  And also Trump's constant disdain for Mitt Romney, who remains a popular figure in the state despite his vote for impeachment...in fact, many Utahns probably supported Romney's impeachment vote.

Trump is obviously still a strong favorite there but it won't be a blow out even without a third party running.
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Roblox
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2020, 08:32:33 AM »
Wait was there some meme involving Cory Booker and mormons?
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2020, 08:40:50 AM »
Quote from: Cornpop Ethusiasts on May 26, 2020, 08:32:33 AM
Wait was there some meme involving Cory Booker and mormons?

Last year, this pollster had Booker leading Trump here in UT by double digits. I'm still not convinced it wasn't some kind of mistake on their part.
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Roblox
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2020, 08:49:09 AM »
Quote from: Skye on May 26, 2020, 08:40:50 AM
Quote from: Cornpop Ethusiasts on May 26, 2020, 08:32:33 AM
Wait was there some meme involving Cory Booker and mormons?

Last year, this pollster had Booker leading Trump here in UT by double digits. I'm still not convinced it wasn't some kind of mistake on their part.

Ah. Lol.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2020, 08:49:41 AM »
Lord knows, the mormans and I have had our disagreements, but if they come through for us this year, that will be something really special.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2020, 08:49:54 AM »
Republicans on March 3rd got a 61/39 split of the primary vote with a contested Dem primary and an uncontested R primary and yet I'm supposed to believe this state is close. I don't know what these people are doing but this will probably go down as the worst pollster of 2020.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
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« Reply #21 on: May 26, 2020, 09:04:45 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on May 26, 2020, 08:08:08 AM
Do you all think Utah will trend like Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have in the past? Or will the mormon vote keep it relatively conservative compared to other southwestern states? I have to think the impact of Californians moving to SLC will have an impact at some point.

Long term it will trend because there's barely any room for Ds to fail with Mormons. The difficulty for Ds in Utah is although they have a large and rapidly-trending urban area in SLC, suburbs will be very slow to move (still very mormon) and there's another large heavy, heavy R urban area in Provo/Utah County. It's like having Denver vs. Colorado Springs but Utah doesn't really have any Boulder/Ft. Collins-type areas to offset and the corresponding suburbs aren't nearly as friendly
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: May 26, 2020, 09:21:27 AM »
Funny, but I doubt Biden will win UT or even come close to 40%. It's still a deep red states and there is no major 3rd party candidate. It will have one of the highest 3rd party vote share for sure, at least in the race 4 prez. UT-Gov is Titanium R.
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BigVic
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« Reply #23 on: May 26, 2020, 09:24:31 AM »
A blue Utah is no chance in this generation.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24 on: May 26, 2020, 09:33:53 AM »
Quote from: BigVic on May 26, 2020, 09:24:31 AM
A blue Utah is no chance in this generation.

Not in this race, but it's not impossible if the malarkey is strong in a three-way split including a competitive United Utah Party.
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