MD (Gonzales)- Biden +24
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  MD (Gonzales)- Biden +24
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Author Topic: MD (Gonzales)- Biden +24  (Read 1231 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: May 25, 2020, 11:31:16 PM »

Biden-59
Trump-35

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200526_MD.pdf

Keep in mind that this pollster usually undershoots dems by a ton (Had Hogan up 20-30 in the gov race)
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2020, 12:22:36 AM »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2020, 01:09:45 AM »

Could be a little too R-friendly, but for all the talk of Democrats having hit a "ceiling" in CA in 2016 and Democratic support being maxed out there now, Iíd say that this state fits the description far better than CA.
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GM Team Member WB
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2020, 01:17:12 AM »

ok but why poll maryland
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2020, 01:27:21 AM »


They are a local firm.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2020, 01:54:56 AM »

They are afraid to poll ME, they need to see if Collins is winning or not
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2020, 05:41:19 AM »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.

When Biden is nearly 90% with the black vote, and Trump is at 8%, that seems like splitting hairs a bit, when it could easily be in the MoE, and those 6% undecided.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2020, 05:55:22 AM »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.

Speaking of PG, one weird thing I noticed is that Republicans consistently get lower percentages of the vote there than in Baltimore City. This was true of Trump, Romney, McCain and even Hogan. What's the deal?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2020, 06:04:47 AM »

Biden will easily be able to clear 60% in Maryland, Trump may not even get the 35% that's suggested here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2020, 06:14:26 AM »

Should be noted that this poll has Trump's approval at 40/58. Trump lost MD in 2016 by 26%. There's no way his approval is -18, so this poll is probably really underselling Biden.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2020, 06:23:14 AM »

Could be a little too R-friendly, but for all the talk of Democrats having hit a "ceiling" in CA in 2016 and Democratic support being maxed out there now, Iíd say that this state fits the description far better than CA.

I donít think Maryland is the best candidate for maxed out Blue state either. Dems have plenty of room for growth in places like Frederick County and getting some Eastern Shore presence back, which they did in the 2018 Senate race and the MD-01 House race. New Jersey or Hawaii seem to fit that niche best.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2020, 06:42:20 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2020, 06:49:31 AM by LimoLiberal »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.

Speaking of PG, one weird thing I noticed is that Republicans consistently get lower percentages of the vote there than in Baltimore City. This was true of Trump, Romney, McCain and even Hogan. What's the deal?

Baltimore City is 61% black just like PG, but the non-AA population isn't as Democratic; only 5% Hispanic. PG non-AA population is 15% Hispanic. That probably makes up the difference right there. Hard to say if the whites lean more Democratic in PG or Baltimore, you have conservative-leaning ethnic whites in South/Southeast Baltimore, while in PG there are still whiter areas on the border with Anne Arundel and Charles where the D margins are closer.

Fun fact: College Park (UMD campus) is one of the least Democratic areas of PG county, despite Democrats getting 70-80% of the vote in every precinct.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2020, 07:47:47 AM »

RE- Black vote, keep in mind that this pollster also had Trump at 13% approval among African-Americans. I find that extremely doubtful (along with his 40/58 overall approval in the state), but if it were true, it would make sense that he makes some gains with black voters.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2020, 08:06:25 AM »

Isnít this the pollster that had Delaware tied or at least close?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2020, 11:42:19 AM »

New Poll: Maryland President by Gonzales Research on 2020-05-23

Summary: D: 59%, R: 35%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2020, 06:57:35 PM »

Biden is sure to do better here.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2020, 09:03:37 PM »

Clinton won Maryland by 26 points, so this is pretty in line with expectations if a bit low, possibly a reflection of this pollster's pro-R bias.

What's interesting to me is that they have Biden winning black voters 86-8. No exit poll in Maryland in 2016, but PG county (61% AA) voted Clinton 88-8, meaning she probably was in the mid-90s with black voters... perhaps this number indicates some slippage for Biden. It could also just be a MOE thing.

Speaking of PG, one weird thing I noticed is that Republicans consistently get lower percentages of the vote there than in Baltimore City. This was true of Trump, Romney, McCain and even Hogan. What's the deal?

White liberals in the DC area are more Democratic than even big city Blacks.

This... isn't exactly right. PG County is dominated by middle-class blacks, who have pretty high turnout rates. Baltimore also has a large albeit diminishing amount of white ethnics (Poles, Irish, Italian, Greek).
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