"The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading" - Politico
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  "The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading" - Politico
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Author Topic: "The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading" - Politico  (Read 2081 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: May 26, 2020, 07:18:57 AM »
« edited: May 26, 2020, 11:07:28 AM by Senator YE »

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

Quote
“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever.

Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign.

Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic. “This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”


100,000 are dead but the most important story, of course, is that Democrats are panicked.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2020, 07:23:56 AM »

Politico sucks so much
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2020, 07:37:37 AM »

I refuse to click links like this. Clickbait is destroying American journalism.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2020, 08:26:28 AM »

WTF Politico?
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2020, 08:32:33 AM »

Of course it could be both improvement in the economy and still a problem for Trump. But Politico is too stupid to consider that.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2020, 08:33:49 AM »

Given the likely high prevalence of mail voting this year, many ballots will be sent out before these numbers are realized. By the end of October when GDP figures are released it is likely that over half the votes in Florida will have already been mailed in.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2020, 08:59:20 AM »

That’s so stupid. Bragging about a strong recovery when we still have tens of millions unemployed won’t impress anyone.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2020, 09:00:43 AM »

There's been like 5 concern trolling stories about how the Trump campaign is falling apart, and now there's 1 about the Democrats and everybody can't take it lol
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2020, 09:52:46 AM »

This is really stupid, especially for the fact that the economy is not just going to snap back to where it was in 2.4 seconds. Not even close.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2020, 11:32:27 AM »

LOL It's peak out of touch Beltway Brain-Melt to think people are going to care what the GDP numbers are if unemployment is still above 10% and stores and restaurants are closing left and right, many never to re-open.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2020, 11:49:32 AM »

Meh, I'd rather the economy rebound quickly so that things aren't too bad during Biden's term.  The real nightmare scenario is that we're in a protracted depression and Biden spends most of his presidency trying to fix it, without having the chance to pass any progressive priority legislation (public option, climate change stuff, paid leave, etc.).

That said, it's unlikely that we have a "V-shaped" recovery IMO. The problem is the virus, and you can't just wish it away by shopping. Most normal people are not going to risk their lives for frivolous things like shopping for clothes or going to restaurants or seeing movies, especially now that the internet allows you to do most of this stuff at home.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2020, 12:07:40 PM »

The economy had already rebounded by November 1980 and 1992 and we all know how much that helped the incumbents.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2020, 12:08:20 PM »

Another day, another Dems in Disarray article by the media...
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2020, 12:59:17 PM »

A Político article that doesn’t argue “Dems in disarray” would surprise me.
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Yoda
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2020, 06:18:33 PM »

That’s so stupid. Bragging about a strong recovery when we still have tens of millions unemployed won’t impress anyone.

Not to mention a Covid death toll somewhere around 200K by that time
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2020, 07:01:54 PM »

F*** off, Politico!
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2020, 10:11:25 PM »

LOL It's peak out of touch Beltway Brain-Melt to think people are going to care what the GDP numbers are if unemployment is still above 10% and stores and restaurants are closing left and right, many never to re-open.
That was my thought as well. The economy was in a huge bull market around the 2010 elections. People didn’t care because it was still well below the pre-recession peak and unemployment was still through the roof. Hence part of why the GOP made historic gains.
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Dac10
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2020, 11:24:58 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2020, 12:16:48 AM by Dac10 »

Most normal people are not going to risk their lives for frivolous things like shopping for clothes or going to restaurants or seeing movies, especially now that the internet allows you to do most of this stuff at home.

You have a lot more faith in “normal” people than I do lol. Unless there are literally bodies in the streets, people will go to all the places they can like normal. Especially the older demographics actually most vulnerable to the virus. Older Americans are the most likely group to act like nothing that happens in the media or outside world will actually effect them. You will never be able to stop the Boomers (especially Trump’s base) from (what they they view as) their God Given Right to go to the Cheesecake Factory and yell at the waitress.
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AGA
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2020, 11:50:12 PM »

Given the likely high prevalence of mail voting this year, many ballots will be sent out before these numbers are realized. By the end of October when GDP figures are released it is likely that over half the votes in Florida will have already been mailed in.
I don't think voters analyze economic data, lol.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2020, 11:57:26 PM »

Most normal people are not going to risk their lives for frivolous things like shopping for clothes or going to restaurants or seeing movies, especially now that the internet allows you to do most of this stuff at home.

You have a lot more faith in “normal” people than I do lol. Unless there are literally bodies in the streets, people will go to all the places they can like normal. Especially the older demographics actually most vulnerable to the virus. Older Americans are the most likely group to act like nothing that happens in the media or outside world will actually effect them. You will never be able to stop the Boomers (especially Trump’s base) from (they they view as) their God given Right to go to the Cheesecake Factory and yell at the waitress.

I saw an elderly man in a mask in the supermarket a couple weeks ago. I thought about how many on this forum say how Biden is "surging with 65+".

The guy turns around and is decked out in Trump 2020 gear.

Just anecdotal, but don't be surprised if the Biden charm doesn't translate to older whites as much as people think.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2020, 12:12:02 AM »

Quote from: Politico
Instead, [Furman] believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

This isn't just a natural disaster. This is different. When a hurricane comes through, you'd feel just as comfortable going to Disney/Vegas/the movies as soon as they reopen. Looking at any kind of polling shows that consumer confidence is pretty f**king shot.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2020, 12:36:27 AM »

Quote from: Politico
Instead, [Furman] believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

This isn't just a natural disaster. This is different. When a hurricane comes through, you'd feel just as comfortable going to Disney/Vegas/the movies as soon as they reopen. Looking at any kind of polling shows that consumer confidence is pretty f**king shot.

I agree that discretionary spending among the consumer will be down.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2020, 06:14:07 AM »

Consumer confidence isn't nearly as correlated with economic growth as is generally presumed. Job creation and entrepreneurship comes from businesses: what remains to be seen is how many survive the shutdowns (also, the banking decreases as a result of government intervention in the market).
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2020, 07:38:18 AM »

Most normal people are not going to risk their lives for frivolous things like shopping for clothes or going to restaurants or seeing movies, especially now that the internet allows you to do most of this stuff at home.

You have a lot more faith in “normal” people than I do lol. Unless there are literally bodies in the streets, people will go to all the places they can like normal. Especially the older demographics actually most vulnerable to the virus. Older Americans are the most likely group to act like nothing that happens in the media or outside world will actually effect them. You will never be able to stop the Boomers (especially Trump’s base) from (they they view as) their God given Right to go to the Cheesecake Factory and yell at the waitress.

I saw an elderly man in a mask in the supermarket a couple weeks ago. I thought about how many on this forum say how Biden is "surging with 65+".

The guy turns around and is decked out in Trump 2020 gear.

Just anecdotal, but don't be surprised if the Biden charm doesn't translate to older whites as much as people think.

On the off chance that this anecdote is true, it still wouldn't have any relevance to discussions of broader trends in the electorate. I don't understand why people feel the need to cite an unverifiable example of an individual voter they claim to have seen once as though it's data we should be basing our assessment of electoral politics on.
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Illini Moderate
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2020, 07:52:46 AM »

Most normal people are not going to risk their lives for frivolous things like shopping for clothes or going to restaurants or seeing movies, especially now that the internet allows you to do most of this stuff at home.

You have a lot more faith in “normal” people than I do lol. Unless there are literally bodies in the streets, people will go to all the places they can like normal. Especially the older demographics actually most vulnerable to the virus. Older Americans are the most likely group to act like nothing that happens in the media or outside world will actually effect them. You will never be able to stop the Boomers (especially Trump’s base) from (they they view as) their God given Right to go to the Cheesecake Factory and yell at the waitress.

I saw an elderly man in a mask in the supermarket a couple weeks ago. I thought about how many on this forum say how Biden is "surging with 65+".

The guy turns around and is decked out in Trump 2020 gear.

Just anecdotal, but don't be surprised if the Biden charm doesn't translate to older whites as much as people think.

I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if Biden's surge with older whites is temporary. After 2016 I'm constantly expecting large shifts in the polling that thankfully hasn't materialized yet. However, you seeing an old guy decked out in Trump gear doesn't exactly get me nervous. I see that fairly often, and have since 2015
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