I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again
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  I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again
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Author Topic: I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again  (Read 2781 times)
jake_arlington
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« Reply #25 on: May 25, 2020, 06:29:08 PM »

1) "Polling was wrong in 2016 as well"

Yes they were

2) "Biden is a worse candidate than Hillary"

I rarely see this take, but sure, some have said so. Tbc I don't believe it, but he certainly is no *better* of a candidate overall than she was (year of the election, and therefore populace's mood, notwithstanding).

3) "Democrats haven’t learned their lesson from 2016"

This is very true

4) "Democrats will struggle to win because of polarization and [insert other random buzzwords here]"

Again, I don't know of anybody claiming this

As for "all the post-Nov. 2018 takes on Florida," I have always been very insistent the state's been a tossup (for this year's presidential race) from the start, and it doesn't look as though that will be about to change anytime soon.

Midterms are not destiny.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2020, 06:32:58 PM »

That is, it's not a tossup right now; Biden is a clear favorite right now.  That does not mean Biden is guaranteed to win.  However, Trump not only has to pull off the same late charge for a second time, he's got to make up ground before then to even get within range.
But, that is the thing...though: the less time that's left, the more that can change.

That's why if you gave me the option, I would rather be 5 points up a week out from Election Day, than 10 points up with 6 months still left to go, for instance.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2020, 06:33:13 PM »

I disagree with the notion that Biden is a weaker candidate tbh, he is a gaffe machine and progressives aren't super fond of him, but at the same time Biden doesn't have the negative ratings that Clinton did, he also is more likable than her.

I do agree that some red avatars here are a bit rosy about the race, to an extend some judgement is being clouded as to the status of the race, but it's hard not to say Biden is in a much better position than Hillary was at this point in time. Clinton and Trump traded leads throughout the year, while so far this year, Biden has consistently led and some points by good margins.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2020, 06:33:13 PM »

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance. Clinton was up by more, but the thing is that last minute we could see a major Trump revival in the polls. The thing is that the polls may have been wrong in 2016, but they showed Trump's rise late in the game.

Last minute Trump boost in AZ

Last minute Trump boost in MI

Last minute Trump boost in PA

Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.

Clinton had the late momentum in 2016 though
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #29 on: May 25, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »



Today's date highlighted.



This year.

People keep saying "Clinton was ahead by so much more" or "You can't trust Biden's lead, don't you remember how much Clinton was up by?"

I do remember. And Biden isn't down to Trump right now like Hillary Clinton was.

Way to cherry-pick the exact like 4 days out of 200 for which Trump was beating Clinton during the 2016 campaign (very irrelevant and ages-ago for out purposes, today)
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Skunk
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« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2020, 06:39:52 PM »

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.
That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.
I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.
This really isn't all that prevalent here but a lot of college students and online Twitter leftists that supported Bernie keep repeating this narrative that Biden is going to lose in a landslide. It's an obviously small portion of the electorate, but it is the dominant take in certain spaces.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #31 on: May 25, 2020, 07:06:36 PM »

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.
That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.
I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.
This really isn't all that prevalent here but a lot of college students and online Twitter leftists that supported Bernie keep repeating this narrative that Biden is going to lose in a landslide. It's an obviously small portion of the electorate, but it is the dominant take in certain spaces.

Yeah, I was about to say this. The most delusional takes on the election I've seen have come from twitter leftists convinced Joe Biden is the worst presidential candidate in modern history. Liz Bruenig retweeted a thread about how Biden is destined to lose New Jersey.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #32 on: May 25, 2020, 07:41:35 PM »


I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what.


Hasn't he said he feels the race is a tossup currently?

Yes but he's also convinced that the economy will rebound to where it was in February by August
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« Reply #33 on: May 25, 2020, 07:41:55 PM »

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.
That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.
I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.
This really isn't all that prevalent here but a lot of college students and online Twitter leftists that supported Bernie keep repeating this narrative that Biden is going to lose in a landslide. It's an obviously small portion of the electorate, but it is the dominant take in certain spaces.

I try not to pay attention to children.
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« Reply #34 on: May 25, 2020, 07:52:56 PM »

If Sanders were the nominee the graph would look just like the Clinton one with wild swings.  Democrats were smart this year, they just wanted this idiot gone and it looks like Biden has a good chance at delivering that barring some huge change.  I really don't see how things change though.  Biden was up big before the pandemic and he's up big during the pandemic. 
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #35 on: May 25, 2020, 08:37:27 PM »

If Sanders were the nominee the graph would look just like the Clinton one with wild swings.  Democrats were smart this year, they just wanted this idiot gone and it looks like Biden has a good chance at delivering that barring some huge change.  I really don't see how things change though.  Biden was up big before the pandemic and he's up big during the pandemic. 

Erm nah, there's bound to be *way* more key Biden/Trump swing voters than Sanders/Trump ones (in the latter contest, it's a turnout battle, whereas the former relies far more on persuasion)

Meaning that a hypothetical Bernie nomination would have resulted in far *less* volatility and/or movement, instead giving us stabler polling overall.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2020, 08:38:22 PM »

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.
That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.
I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.
This really isn't all that prevalent here but a lot of college students and online Twitter leftists that supported Bernie keep repeating this narrative that Biden is going to lose in a landslide. It's an obviously small portion of the electorate, but it is the dominant take in certain spaces.

I try not to pay attention to children.

Yup, definitely not too many of these people I've seen whom to come across.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2020, 08:40:32 PM »

I disagree with the notion that Biden is a weaker candidate tbh, he is a gaffe machine and progressives aren't super fond of him, but at the same time Biden doesn't have the negative ratings that Clinton did, he also is more likable than her.

I do agree that some red avatars here are a bit rosy about the race, to an extend some judgement is being clouded as to the status of the race, but it's hard not to say Biden is in a much better position than Hillary was at this point in time. Clinton and Trump traded leads throughout the year, while so far this year, Biden has consistently led and some points by good margins.
Well tbf, Clinton and Trump didn't trade leads much of the times if at all, according to the above graph (which is probably already more favorable toward him than most should be.)

And definitely, not up until this point on the campaign (pre-general, she led by more nationally) that's for sure.
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Badger
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« Reply #38 on: May 25, 2020, 08:52:32 PM »

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

This. While Trump would get soundly thrashed if the election were today, the key question is what will the economy look like 5 months from now. About the only answer one can be reasonably certain of is " tangibly different from now".
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #39 on: May 26, 2020, 05:08:57 AM »

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.

That's pretty much exhibited by only one or two posters. You're arguing with almost no one here. Biden is in good shape - right now.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #40 on: May 26, 2020, 05:13:41 AM »

2016 was so volatile. Hillary got a cycle of good news (usually Trump being awful), rose in the polls, her rise faded, rinse, repeat.

That was moreso applied to Trump. You can see the dramatic rise in the polls due to the RNC, DNC, Trump wrapping up the nomination (this period 4 years ago), Trump's tape (October drop). We're unlikely to see that kind of volatility this time because the two candidates already have their bases locked up. I think my hypothesis on the polls in 2016 is that Trump's drops were really voters that were always going to vote for him, but went back to undecided because they didn't like what they saw at times. What is not explained is that after the gap closing with Comey letter Clinton again opened up a wide lead (a lead that would've been wider if not for that outlier LA Times poll, btw) but then went on to lose the election by the same margin she had at the Comey letter time.
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American2020
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« Reply #41 on: May 26, 2020, 05:29:20 AM »

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #42 on: May 26, 2020, 05:31:37 AM »

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance. Clinton was up by more, but the thing is that last minute we could see a major Trump revival in the polls. The thing is that the polls may have been wrong in 2016, but they showed Trump's rise late in the game.

Last minute Trump boost in AZ

Last minute Trump boost in MI

Last minute Trump boost in PA

Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.

Too many people ignored these polls. A lot of them were Republican internals that got the classic "JUNK!!!" response. I'm convinced even if we do see a tightening of the polls sometime in the future, people will not be receptive to it because of their own biases, and the sad part is they won't even realize it. The people that like the downplay the inaccuracy of the polls argue the polls are not that far off compared to historical standards. This is true, HOWEVER, they shouldn't consistently be off in one direction. A majority of state polls in 2016 and 2018 underestimated Republicans, they were not equally off like they "should" be. That is indicative of a systematic problem, not a typical polling error. Journalists and pollsters tend to ignore these issues too much, because the reality is, almost all of them are left-leaning and some of them don't know or understand a single person who's a Trump supporter or who has no college degree. Part of it I don't think is their fault, non-response error is becoming more common among demographics who are poorer and don't have a college degree. This I think is why South Carolina Dem primary polling is always so off.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #43 on: May 26, 2020, 09:00:01 AM »

Its an axiom that undecideds break away from the incumbent at the end.

In 2016, Hillary was kind of like the incumbent, which Biden isnt.

Of course, this is moderated by enthusiasm, which Trump voters have and Biden voters dont. This might matter even more if COVID-19 is still around.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #44 on: May 26, 2020, 09:27:21 AM »

Its an axiom that undecideds break away from the incumbent at the end.

In 2016, Hillary was kind of like the incumbent, which Biden isnt.

Of course, this is moderated by enthusiasm, which Trump voters have and Biden voters dont. This might matter even more if COVID-19 is still around.


This didn't happen in 2004 or 2012, however. In 2012, the opposite happened. I don't even know why that's regarded as common knowledge.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #45 on: May 26, 2020, 09:56:46 AM »

Just like how Dukakis's mythical lead gets higher and later every year
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« Reply #46 on: May 27, 2020, 07:59:33 AM »

It's less objective but "the Biden campaign is repeating the same mistakes as Hillary's" is also pretty much nonsense.

Biden is savagely attacking Trump's record and 100k deaths under his watch while Trump's campaign is making fun of his gaffes and thirty year old votes. Which campaign sounds more like Hillary's attacking Trump for saying mean things?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #47 on: May 30, 2020, 07:02:41 PM »

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance.
1 down, 1 more summer shocker to go
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: May 30, 2020, 09:02:19 PM »

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McGarnagle
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« Reply #49 on: May 31, 2020, 12:08:51 AM »

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance.
1 down, 1 more summer shocker to go

It's still spring
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