Can Trump's coattails carry Lewis to victory in Minnesota?
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  Can Trump's coattails carry Lewis to victory in Minnesota?
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Author Topic: Can Trump's coattails carry Lewis to victory in Minnesota?  (Read 1070 times)
Woody
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« on: May 25, 2020, 03:41:07 PM »

How strong does Trump's coattails/margin of victory have to be to carry Jason Lewis to victory? Or does Lewis overperfrom Trump?
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2020, 03:47:44 PM »

Trump is going to lose Minnesota.
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Astatine
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2020, 04:12:16 PM »

Tina Smith is not going to lose unless it's a GOP landslide. She is a quite uncontroversial incumbent with relatively decent approval ratings.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2020, 04:28:17 PM »

Smith's margin of victory or defeat will mirror the Presidential race.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2020, 04:42:23 PM »

Stop acting like an imbecile, Woodbury, and I won't need to constantly respond to you with a clown sheep.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2020, 04:44:20 PM »

In the very unlikely event that Trump wins MN, it probably still wouldn’t be enough for Lewis.
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2020, 05:31:45 PM »

No, and Trump won't win Minnesota, if he does, maybe, but Lewis is also quite a weak candidate.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2020, 05:36:33 PM »

My guess is that Lewis runs behind Trump by 2-3 points, but the expectation that Trump will win the presidency no matter what polls indicate will hurt downballot Republicans like Lewis as expectations of an HRC presidency hurt downballot Democrats in 2016. Therefore, if Trump actually pulls ahead of Biden in MN, I expect he'd need to be ahead by 4-5 to pull Lewis over the line.

The Senate race is likely D and the presidential contest is lean D.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2020, 09:44:20 PM »

Trump has to win MN by like 5 points or more to carry Lewis across the line which is unlikely IMO
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2020, 11:47:26 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2020, 11:50:53 PM by Epaminondas »

The better question is: can Lewis' coattails carry Trump to victory in Minnesota?


My guess is that Lewis runs behind Trump by 2-3 points, but the expectation that Trump will win the presidency no matter what polls indicate will hurt downballot Republicans like Lewis as expectations of an HRC presidency hurt downballot Democrats in 2016.

Oh how we can dream.
But Republicans always vote downballot. They understand its power.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2020, 05:41:42 AM »

Honestly, can't see Lewis winning. Smith is going to do better than Biden most likely so Trump would not only have to win but win by a 3-4% margin.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2020, 05:46:02 AM »

How strong do Bidens's coattails/margin of victory have to be to carry Amy McGrath to victory? Or does McGrath overperform Biden?
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2020, 07:43:05 AM »

What coattails?
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2020, 10:12:36 PM »

Jason Lewis is a joke.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2020, 01:11:07 PM »

Tina Smith is gonna outrun Joe Biden, and I think the DFLers on the Iron Range will probably stick with both of them. If Trump won Minnesota by 5%, then I could see it. But again, I think Biden/Smith will both do quite a bit better in rural Minnesota than Hillary did
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funjack73
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2020, 08:21:14 PM »

There will be a good number of Trump-Smith voters. And I really don't see Trump winning Minnesota.
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