MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-biden-holds-small-lead-over-trump-in-2020-presidential-race/570709192/

A new Minnesota Poll conducted by the Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11, found Biden ahead of Trump 49% to 44% in the general election matchup less than six months ahead of Election Day. Biden fell just short of a majority, but 7% of Minnesotans said they are still undecided.

Conducted by Mason Dixon Polling

[Minnesota Mike]

More info

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/24/poll-biden-has-slight-edge-on-trump-in-minnesota

[Minnesota Mike]

Mason-Dixon typically underpolls Democrats slightly in MN ...

FWIW in their last poll (last October) Mason Dixon had Biden +12 (50-38).  Biden's # is pretty much unchanged but Trump picked up some undecideds.

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, I wanna see a KSTP/SUSA poll of Minnesota. They got 2018 pretty on the nose here. The Strib can be a bit all over the place sometimes.

KSTP/SUSA had a poll out lat weekend but for some reason did not ask horse race questions. Mainly about CV-19.  Had Trump 34-59 on his handling of the coronavirus.

[Minnesota Mike]

FWIW looks about right to me. My gut says Biden may be up a little more than that but that's probably just my bias. Self identified party ID. 38D/33R/29I,  is a little closer than most Minnesota polls.

[Minnesota Mike]

To be honest, I don't buy Trump having gained this much on Biden since last October. It is contrary to what all other polls show.

I think last Octobers poll was probably an outlier. Last October they had Trump getting 80% of Republicans, this poll has him getting 95% of Republicans. Movement tword Trump is just the base coming home as expected.

[Minnesota Mike]

People forget Clinton got a lower percentage of the vote in Minnesota than in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Biden being up at 49% of the vote (with 7% undecided) and up 5% is perfectly compatible with a relatively easy Biden national win.

[Minnesota Mike]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

[Minnesota Mike]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

[Minnesota Mike]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

Minnesota has a high 3rd party vote fairly often. It also has a pretty hard ceiling for Republican presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton got less than 30% in Utah. How is that "left" of the nation?

PVI is a useless metric.

Make up your mind. You say Minnesota did not vote to the right of the nation because Trump received a smaller percentage of the total vote in MN than he did nationwide. Same is true in Utah.

To be clear I think 2 party vote is the best metric for determining how right/left a state voted. Minnesota voted slightly to the right of the nation as a whole. Utah voted very far to the right.