Could Biden deny Trump a clean county sweep in all states?

[Smash255]

Dakotas, WY 3 states, Trump will win every county

Not a chance of Trump sweeping any of those.  He lost Teton County Wyoming by 26, and the heavily Native American Counties in the Dakotas by a much larger margin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden will get a clean sweep in Rhode Island too and possibly Connecticut, but that's most likely it. Northeastern Vermont would be possible for Sanders but unlikely for him.

[Calthrina950]

Biden will get a clean sweep in Rhode Island too and possibly Connecticut, but that's most likely it. Northeastern Vermont would be possible for Sanders but unlikely for him.

I doubt that even Sanders could sweep Vermont. He won Essex County with a 49-45% plurality in 2018, and that was while he was getting 67% in the state, 10 points higher than what Hillary Clinton received there two years earlier. Moreover, Patrick Leahy lost Essex County in 2016, and Trump got a majority there, winning it 51-35% while receiving the lowest percentage a Republican has ever obtained in Vermont. So Essex County pretty much precludes Vermont from being an all-county Democratic sweep this year.

[mileslunn]

I think West Virginia is a Trump sweep.  Oklahoma could go either way, but if Biden wins any county in Oklahoma, it will be Oklahoma County.  Only other state Trump might sweep is Nebraska but I suspect based on current political climate; Biden wins Douglas and Lancaster counties and maybe even Thurston County depending on turnout.

As for Biden sweeps, Hawaii and Massachusetts are pretty much givens.  Rhode Island and Vermont possible while Connecticut and New Hampshire possible like Obama in 08 but long shots.

[Calthrina950]

I think West Virginia is a Trump sweep.  Oklahoma could go either way, but if Biden wins any county in Oklahoma, it will be Oklahoma County.  Only other state Trump might sweep is Nebraska but I suspect based on current political climate; Biden wins Douglas and Lancaster counties and maybe even Thurston County depending on turnout.

As for Biden sweeps, Hawaii and Massachusetts are pretty much givens.  Rhode Island and Vermont possible while Connecticut and New Hampshire possible like Obama in 08 but long shots.

Trump will definitely not sweep Nebraska. Hillary Clinton won Douglas and Lancaster Counties last time, and we've seen polls indicating that Biden is up by a substantial margin in NE-02, which means he is also leading comfortably in Douglas County. Nevertheless, I do think that Biden can win back Kent County and sweep Rhode Island, so that gives him three states where he can have an all-county sweep.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably not. I still think that Donald Trump will carry all counties in West Virginia, and possibly Kentucky as well.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Probably not. I still think that Donald Trump will carry all counties in West Virginia, and possibly Kentucky as well.

Kentucky?

Trump didn't even win all KY counties in 2016. Jefferson County (Louisville) and Fayette County (Lexington) are definitely NOT voting for Trump.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Unpopular opinion: I think Biden is more likely to win Monongalia County, WV than to win Oklahoma County, OK.

[Real Texan Politics]

“Anybody who can go down 3,000 feet in a mine can sure as hell learn to program as well... Anybody who can throw coal into a furnace can learn how to program, for God’s sake!” - Joe Biden from a rally in a coal mining town in New Hampshire (source: https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/education/476391-biden-tells-coal-miners-to-learn-to-code)

Just by that quote alone, I don't see him winning a single county in West Virginia. And I'm surprised he's up by double digits in Pennsylvania as well.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

West Virginia is probably too big of a lift, and Oklahoma is no better than a tossup in my opinion.

Ironically, if he wins, even if it was to be only extremely narrowly Trump might have a better chance at winning a county in every state.

The only state where Trump failed to win a county was Massachussets, where the closest county was Plymouth County at Clinton+7. That county was won by the R senate candidate while losing the state by 3 points less than Trump (60-36 instead of 60-33).

So if Trump rebounded compared to 2016, even by just a bit in Massachussets he might have a shot at winning the county, but it is very much unlikely.

Of course with Trump being down by around 8 as of now, this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But if say, Trump won the Popular Vote, he might win a county in every state.

As for places where Biden might add clean sweeps, other than Rhode Island there aren't that many of them. VT and CT are the next 2 in line, but Litchfield and Essex are probably too Republican for Biden to win. Delaware might be doable if Biden gets a big "favourite son" effect but it is also an unlikely one.

This is incorrect. Clinton also won every county in Hawaii. No Republican has won a county in that state since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (which was also the last time that Hawaii voted Republican in a presidential election), and the closest county was Honolulu County, which Clinton won 61-32% over Trump. Honolulu County is the state's most populous county, and has been its most Republican one throughout it's history. So Trump's chances of winning at least one county in every state are virtually nonexistent.

Oh yeah forgot about Hawaii. Yeah Hawaii makes it impossible for Trump, even if he did win big.

He just has to appeal to the former leper voters of Kalawao County. Surely he can at least manage to expand his appeal enough to do that, right?

[MATTROSE94]

Probably not. I still think that Donald Trump will carry all counties in West Virginia, and possibly Kentucky as well.

Kentucky?

Trump didn't even win all KY counties in 2016. Jefferson County (Louisville) and Fayette County (Lexington) are definitely NOT voting for Trump.

Jefferson and Fayette were somewhat close in 2016, so Donald Trump definitely had a chance to win them in 2016 given his high popularity in Kentucky. Conversely, I think that Joe Biden will sweep all the counties in Massachusetts, Delaware, and Hawaii. There is also a small chance that Joe Biden could sweep all the counties in California as well if he is having a great election night.

[Roll Roons]

Probably not. I still think that Donald Trump will carry all counties in West Virginia, and possibly Kentucky as well.

Kentucky?

Trump didn't even win all KY counties in 2016. Jefferson County (Louisville) and Fayette County (Lexington) are definitely NOT voting for Trump.

Jefferson and Fayette were somewhat close in 2016, so Donald Trump definitely had a chance to win them in 2016 given his high popularity in Kentucky. Conversely, I think that Joe Biden will sweep all the counties in Massachusetts, Delaware, and Hawaii. There is also a small chance that Joe Biden could sweep all the counties in California as well if he is having a great election night.

There is no way he sweeps every county in California. Sure, he'll win big in the Bay Area, LA, San Diego, and probably Orange, but a lot of those inland counties are super conservative and Trumpy. Also I think Sussex in Delaware is probably too far gone even for him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jefferson County was won by Hillary by 13 points, Fayette by almost ten. Neither was somewhat close.

Strong chance this guy is a troll though.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think Trump will get all the counties in West Virginia,

[Camaro33]

Very unlikely Trump loses a county in OK or WV.

[One Term Floridian]

Definitely possible if this lead keeps up. Monongalia County, WV & Oklahoma County, OK are not that far of a reach with even Hillary getting close to within 10 points in each. They both seem to be trending very Dem as well

[Calthrina950]

Very unlikely Trump loses a county in OK or WV.

I'd disagree with you about Oklahoma. A county win for Biden there is definitely within reach, given what we know, and what we've seen, about OK-05.

[One Term Floridian]

Dakotas, WY 3 states, Trump will win every county

I'll give you the Dakotas, but it's clear that Kanye is going to eat into Trump's numbers in WY since that's his base of operations

[kph14]

Dakotas, WY 3 states, Trump will win every county

I'll give you the Dakotas, but it's clear that Kanye is going to eat into Trump's numbers in WY since that's his base of operations

Trump would not even win all counties in South Dakota if he won in a landslide. Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota, was literally Obama's best county in 2012. He won it 93-6.