Rate CA-21

[Woody]

In my opinion, one of the most likely seats to flip for the republicans this year. Cox didn't break 40% in the primary, and that was with him being an incumbent and a competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, and now Cox is embroiled in a scandal due to his unpaid taxes.

I rate this race Likely R, Valadao +6.

[S019]

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup

Cox 52-46

[SevenEleven]

In my opinion, one of the most likely seats to flip for the republicans this year. Cox didn't break 40% in the primary, and that was with him being an incumbent and a competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, and now Cox is embroiled in a scandal due to his unpaid taxes.

I rate this race Likely R, Valadao +6.

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Lean D

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R flip.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely D 53-47 Cox

[Gracile]

Likely D. This was one of the most overlooked races of 2018 and the Democrats still won.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean D. Even Hillary won the district by like 15 points, and Biden will likely perform better, carrying Cox over the top.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Likely D, CA Hispanic turnout is always higher in presidential years

[morgieb]

Friendly reminder that Cox won the seat in 2018 despite losing the primary by like 65/35. And turnout in this seat is always significantly higher during general than special elections.

If the Dems only lost it 52/48, that means he's probably in an OK position. My only concern is that corruption scandal.

[SevenEleven]

If the Dems only lost it 52/48, that means he's probably in an OK position. My only concern is that corruption scandal.

The biggest concern is the district spans multiple media markets and the Dem bases are very far apart while the Republican base is more concentrated, along with your normal Hispanic and low-income turnout issues.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In my opinion, one of the most likely seats to flip for the republicans this year. Cox didn't break 40% in the primary, and that was with him being an incumbent and a competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, and now Cox is embroiled in a scandal due to his unpaid taxes.

I rate this race Likely R, Valadao +6.

If primary results mattered

*CA-49 would've been the only '18 House flip in California.
*Catherine Baker & Janet Nguyen would've cruised to re-election.
*Democrats wouldn't have supermajorities in the Assembly/Senate.
*My current Congressman would've gotten crushed in 2012.
*I'd currently be represented by a Republican Assemblyman.

California is one of the worst states to prognosticate based on primary results

[nerd73]

Likely D. Biden will carry the seat by double-digits, and that factor is going to be very hard to overcome for a Republican challenger.

[Roll Roons]

In my opinion, one of the most likely seats to flip for the republicans this year. Cox didn't break 40% in the primary, and that was with him being an incumbent and a competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, and now Cox is embroiled in a scandal due to his unpaid taxes.

I rate this race Likely R, Valadao +6.

If primary results mattered ballot harvesting wasn’t in place.

*CA-49 would've been the only '18 House flip in California.
*Catherine Baker & Janet Nguyen would've cruised to re-election.
*Democrats wouldn't have supermajorities in the Assembly/Senate.
*My current Congressman would've gotten crushed in 2012.
*I'd currently be represented by a Republican Assemblyman.

California is one of the worst states to prognosticate based on primary results

And I say that as someone who will vote for Biden and supports mail-in voting. Garcia’s win shows what happens when Democrats can’t harvest ballots.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D. At first, I thought it was Likely D because of the partisanship and because I thought Latino turnout will be significantly higher in 2020 (it will). However, Cox's weak showing in the primary combined with Biden's lackluster polling with Latinos suggests that it will not be nearly as easy to hold as I previously thought.

[kph14]

Am I the only one who surprised how strong the Democratic vote was in the primary? 48% with a base that really needs to be pushed to turnout in any election that is not the presidential

[We Live in Black and White]

In my opinion, one of the most likely seats to flip for the republicans this year. Cox didn't break 40% in the primary, and that was with him being an incumbent and a competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, and now Cox is embroiled in a scandal due to his unpaid taxes.

I rate this race Likely R, Valadao +6.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Am I the only one who surprised how strong the Democratic vote was in the primary? 48% with a base that really needs to be pushed to turnout in any election that is not the presidential

No, me too. I actually forgot that, I was thinking of 2018 numbers. Getting pretty close to Safe D.

[Del Tachi]

Tossup/Tilt R, its a top GOP target and definitely the likeliest CA seat to flip back.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tossup/Tilt R, its a top GOP target and definitely the likeliest CA seat to flip back.

🤡🤡🤡

Cox won with midterm turnout when the Democratic base in this district was completely asleep. Not only will TJ Cox win by more, he will win by 10%+ in this Safe D seat.

[SevenEleven]

And I say that as someone who will vote for Biden and supports mail-in voting. Garcia’s win shows what happens when Democrats can’t harvest ballots.

You are seriously extrapolating a low turn out election during an on-going pandemic?

Ridiculous take.

[Xing]

Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. I welcome Republicans to spend the kitchen sink trying to win back this seat that might go for Biden by close to 20.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Likely D. Ticket-splitting is dead, Cox is the incumbent, and there are a lot of low-propensity voters here who will only show up in November for Biden and then vote for every downballot Dem.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Both Cox and Valadao are penniless fools. Valadao is just better at hiding it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Am I the only one who surprised how strong the Democratic vote was in the primary? 48% with a base that really needs to be pushed to turnout in any election that is not the presidential

There was a competitive Democratic presidential primary on the same day. I'm not impressed at all. I think Cox will win but his primary showing was really surprising to me.