Western NE Gov Trended D? Why?
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  Western NE Gov Trended D? Why?
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Author Topic: Western NE Gov Trended D? Why?  (Read 666 times)
walleye26
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« on: May 25, 2020, 10:40:16 PM »

Hey everyone, I was reading a cook article and it looks like western NE became more Democrat in 2018 than in 2014. Why did this happen? Was Krist from there?
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2020, 10:56:15 PM »

My guess is that it was just a swing towards the Democrats because the farm crisis and it being a better year for them overall.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2020, 12:20:29 AM »

Often can just happen due to disparity in spending in Media markets. Best example is St croix county and the NW D 3, Wisconsin 2008 which trended R in 2008 due to excessive spending in the Minneapolis and Duluth markets
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Perlen vor den Schweinen
kongress
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2020, 01:59:36 AM »

Some of these counties have a nonzero population of several groups that swung Democratic as a whole in 2018. Counties like Scotts Bluff have a fairly large Hispanic population.

The two counties that in Western Nebraska that had the largest swing in the 2018 Gubernatorial election, Dawes and Sheridan, have a "sizable" college population and Native population, respectively.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2020, 05:44:12 AM »

A. The country as a whole trended leftwards from 2014, with rare exception.

B. Dead cat bounce.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2020, 02:04:39 AM »

Dead cat bounce.
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2020, 06:07:09 PM »

Trended D would imply beyond the national swing from 2014-2018 despite what others have said.

Dead cat bounce and demographics may be a part of this, but in western NE panhandle all counties either trended Dem or slightly Repub, but in central NE, where was a very strong Republican swing/trend.
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