MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5

[LiberalDem19]

Yeah, I wanna see a KSTP/SUSA poll of Minnesota. They got 2018 pretty on the nose here. The Strib can be a bit all over the place sometimes.

I'm also haveing a tough time believing Hennepin/Ramsey will split 62-29, given that Trump didn't even get that last time. Knowing the geographic regions that they use, I can believe the other numbers though.

[LiberalDem19]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

Minnesota has a high 3rd party vote fairly often. It also has a pretty hard ceiling for Republican presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton got less than 30% in Utah. How is that "left" of the nation?

PVI is a useless metric.

Make up your mind. You say Minnesota did not vote to the right of the nation because Trump received a smaller percentage of the total vote in MN than he did nationwide. Same is true in Utah.

To be clear I think 2 party vote is the best metric for determining how right/left a state voted. Minnesota voted slightly to the right of the nation as a whole. Utah voted very far to the right.

Then MN voted to the left of the country in 2018 by about 4-5% when there were a bunch of races without a Republican in them

[LiberalDem19]

Minnesota is a battleground - no doubt about it.   Walz may bring down Biden as support for his coronavirus response is tanking with his nonsensical and inconsistent rules.

My guess is if this poll was taken entirely after Walz's latest announcement last Wednesday - when he continued to ban church services and limited restaurants/bars to outdoor service only on June 1- the margin would be even closer.

Without a doubt, Trump had the edge among all the fellow Minnesotans I encountered while having dinner in Wisconsin yesterday.

Lol yea ok. Number one, Minnesotans like Walz. He had a 70-80% approval rating before laxing rules. Second, the last poll showed 67% think our response is just about right or not going far enough. Walz is not hurting Biden.