MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5

[TC 25]

Minnesota is a battleground - no doubt about it.   Walz may bring down Biden as support for his coronavirus response is tanking with his nonsensical and inconsistent rules.

My guess is if this poll was taken entirely after Walz's latest announcement last Wednesday - when he continued to ban church services and limited restaurants/bars to outdoor service only on June 1- the margin would be even closer.

Without a doubt, Trump had the edge among all the fellow Minnesotans I encountered while having dinner in Wisconsin yesterday.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Minnesota is a battleground - no doubt about it.   Walz may bring down Biden as support for his coronavirus response is tanking with his nonsensical and inconsistent rules.

My guess is if this poll was taken entirely after Walz's latest announcement last Wednesday - when he continued to ban church services and limited restaurants/bars to outdoor service only on June 1- the margin would be even closer.

Without a doubt, Trump had the edge among all the fellow Minnesotans I encountered while having dinner in Wisconsin yesterday.

LOL!

[LiberalDem19]

Minnesota is a battleground - no doubt about it.   Walz may bring down Biden as support for his coronavirus response is tanking with his nonsensical and inconsistent rules.

My guess is if this poll was taken entirely after Walz's latest announcement last Wednesday - when he continued to ban church services and limited restaurants/bars to outdoor service only on June 1- the margin would be even closer.

Without a doubt, Trump had the edge among all the fellow Minnesotans I encountered while having dinner in Wisconsin yesterday.

Lol yea ok. Number one, Minnesotans like Walz. He had a 70-80% approval rating before laxing rules. Second, the last poll showed 67% think our response is just about right or not going far enough. Walz is not hurting Biden.

[pbrower2a]

That poll shows a tendency of a major Trump collapse. Trump ending up with about 80 electoral votes?

What will the American electorate look like in its beliefs if such is the result? That is about a 56-42 split in the popular vote.

1. Although Trump supporters will be as fanatical as ever, that will be almost his entire support.
2. Ethnic polarization will have significantly eroded in the Deep South. Although blacks will still vote heavily for Biden (Trump has nothing to offer blacks at any level of social-economic-status and the Best and Brightest among blacks know that well), whites in the Deep South will often drift away significantly from the GOP "plantation" -- maybe enough to give results like those for Carter in 1976 in those states.   
3. He is even in Indiana. Should Indiana get an unusually high level of voting, then such will help Democrats.
4. It is hard to determine whether Trump gets more culpability for bungling the response to COVID-19 or for the economy. Both intertwine. The economy might be back to normal in June... 2021. For that Biden will get the credit.
5. The only good news is that the stay-at-home orders make mass anti-Trump rallies implausible.   

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hopefully this leads to an Amy VP slot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That poll shows a tendency of a major Trump collapse. Trump ending up with about 80 electoral votes?

What will the American electorate look like in its beliefs if such is the result? That is about a 56-42 split in the popular vote.

1. Although Trump supporters will be as fanatical as ever, that will be almost his entire support.
2. Ethnic polarization will have significantly eroded in the Deep South. Although blacks will still vote heavily for Biden (Trump has nothing to offer blacks at any level of social-economic-status and the Best and Brightest among blacks know that well), whites in the Deep South will often drift away significantly from the GOP "plantation" -- maybe enough to give results like those for Carter in 1976 in those states.   
3. He is even in Indiana. Should Indiana get an unusually high level of voting, then such will help Democrats.
4. It is hard to determine whether Trump gets more culpability for bungling the response to COVID-19 or for the economy. Both intertwine. The economy might be back to normal in June... 2021. For that Biden will get the credit.
5. The only good news is that the stay-at-home orders make mass anti-Trump rallies implausible.   

Trump is not ending with only 80 EC votes, he, ha

[Jopow]

Actually, this poll is much closer. Weighted by region Biden is up only 3.5 points, and weighted by party ID Biden is up a bit more than 1 point.

[ShamDam]

States trend in different directions! It's not all going to be unambiguously good news for Biden. All this means is that Biden can't take the state for granted. Trump isn't favored to win right now, but in the event that he does, this state is one of his few realistic Clinton 2016 pickup opportunities (along with Maine and New Hampshire). If he's gonna shock the world again, this is where it would happen.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Minnesota President by Mason-Dixon on 2020-05-20

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[SaneDemocrat]

Need an update on this poll obviously

[TC 25]

Ignore me at your. own risk but Minnesota is very much in play, particularly after the events of the last few days.

[The Mikado]

No doubt the people who commissioned this poll wish they'd waited a few weeks.

I wish this were more like earlier cycles when local news outlets were robust enough to commission monthly polling of their states. We'll be lucky if STrib and MPR poll MN again in August or September.

[Duke of York]

Ignore me at your. own risk but Minnesota is very much in play, particularly after the events of the last few days.

prove it

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ignore me at your. own risk but Minnesota is very much in play, particularly after the events of the last few days.

National polls from the last few days do not support this notion. But I guess we'll see the next time there is a Minnesota poll.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Actually, this poll is much closer. Weighted by region Biden is up only 3.5 points, and weighted by party ID Biden is up a bit more than 1 point.

Solid first post. Are you Mark Penn?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ignore me at your. own risk but Minnesota is very much in play, particularly after the events of the last few days.

National polls from the last few days do not support this notion. But I guess we'll see the next time there is a Minnesota poll.

I could imagine a world in which what's going on is that Biden has taken a hit in the Upper Midwest but has suddenly opened up a lead in places like Georgia. I'm not at all convinced of that, but it is possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ignore me at your. own risk but Minnesota is very much in play, particularly after the events of the last few days.

National polls from the last few days do not support this notion. But I guess we'll see the next time there is a Minnesota poll.

I could imagine a world in which what's going on is that Biden has taken a hit in the Upper Midwest but has suddenly opened up a lead in places like Georgia. I'm not at all convinced of that, but it is possible.

Maybe, but if Biden really is leading how he seems to be in these polls I don't see any way for him to lose a Clinton state like Minnesota.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ignore me at your. own risk but Minnesota is very much in play, particularly after the events of the last few days.

National polls from the last few days do not support this notion. But I guess we'll see the next time there is a Minnesota poll.

I could imagine a world in which what's going on is that Biden has taken a hit in the Upper Midwest but has suddenly opened up a lead in places like Georgia. I'm not at all convinced of that, but it is possible.

Maybe, but if Biden really is leading how he seems to be in these polls I don't see any way for him to lose a Clinton state like Minnesota.

Yeah, I agree. Just trying to acknowledge all the possibilities, even the ones I think are Trumpist wishful thinking/Democratic gevalting.

[Jopow]

Actually, this poll is much closer. Weighted by region Biden is up only 3.5 points, and weighted by party ID Biden is up a bit more than 1 point.

Solid first post. Are you Mark Penn?

Haha no. All you have to do is go to Wikipedia 2016 election in Minnesota and weight counties by their percent of the entire vote. For party ID, weight the parties by what percent of the vote they were in 2016.