MD (Gonzales)- Biden +24 (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 11:42:46 AM
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  MD (Gonzales)- Biden +24 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MD (Gonzales)- Biden +24  (Read 1420 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: May 26, 2020, 12:22:36 AM »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2020, 06:42:20 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2020, 06:49:31 AM by LimoLiberal »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.

Speaking of PG, one weird thing I noticed is that Republicans consistently get lower percentages of the vote there than in Baltimore City. This was true of Trump, Romney, McCain and even Hogan. What's the deal?

Baltimore City is 61% black just like PG, but the non-AA population isn't as Democratic; only 5% Hispanic. PG non-AA population is 15% Hispanic. That probably makes up the difference right there. Hard to say if the whites lean more Democratic in PG or Baltimore, you have conservative-leaning ethnic whites in South/Southeast Baltimore, while in PG there are still whiter areas on the border with Anne Arundel and Charles where the D margins are closer.

Fun fact: College Park (UMD campus) is one of the least Democratic areas of PG county, despite Democrats getting 70-80% of the vote in every precinct.
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