MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,283
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« on: May 24, 2020, 02:34:03 PM » |
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Don’t think of it as a state which hasn’t voted R since 1972, think of it as a state which was closest to the national result (after Nevada) in 2016. If its R trend (slightly) continues in 2020 and MN votes 1-2% to the right of the nation or so, Biden +5 will be consistent with a Biden +6-7 lead nationally, which is a very believable outcome.
Of course, given the Democrats' popular vote advantage and some of the trends we’ve seen in the Twin Cities, there’s no reason to expect Trump to win MN in a year like this, but I don’t think this result is necessarily a pro-R outlier.
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